River Flood Warning 3, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
116 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight into early Wednesday, the severe threat is decreasing,
  but heavy rain and flooding threat continues. The best
  chances northern half of the forecast area where a Flood Watch
  remains in effect.

- Friday, confidence increasing in the chance for strong winds (45+
  mph).

- Late Saturday into early Monday, we're watching the potential
  for a large storm system is likely to bring wintry weather
  across the Great Lakes region, but the exact location is
  uncertain. As of now, the most favored track for accumulating
  snow is north of the forecast area, across Michigan.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Tonight and Wednesday. The main concern is the risk for heavy rain
from multiple rounds of thunderstorms overnight. There is also a risk
for severe weather, but that will be on the decline overnight.
Damaging wind is the primary threat, with tornado being a close
second threat. The risk for hail is low.

As we go through the overnight hours, storms should weaken as the
instability decreases and the storms become more linear along an
approaching cold front. This will signal the transition from severe
weather to heavy rain. This front will slowly migrate southeast
across the region on Wednesday. So expect showers and thunderstorms
to be widespread Wednesday morning, and gradually decrease in
coverage during the afternoon as the front moves through. However,
northwest winds and cold air advection will lead to scattered
showers, especially near the lakeshore, Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Thermal profiles do cool off, so could see some snow
showers mix in at times, but little to no accumulation is expected.

Wednesday night through Friday. Winds will decrease overnight as
high pressure builds across the region. This will lead to chilly
night, with lows falling into the mid to upper 20s. On Thursday,
southwest winds will increase throughout the day ahead of a potent
storm system that will bring chances for rain (50 to 60 percent
north, 10 to 20 percent south) Thursday night. However, the
strongest winds will be behind the cold front on Friday when
westerly wind gust near 45 mph are possible. Did increase the winds
toward the higher end of the forecast guidance, and it appears that
a Wind Advisory will be needed if things remain on track.

Saturday through Tuesday... We're watching the potential for a large
storm system to move across the Great Lakes this coming weekend and
bring rain to the south, and a band of heavy snow to the north. This
storm is still several days away, so the track will change, but
confidence is at least medium that there will be storm to bring
impactful winter weather to some locations. At this point, the more
likely location for accumulating snow is north of the region, across
Michigan. In addition to the potential for winter weather, there
will be thunderstorms in the warm sector of the storm, but that also
depends on the track of the surface low, and we'll have a better
handle on it as we get closer to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Main concern in the next six hours will be the thunderstorms
that will continue to spread across the region. An unstable air
mass ahead of a slow moving boundary means that thunderstorm
chances will continue into the morning. Winds will shift from
the southwest to northwest as the boundary moves through.
Eventually the storms will slide to the southeast, but rain
showers and MVFR to near IFR cloud will linger through
Wednesday. Conditions start to improve Wednesday evening as
drier air moves across the region.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ early this morning for
     INZ005>009-012-014-015-017-018-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for OHZ001-002-
     004-005-015.
MI...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ078>081-
     177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...NWS
AVIATION...NWS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
232 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     Hail             1 W Berlien             41.63N 84.89W
03/11/2026  E0.75 Inch       Steuben            IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

MCD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
237 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Benton             41.53N 85.78W
03/11/2026  M59 MPH          Elkhart            IN   ASOS

            ASOS station KGSH Goshen.

&&

MCD

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
258 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     Tornado          1 WNW San Pierre        41.21N 86.92W
03/10/2026                   Starke             IN   Trained Spotter

            Spotter had photo of the tornado as it
            entered Starke County north and west of San
            Pierre, IN. Time estimated by radar. Delayed
            report.

0910 PM     Hail             1 W La Crosse           41.32N 86.91W
03/10/2026  M0.70 Inch       La Porte           IN   Public

0927 PM     Tornado          2 ESE English Lake      41.26N 86.79W
03/10/2026                   Starke             IN   Trained Spotter

            Observed tornado by spotter video (delayed
            report).

0935 PM     Tornado          3 N Toto                41.30N 86.70W
03/10/2026                   Starke             IN   Emergency Mngr

            Tornado observed. Damage between East 200
            South and East 50 south. Large diameter
            trees downed.

0935 PM     Tornado          2 WNW Toto              41.27N 86.74W
03/10/2026                   Starke             IN   Trained Spotter

            Healthy 1ft diameter trees uprooted. Some
            snapped at the top.

0935 PM     Tornado          2 WNW Toto              41.27N 86.73W
03/10/2026                   Starke             IN   Trained Spotter

            Spotter said there is damage to numerous
            trees in this area near W County Road 200 S
            on IN-39.

0936 PM     Tornado          1 N Toto                41.27N 86.70W
03/10/2026                   Starke             IN   Trained Spotter

            Tornado picture from spotter sent in looking
            to the west-northwest. Lat/lon is spotter
            location. Delayed report.

0937 PM     Tornado          2 SW Brems              41.32N 86.72W
03/10/2026                   Starke             IN   Amateur Radio

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report to
            tornado from 2 SW Brems. Report of a barn
            destroyed with debris on Route 8 just west
            of the Starke County airport. Time estimated
            via radar.

0937 PM     Tornado          2 SE Brems              41.32N 86.66W
03/10/2026                   Starke             IN   Trained Spotter

            Grain Dryer blown over. Time estimated by
            radar. Delayed report.

0937 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Brems              41.32N 86.72W
03/10/2026                   Starke             IN   Amateur Radio

            Report of a barn destroyed with debris on
            Route 8 just west of the Starke County
            airport. Time estimated via radar.

0940 PM     Hail             2 WNW Brems             41.35N 86.74W
03/10/2026  M0.75 Inch       La Porte           IN   Trained Spotter

0944 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE Brems             41.33N 86.67W
03/10/2026  M51 MPH          Starke             IN   AWOS

            AWOS station KOXI Knox - Starke Co. Airport.

0950 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WNW South Bend        41.70N 86.32W
03/10/2026  M60 MPH          St. Joseph         IN   ASOS

            ASOS station KSBN South Bend International
            Ap.

1056 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Fishers Lake       41.97N 85.60W
03/10/2026  M48 MPH          St. Joseph         MI   AWOS

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from 2
            SW Fishers Lake. AWOS station KHAI Three
            Rivers.

1110 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 NW Michigan City      41.73N 86.91W
03/10/2026  M51 MPH          LMZ046             IN   C-Man Station

1115 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N Benton Heights      42.13N 86.42W
03/10/2026  M44 MPH          Berrien            MI   ASOS

            ASOS station KBEH Benton Harbor.

1148 PM     Hail             Rolling Prarie          41.67N 86.62W
03/10/2026  M0.70 Inch       La Porte           IN   Trained Spotter

0133 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Benton             41.53N 85.78W
03/11/2026  M59 MPH          Elkhart            IN   ASOS

            ASOS station KGSH Goshen.

0208 AM     Hail             2 ENE Salem Center      41.59N 85.10W
03/11/2026  M0.50 Inch       Steuben            IN   Trained Spotter

0224 AM     Hail             1 W Berlien             41.63N 84.89W
03/11/2026  E0.75 Inch       Steuben            IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
357 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     Hail             2 ENE Logansport        40.76N 86.32W
03/11/2026  M0.75 Inch       Cass               IN   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reports penny size hail in
            Logansport.

&&

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
359 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

INZ015-022-023-110830-
Miami IN-Cass IN-Fulton IN-
359 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FULTON...CASS AND
NORTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM EDT...

At 359 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Logansport, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Logansport, Peru, Grissom Afb, Walton, Mexico, Wells, Denver, Fulton,
Macy, Onward, Clymers, Nyena Lake, Leases Corner, Deedsville, Hoover,
Lucerne, Nead, Anoka, Chili, and Stockdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 8637 4069 8637 4069 8646 4071 8653
      4074 8653 4074 8658 4100 8624 4100 8595
      4091 8594 4062 8618
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 233DEG 46KT 4079 8630

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
427 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

INZ017-116-216-110900-
Whitley IN-Southern Kosciusko IN-Northern Kosciusko IN-
427 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM EDT...

At 427 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Akron, or 7 miles northwest of North Manchester, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warsaw, Winona Lake, Akron, North Webster, Pierceton, Etna, Silver
Lake, Leesburg, Claypool, Larwill, Burket, Sidney, Big Barbee Lake,
Ridinger Lake, Monoquet, Irish Lake, Beaver Dam Lake, Beaver Dam,
Little Chapman Lake, and Oswego.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 8602 4109 8604 4137 8583 4132 8565
      4130 8565 4130 8558 4128 8553 4126 8553
      4104 8571 4104 8602
TIME...MOT...LOC 0827Z 225DEG 40KT 4106 8590

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NWS