Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
203 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storms are expected across the area today with a cold
  front pushing eastward which will allow for a decrease in
  precipitation to occur from the west to the east through the
  rest of today. Heavy to moderate rain is still possible west
  of I-69 where a flood watch remains in effect.

- Severe storms capable of damaging straight-line winds are
  possible east of I-69 later this afternoon and into the early
  evening.

- Cooler and drier weather returns Sunday-Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

With the warm front (quasi-stationary boundary) slowly pushing
northward into central MI and northern OH/Lake Erie we have
seen some clearing taking place mainly south and east of I-69
where temperatures have been allowed to shoot up into the 70s
meanwhile back within the cloud shield associated with the
previously mentioned boundary and a cold front associated with
an occluding surface low pressure system currently centered over
central MN and moving slowly eastward have been cooler. The
western and northern portions of the area with the cloud cover
have only seen temperatures getting into the lower 60s this
afternoon. Mesoscale guidance also puts the better instability
and shear values east of I-69 and the higher values to our
northeast. ML CAPE expected to be 1000 J/kg or less and the
surface bulk shear values around 40 to 50 kts. The fairly uni-
directional shear values aloft hint at the main threat being
strong straight line winds. Of course there is some weak
helicity especially to our northeast and closer to the
warm/stationary boundary where a few quick tornado spin ups
would be possible. The best timing still looks to be after 1 PM
through around 7 PM EDT and most of the activity looks to move
eastward out of the CWA after that period.

With the cold front pushing through the area tonight we will see
a cooler and drier airmass push in for the Easter Sunday and
into the middle of the week. Highs for Easter and through
Wednesday will be much cooler only getting into the mid 40s to
lower 50s for Sunday and Monday and a touch cooler on Tuesday
with highs only in the 40s across the area. A few weak
disturbances will ripple through the region within the northwest
flow aloft with a slight chance of showers returning on late
Sunday night into Monday morning with the best chances north of
US-30. A few snow showers could mix in with the rain for our far
northern portions of the CWA in southern MI but impacts not
expected at this time. Low temperatures on Monday morning will
range from the lower 30s to our northeastern locations and in
the upper 30s for the southwestern parts of the CWA. We will be
watching carefully the cold low temperatures on Tuesday morning
with clearing skies allowing for better radiational cooling lows
on Tuesday morning will get down into the low to upper 20s with
again the colder temperatures in our north and east. Would not
be a bad idea to cover any frost susceptible plants with the dip
in temperatures.

Wednesday we start to see ridging over the middle of the CONUS
push eastward into the region and bring a warming trend into the
weekend with highs by Wednesday returning into the 60s and by
Thursday through Saturday getting warmer into the mid 60s to low
70s into the weekend. There is the expectation that we may see
periods of showers and even a few thunderstorms through the
remainder of the period with a trough settling in just to the
north of the area. Thinking the afternoon periods would be when
the chances of the showers/t-storms would be higher. Will have
to see how the synoptic pattern plays out here in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the majority of this
forecast period. With a cold front moving eastward through the
area will see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and a few
thunderstorms especially for KFWA from 18z to 23z Sat with the
vsbys dropping down to around 2SM with the heavier downpours.
Conditions expected to improve in the wake of the cold front
with cigs increasing, however there is some uncertainty with the
very moist surfaces with the abundance of rain recently that
some scattered lower MVFR clouds may hang on through the end of
this TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ078>080-177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Andersen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
409 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-103-104-116-203-204-216-MIZ078>080-177-
277-050815-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-
Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-
Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Northern Berrien-
Southern Berrien-
409 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 /309 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ020-022>027-032>034-MIZ081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-
050815-
White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-
Jay-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-
Van Wert-Allen OH-
409 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible east of
Interstate 69 this afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed east of Interstate 69.

LMZ043-046-050815-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
409 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are possible again late Monday
into early Tuesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
139 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

INZ018-OHZ015-024-041815-
Allen IN-Van Wert OH-Paulding OH-
139 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN...PAULDING
AND NORTHWESTERN VAN WERT COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

At 139 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monroeville, or 7 miles southeast of New Haven, moving northeast at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, New Haven, Paulding, Antwerp, Woodburn, Monroeville,
Payne, Middletown, Dixon, Latty, Cecil, Broughton, Arthur, Charloe,
Edgerton In Allen County, Zulu, Mcgill, Townley, Worstville, and
Hessen Cassel.

This includes Interstate 469 between mile markers 10 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4092 8480 4092 8505 4100 8516 4127 8480
      4125 8480 4125 8446 4121 8446 4121 8434
      4116 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 227DEG 46KT 4097 8495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

INZ027-OHZ015-024-041815-
Adams IN-Van Wert OH-Paulding OH-
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ADAMS...
SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING AND VAN WERT COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

At 149 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Decatur, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Van Wert, Decatur, Delphos, Convoy, Ohio City, Middlebury, Middle
Point, Grover Hill, Willshire, Scott, Haviland, Wren, Wetzel,
Monmouth, Glenmore, Roselms, Cavett, Dull, Abanaka, and Rivare.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4084 8434 4073 8466 4073 8480 4068 8480
      4066 8484 4087 8501 4092 8489 4092 8481
      4096 8480 4110 8447 4099 8439 4099 8440
      4090 8440 4090 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 227DEG 46KT 4080 8483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
209 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

OHZ004-015-041845-
Defiance OH-Paulding OH-
209 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DEFIANCE AND NORTHEASTERN
PAULDING COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 209 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Paulding, or 12 miles southwest of Defiance, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Defiance, Paulding, Cecil, Evansport, Jewell, Arthur, Brunersburg,
Charloe, Mark Center, Ayersville, and The Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 8434 4114 8434 4109 8456 4124 8474
      4143 8440 4143 8423 4117 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 238DEG 40KT 4118 8457

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown