Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
311 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight Risk for severe weather into tonight (level
  2 of 5).

- Storms across far northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio may
  produce wind gusts over 60 mph and hail to 1 inch in diameter
  through 6 PM EDT this evening.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
  along and ahead of a cold front this evening. Damaging winds
  of 60-70 mph, large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter,
  isolated tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall are all
  possible. The period of this greatest threat is from 6 PM EDT
  to 11 PM EDT.

- Much cooler Wednesday with afternoon temperatures 50 to 55.

- A conditional threat of severe weather is expected for
  Thursday afternoon and evening, and potentially again
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The initial severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled for
areas west of I-69 with near term threat across far NE
Indiana/NW Ohio. However, additional weather watches may be
needed this evening.

A small scale convectively enhanced short wave has led to
extensive shower and thunderstorm coverage, with bulk of these
showers and storms approaching the IN/OH stateline as of 1830Z.
These storms have been sub-severe across the bulk of the area
this afternoon, with slightly elevated nature of the storms.
These storms are beginning to enter an environment more likely
supportive of surface based convection so would expect these
storms to strengthen, with wind/hail potential through 21Z.

A rather complicated convective scenario evolving upstream
regarding this evening's severe weather potential locally.
Convection has developed along cold frontal boundary from
southwest Wisconsin into east central Wisconsin this afternoon,
with second area of favored convection in west-east oriented
possibly more related to outflow remnants from earlier today
northern Illinois convection. After some stabilizing influence
from convective cluster across northern Indiana this evening,
pooling of moisture along these upstream boundaries and
clearing skies south of this boundary could support period of
more vigorous convection. The main item of uncertainty is
concerning convective mode and if any discrete cells can
develop along this northern IL west-east boundary or if primary
cold front and boundary parallel component of shear result in a
more rapid linear mode transition. Low level flow should tend
to strengthen in pre-frontal environment moving in from the
west and this should tend to elongate hodographs from a time
late afternoon into early this evening with a potential of some
increase in tornado potential. May also need to monitor for
possibility of smaller line segments gaining a larger component
of line normal shear that could yield some areas of enhanced
wind potential. This threat should tend to diminish by the 03Z
timeframe as sfc front sinks southward and instability
magnitudes gradually diminish. This boundary should tend to slow
its southward progress tonight along US Route 24 corridor which
could lead to some locally heavy rainfall concerns that
persists into the first part of Wednesday.

This boundary will return northward as a warm front later
Wednesday night into early Thursday with some additional
scattered convection possible with this feature. Attention will
then turn to some pooling of pre-frontal moisture in advance of
more amplified system for the late Thursday period. Instability
magnitudes are still somewhat of low confidence in pre-frontal
zone locally on Thursday, with perhaps best severe threat
initially closer to better dynamics and cold front upstream
across northern Illinois. The entire forecast area is in an SPC
Day 3 Outlook to highlight this potential.

The track of the Thursday upper level short wave will be
primarily northeast across the Great Lakes which will not allow
the associated cold front to make much southward progress
before retreating north as a warm front. Another severe threat
may accompany another cold frontal passage with approach of
stronger upper low for Saturday.

Temperature wise, cooler conditions on Wednesday will be short-
lived with temperatures back into 70s for Thursday and Friday.
It finally appears a break in this active pattern could be
taking shape 2nd half of weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A small scale convectively enhanced short wave has led to
the development of showers and thunderstorms across northern
Indiana with thunder likely at KFWA in the 18Z to 20Z timeframe.
These storms to this point appear to be slightly elevated which
has limited strength of winds. These storms may intensify as
they track east of I-69 over next few hours. These storms will
likely produce brief heavy rainfall and small hail at KFWA.
Additional scattered showers and storms are expected to develop
after 21 or 22Z across northwest Indiana, eventually spreading
eastward this evening as cold front sinks southeast. A secondary
pocket of instability, likely surface based, should allow these
storms to become stronger with a wind/hail threat. Post-frontal
rain and embedded storms will likely continue at KFWA through
late evening, with early diminishment at KSBN. Cigs should
deteriorate behind the sfc front tonight with lower end MVFR
cigs becoming likely at both terminals. Otherwise, windy
conditions with gusts to 25 to 30 knots are expected ahead of
the front this afternoon, with the strongest winds at KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Marsili

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
704 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NE Fort Wayne         41.12N 85.08W
03/31/2026  M61 MPH          Allen              IN   Amateur Radio

&&

NDM

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
732 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Talma               41.17N 86.31W
03/31/2026                   Fulton             IN   Public

            Photo on Facebook of a tree uprooted onto a
            house n SR 110 on the Marshall and Fulton
            County line. No injuries. Time estimated via
            radar.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
735 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Beaver Dam Lake         41.09N 85.97W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Picture on Facebook of large tree branches
            down near Beaver Dam Lake. Public report
            also says a barn was damaged. Time estimated
            via radar.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
736 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     Hail             1 ESE Palestine         41.17N 85.94W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Quarter size hail at Palestine Lake. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

MJ