Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
243 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk for severe weather exists for this afternoon and
  evening with damaging winds and hail the main threats, but a
  tornado cannot be ruled out.

- A moderate risk for severe weather exists for Wednesday into
  Wednesday night. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes,
  and localized flooding are all potential threats.

- A moderate swim risk for southeast Lake Michigan beaches is
  present today and a high swim risk appears likely for
  Thursday.

- Dry weather returns for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Pretty active period over the next 36 hours or so in terms of
strong to severe thunderstorms. For today's portion of events
there will be two spurts. The first one will consist of showers
and embedded thunderstorms accompanying a shortwave with a weak
quasi-boundary which are currently pushing eastward across the
area. The main impact up to this point has been showers with a
few rumbles of thunder. The second part will be scattered
thunderstorms developing mainly in the wake of the first burst
with increase solar insolation behind this first band. This will
help to increase the SB CAPE values to around 1200 J/kg. The one
thing to monitor will be weak lake breeze boundaries and a
developing warm frontal boundary approaching from the west that
will help provide storms with increased shear and helicity.
Shear values around 25 to 45 knots and helicity values around
100 to 150 m2/s2 will be possible and sufficient to allow for
strong to severe storms to develop. Mid level lapse rate values
of 7 to 7.5 deg/km will be available. A limiting factor will be
the lack of a stronger forcing mechanism and will lead to a
more scattered nature in the storms. Gusty winds and hail will
be the main threats but there is still the possibility for a
tornado or two.

For tomorrow, warm air advection will continue and will see
increasing dew points from the 50s to the 60s. A warm frontal
boundary will be pushing north and eastward and putting us in
the warm sector. As this boundary pushes northward showers will
be on the increase with even a few embedded thunderstorms after
around 10 AM EDT. A few of the storms in this time period could
become strong to severe but should remain fairly tame. By the
afternoon, a cold front will be pushing eastward across IA/IL/WI
and approach our western parts of the CWA after 3-4 PM EDT and
will push eastward through the area by 2 AM EDT. This will be
the main event.

The ingredients look to be well in place and a very hearty mid-
level flow around 60 knots with a low level jet expecting to
strengthen into the evening. This really is a rare type set-up
especially for this time of the year with that much mid-level
flow in this synoptic pattern. SB CAPE values progged around
1500 J/kg with bulk shear values of 50 to 60 kts. Lapse rates of
8 deg/km and PWATs around 2 inches. The forecasted helicity
values will be pretty much off the charts at a 500-600 m2/s2.
Effective layer STP values of 10 to 11. Wow. All threats are on
the table and SPC currently has our area under a moderate to
slight risk for severe thunderstorms and a tornado threat around
15%. The main threats will be very strong gusty winds and large
hail of around 2 inches in diameter and of course tornados,
some becoming long- lived possible. Also, a threat of localized
flooding will be possible with the very efficient rainfall with
the elevated PWATs, even considering the fast moving nature of
the storms. So this is a potentially very dangerous situation
and one would be wise to use caution and stay very weather aware
tomorrow. Make sure to have multiple means of receiving
warnings and keep your cell phones charged up and a fresh set of
batteries in your weather radios in case of power outages.

In the wake of this cold front drier conditions will arrive
with Thursday through Saturday mainly precipitation free. Cooler
temperatures will also continue with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers and storms are currently moving through the area with a
second stronger convective line associated with a cold front
expected after 21Z. Damaging wind and hail are the main
threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. Additionally,
southwest gusts to 25 to 30 kts will be possible through the day
today.

The storm threat should end for SBN around 00Z and then FWA by
around 02Z tonight. Stronger storms with heavy rain are expected
on Wednesday, beginning around 16Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Cobb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
620 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Hail             2 E Stevensville        42.02N 86.49W
06/16/2026  E0.75 Inch       Berrien            MI   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

MCD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
622 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Hail             2 SE Shoreham           42.03N 86.49W
06/16/2026  M0.50 Inch       Berrien            MI   Public

&&

MCD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
624 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     Hail             Berrien Springs         41.95N 86.34W
06/16/2026  E0.75 Inch       Berrien            MI   Trained Spotter

            A large quantity of 0.5 to 0.75 inch
            diameter hail.

&&

MCD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
626 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     Hail             Baroda                  41.95N 86.49W
06/16/2026  E0.50 Inch       Berrien            MI   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

MCD

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