Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
741 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening for
  southerly wind gusts up to 55 mph.

- A line of showers and thunderstorms moves through from west
  to east this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
  hazard.

- Breezy, cold, with lake effect snow on Monday. Wind gusts of
  30 to 40 mph with snow will result in worsening travel
  conditions Monday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

- Very cold through at least Wednesday morning with morning wind
  chills ranging from about 0 to 15 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Little change in thinking into tonight through Tuesday morning as a
major early spring storm system tracks through the region. As of
17z, a ~993 mb sfc low was analyzed near the IA/IL border. This
feature will continue to deepen east-northeast as its mid level
shortwave takes on a negative tilt and eventually closes off a deep
tropospheric low center north through the western and northern Great
Lakes tonight into Monday.

System warm sector continues to build north this afternoon with
strong southerly winds and temperatures surging well into the 60s to
near 70 for most locations. Weakening showers will clip far nw
IN and sw MI this afternoon, with most remaining dry with high
end advisory level wind gusts (up to 55 mph) anticipated at
times.

A more organized line of gusty showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms remains on target to slide east through the area this
evening into the early overnight along an incoming strong cold
front. The strength of the low level wind field with 850 mb
magnitude up around 70 knots does continue to support SPC's slight
risk for iso-sct damaging winds with more robust low topped
convective elements. The potential saving grace this go around is
the overall dearth of instability this far north with models still
only in the low-mid 50s for sfc dewpoints pooled along the front.
May very well just end up just behind a line of showers with gusts
40-50 mph.

Blustery and sharply colder air wraps in under what should be a ~980
mb low into northern Michigan late tonight into Monday. Wind whipped
snow showers should also be flying later Monday morning through
Monday evening cwa-wide as low level lapse steepen under the
eastward advancing deformation/upper trough axis. Expect minor
accums and brief vis reductions outside of our LES belts during this
time. No changes to the Winter Weather Advisory for our northwest
flow LES belts Monday into Tuesday morning from a combination of 2-
5" of accumulating snow, temps well below freezing, and gusty winds
helping to create reduced visbys and blowing snow. Wind chills are
the story otherwise into Monday night and Tuesday, around zero
degrees Fahrenheit.

Ensemble and deterministic model solutions continue to point to late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for the next opportunity for
light snow as a clipper system drops through in northwest flow. The
flow pattern then looks to flatten out a bit thereafter supporting a
warming trend for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions for the first few hours with strong
south/southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front. A few
rain showers are possible ahead of this front, as well as some
turbulence / low level wind shear.

Starting around 02Z, confidence in thunder increases as the cold
front approaches, so did add a tempo for TSRA and IFR
conditions. Once the front passes through, winds will become
more westerly and expect MVFR/IFR ceilings near 1000 ft. This
will last through the overnight hours.

On Monday, winds will become more northwest, and should have
snow showers throughout the day. Toward the afternoon,
confidence increasing in some heavier bands of snow, so did add
a Prob30 for lower visibility.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday to 11
     AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Tuesday for INZ005-006-103-104-204.
OH...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078>081-177-
     277.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday
     for MIZ078-079-177-277.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...NWS

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