River Flood Warning 41, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1020 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will develop today, some storms
  accompanied by strong to damaging winds late today and early
  tonight. Locally heavy rainfall likely.

- Warm today with highs in the 70s then trending cooler the
  remainder of the week with highs in the 50s.

- Although a chance of rain returns Tuesday night into
  Wednesday, the bulk of the period Tuesday through this weekend
  appears to be dry.

- Frost likely at times Wednesday night through Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Focus continues on 1 or 2 rounds of thunderstorms with
uncertainty remaining as to coverage, duration and intensity
with each one.

Regional radars show a narrow area of showers trying to take
shape from west of Chicago to near Terra Haute. Lack of strong
lift and deeper moisture is limiting this area to sprinkles at
best. The main focus remains on the area of showers and storms
from eastern IA southeast into western Kentucky. CAMs generally
keep this together as it moves NE, reaching west and southwest
areas around 18Z or so and then expanding across the area.
Another line of storms was moving across N Missouri and may
catch up with the above noted area. A rather messy setup may
evolve this afternoon with a non-zero threat of strong to
locally severe storms, but maybe more of a hydro concern as some
of the CAMs do suggest redevelopment or lingering precip across
the area for several hours. Will need to make some modification
to pops over the next hour or 2 to possibly expand/increase
through the afternoon. Trends for any increase in severe weather
will be monitored (brand new Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for
central and southern IL).

Much uncertainty remains for later this evening into the
overnight hours with the evolution of the main show upstream
where a Moderate Risk has now been introduced across portions
of southwest IL into southwest MO where supercells will develop
and expand/congeal into 1 or more clusters/lines that work
towards the area this evening. Impacts from round 1 leave
questions as to the quality of the airmass as these move in. The
greatest severe threat remains with this second round when
better dynamics and possibly instability will exist.

Last, but not least, there are signals of a wake low with the
departure of the first area of convection. HRRR has been the
most persistent with some gust potential of 40 to 50 mph
(locally higher) for a few hours this afternoon. At the present
time, no headlines or significant changes in winds are being
made but trends will be closely monitored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The greatest forecast challenges looming ahead include timing
and coverage of strong to severe storms later today and tonight.
The leading upstream convective cluster had already moved into
western IL at the time of this writing (3AM EDT). Moisture
will surge north into northern Indiana later today ahead of
this activity with dew points in the 60s given the latest HRRR
model data. Given all of the characteristics of the upstream
airmass, an 80 knot mid level jet and the associated kinematics
with this system, severe thunderstorms are expected late today
into early tonight with damaging winds the greatest threat.

A fairly strong low level cap should erode quickly as this
strong system approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms
will fill in rapidly west of the forecast area this morning. The
activity will intensify and move east as the potential for damaging
winds increases. The best chances for severe storms is expected
to be from about 3pm to 9pm EDT.

Much colder air will settle across the forecast area late this
week bringing the likelihood for frost and the potential for
freezing temperatures. Given the recent mild temperatures and
the development of sensitive vegetation, frost and possibly
freeze headlines will likely be needed during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Two rounds of storms still expected today as a strong wave lifts
through the region. The first round arrives 18-22Z with lower
chances for thunderstorms. The better chances will be with the
second round after 00Z. KFWA has the best chance of storms and
it is possible there is very little gap between the two rounds
there. Storms exit by 06Z but MVFR stratus will linger well into
Tuesday morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
604 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-281015-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
604 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 /504 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are likely today into early tonight. There is
a slight risk for severe thunderstorms especially southwest of a line
from Benton Harbor to Warsaw to Portland where damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall are likely and an isolated tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Unseasonably cool air from Wednesday through Saturday will bring near
freezing temperatures at night and may damage early season crops and
plants.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need today and early tonight.

LMZ043-046-281015-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
604 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM
EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early tonight. Some of
these storms could be severe with wind gusts to 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.