River Flood Warning 12, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
211 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/storms persist through this afternoon.

- Localized flooding due to heavy rain is ongoing and is
  expected to continue today. Rises on area rivers into at
  least minor flood stage are likely.

- Another round of severe weather is possible Thursday evening
  into Thursday night. There is a Slight Risk for severe
  weather with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes as the main
  threats.

- Mild over the next several days with highs in the 70s Thursday
  through Saturday. Cooler in the 40s for Easter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Active weather continues to start April and a soggy day is ahead as
rain and storms continue. As of 06Z this morning, the cold front
that brought us severe weather yesterday evening has slowed it's
forward progression. The cold front currently extends from Detroit
to Fort Wayne to Lafayette. Highs for the day have already been
reached. With cyclonic, northwest flow and CAA on the backside of
the front, temperatures are quickly falling into the upper 30s
to low 40s. On radar, numerous showers and storms are still
ongoing and will continue through the morning as the cold front
slowly slides southeastward. A series of 500 mb shortwave
perturbations over central Illinois and Indiana will
reinvigorate convection between 09- 18Z. Additional rounds of
rain and storms will continue to lift out of the Ohio River
Valley along and ahead of that cold front as it slowly sinks
southeast. Much of our area still remains in a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 4) for flooding overnight into later this morning.
Expect training showers and storms to repeatedly cause heavy
rain over the same areas. 1-3" of rain has already fallen in the
past 12 hours as of early this morning. Flooding is likely to
continue this morning and afternoon given a very saturated
atmospheric profile (low and mid level RH >90%) and precipitable
water values of 1-1.5" over the area. In addition, very strong
moisture transport is still ongoing at 850mb ahead of the front,
although this will wane as the morning ensues. Ponding on area
roadways and rises on area rivers into at least minor flood are
expected throughout the day today. Rain is expected to taper off
gradually from northwest to southeast after 18z.

After the busiest March for severe weather that our office has ever
had (a record 18 tornado warnings and a record 57 severe
thunderstorm warnings were issued!), we have a quick lull in severe
chances before becoming active once again by Thursday. The Storm
Prediction Center has almost our entire area in a Slight Risk (level
2 of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. Another deepening low
pressure system will traverse the Central Plains and lift up into
the Upper Midwest by Thursday afternoon. A warm front will lift from
south to north across our area Thursday morning. Models vary on
whether or not convection will be ongoing Thursday morning; some
have rain others keep us completely dry in the dry slot of the low
pressure system. With our area once again firmly in the warm sector
Thursday afternoon, even if we do get rain Thursday morning, we
should have several hours for airmass recovery to occur. There could
be lingering outflow boundaries or cloud debris from morning
convection (if it occurs) but mild air returns as temperatures
quickly moderate back into the 70s by Thursday afternoon. Low level
WAA and moisture transport quickly increases Thursday afternoon with
dewpoints climbing into the low to mid 60s. The system's attendant
cold front will sweep across our area Thursday evening into Thursday
night (best guess is somewhere between 00z-06z Friday) bringing
chances for strong to severe storms. On Thursday evening, the right
entrance region of a jet streak will be over our area. This also
coincides with an negatively tilted trough at 500 mb and a 45-55kt
low level jet at 850mb. These features will aid in surface
convergence and enhanced lift ahead of and along the approaching
cold front.

While we may start with a few discrete storms initially, as
more storms pop up into Thursday evening ahead of the cold
front, I'd expect a transition to more of a linear setup with
bowing segments/clusters. A more organized QLCS is also
possible. This setup will favor damaging winds and tornadoes as
the main threats. Low level vertical wind shear is evident in
forecast hodographs, which depict 0-1 km SRH values of 200-300
m2/s2 across our forecast area Thursday evening into the early
overnight. Uncertainties with this setup are with the amount of
instability and potentially poor lapse rates; this could be a
high shear, low CAPE setup as most hi-res and medium range
models only have about 500 J/kg of SBCAPE Thursday evening. Mid
level lapse rates of about 7 C/km Thursday evening also quickly
diminish after sunset with a loss of diurnal heating. As for the
tornado threat, SPC has our entire area under a 5% tornado risk
with CIG1 hatching. While the overall tornado threat is rather
low, it it not zero and if a tornado were to develop, it could
be strong (up to EF2 intensity). Embedded circulations/spin ups
within any bowing segment/QLCS will be possible.

Our active weather pattern looks to continue late week into Easter
weekend. Unfortunately, we just can't seem to get a break longer
than 48 hours from rain/storms. On Saturday, another low pressure
system lifts into the Upper Midwest and it's attendant cold front
moves through our area. Mild temperatures persist with highs in the
70s Friday and Saturday. Easter is looking much cooler following the
cold frontal passage with highs only in the 40s. We maybe dry out
into early next week (not fully putting all my eggs in one basket
for this just yet) as high pressure could work its way into the
Upper Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Another round of thunderstorms will impact KFWA during the next
1-3 hours but these storms will continue to slowly sink
southward through the morning as high pressure/CAA build into
the area. A few isolated storms will be possible 09-15Z this
morning but instability will be much lower by then and will hold
with just a PROB30 mention. Otherwise, IFR or low-end MVFR
ceilings will likely persist at both terminals through the day.
The next round of storms will not arrive until after 06Z
Thursday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...AGD

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Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
100 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     Hail             Knox                    41.29N 86.62W
03/31/2026  M0.70 Inch       Starke             IN   Public

0550 PM     Hail             Claypool                41.13N 85.88W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Time estimated from radar.

0551 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Culver                  41.22N 86.42W
03/31/2026                   Marshall           IN   Amateur Radio

            Tree downed near Washington Street and
            Plymouth Street. Time estimated from radar.

0603 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Tippecanoe          41.20N 86.11W
03/31/2026  M58 MPH          Marshall           IN   Public

            dime size hail also reported.

0605 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Talma               41.17N 86.31W
03/31/2026                   Fulton             IN   Public

            Photo on Facebook of a tree uprooted onto a
            house n SR 110 on the Marshall and Fulton
            County line. No injuries. Time estimated via
            radar.

0610 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mentone                 41.18N 86.04W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Emergency Mngr

            tree blown down and caused roof damage to a
            house.

0610 PM     Hail             Bruce Lake Station      41.07N 86.42W
03/31/2026  M0.75 Inch       Fulton             IN   911 Call Center

0617 PM     Hail             Burket                  41.16N 85.97W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Emergency Mngr

0618 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mentone                 41.17N 86.04W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Large tree snapped in Mentone. Time
            estimated via radar.

0618 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mentone                 41.18N 86.04W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager relayed picture of a tree
            down that took out a portion of a home on
            North Broadway Street. Unknown if any
            injuries. time estimated via radar.

0618 PM     Hail             Mentone                 41.17N 86.04W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Beaver Dam Lake   41.09N 85.99W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Photo on Facebook of several large trees
            down and numerous other smaller limbs. Time
            estimated via radar.

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Beaver Dam          41.09N 86.00W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Photo on Facebook showing a roof torn off of
            a large animal barn north of Akron near
            Beaver Dam. Time estimated via radar.

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Beaver Dam Lake         41.09N 85.97W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Picture on Facebook of large tree branches
            down near Beaver Dam Lake. Public report
            also says a barn was damaged. Time estimated
            via radar.

0620 PM     Hail             Claypool                41.13N 85.88W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from Claypool.
            Time estimated from radar.

0621 PM     Hail             1 ESE Palestine         41.17N 85.94W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Quarter size hail at Palestine Lake. Time
            estimated via radar.

0623 PM     Hail             Claypool                41.13N 85.88W
03/31/2026  E0.88 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Amateur Radio

0624 PM     Hail             3 WSW Winona Lake       41.20N 85.86W
03/31/2026  M1.25 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Photo showing hail just larger than a
            quarter south of Warsaw. Time estimated via
            radar.

0624 PM     Hail             3 SW Winona Lake        41.18N 85.85W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

0625 PM     Hail             Claypool                41.13N 85.88W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Photo on X shows hail up to quarter size in
            Claypool. Time estimated via radar.

0626 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mentone                 41.17N 86.04W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Corrects time of previous tstm wnd dmg
            report from Mentone. Several trees down in
            Mentone. time estimated via radar.

0626 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Beaver Dam Lake   41.10N 85.94W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Emergency Mngr

            Tree downed 950 S between 500 and 600 W.
            Time estimated from radar.

0626 PM     Hail             2 S Claypool            41.10N 85.88W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kosciusko          IN   Public

            1 inch hail on the south side of Burket.
            Time estimated via radar.

0628 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Beaver Dam Lake   41.06N 85.96W
03/31/2026                   Kosciusko          IN   Public

            Roof damage to home between Akron and Silver
            Lake. Time estimated via radar.

0642 PM     Hail             South Whitley           41.09N 85.63W
03/31/2026  M0.70 Inch       Whitley            IN   Public

            Time estimated via radar.

0650 PM     Hail             4 SW Wallen             41.11N 85.19W
03/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Allen              IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0653 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SW Wallen             41.13N 85.21W
03/31/2026  E60 MPH          Allen              IN   Amateur Radio

0655 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NE Fort Wayne         41.12N 85.08W
03/31/2026  M61 MPH          Allen              IN   Amateur Radio

0658 PM     Hail             3 NE Fort Wayne         41.11N 85.12W
03/31/2026  E0.75 Inch       Allen              IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0659 PM     Hail             4 SW Wallen             41.11N 85.19W
03/31/2026  E1.00 Inch       Allen              IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0659 PM     Hail             4 SW Wallen             41.11N 85.19W
03/31/2026  E1.00 Inch       Allen              IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0703 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Hicksville        41.27N 84.79W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   911 Call Center

            dispatch reports roof blown off and barn
            blown down.

0710 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SE Hicksville         41.26N 84.73W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DVI11214 Hicksville.

0710 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hicksville              41.30N 84.77W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   Broadcast Media

            Photo relayed by broadcast media of metal
            roofing thrown into a nearby field in
            Hicksville. Time estimated via radar.

0710 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SE Hicksville         41.26N 84.73W
03/31/2026  M63 MPH          Defiance           OH   Mesonet

            Corrects previous report from 3 SE
            Hicksville. Mesonet station DVI11214
            Hicksville.

0712 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW Mark Center       41.27N 84.69W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   Public

            Barn damaged near Jericho and Roselawn
            Roads. Time estimated via radar.

0720 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Sherwood          41.28N 84.59W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   Public

            Tree down on SR 127. Time estimated via
            radar.

0722 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sherwood                41.29N 84.56W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   Public

            multiple power poles and lines down in
            Sherwood. Time estimated via radar.

0723 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Independence      41.27N 84.31W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   911 Call Center

            dispatch reports roof blown off.

0724 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Sherwood            41.30N 84.55W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   Public

            Trees down at SR 127 and SR 18. Time
            estimated via radar.

0724 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Akron             41.05N 86.03W
03/31/2026                   Fulton             IN   Public

            Roof damage to a home in Akron. Time
            estimated via radar.

0725 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WNW Arthur            41.22N 84.43W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   Public

            Large tree uprooted onto home at the
            intersection of Cromley Rd and SR 111. Time
            estimated via radar.

0726 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Scott                   40.99N 84.58W
03/31/2026                   Van Wert           OH   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Several reports of powerlines down in and
            around Scott. Time estimated via radar.

0726 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Scott                   40.99N 84.59W
03/31/2026                   Paulding           OH   Emergency Mngr

            Power poles down on Dutch-John road east of
            Scott. Reported by Van Wert county emergency
            manager.

0727 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Defiance                41.28N 84.36W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   Public

            Very large tree fell onto car in Defiance.
            Unknown if any injuries. Time estimated via
            radar.

0728 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Independence            41.30N 84.30W
03/31/2026                   Defiance           OH   Local Official

            Dispatch reports roof blown off in
            Independence. Time estimated via radar.

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW North Manchester  41.04N 85.80W
03/31/2026                   Wabash             IN   Public

            Phot on Facebook of damage to a barn on
            Packerton Rd near North Manchester. Time
            estimated via radar.

0731 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     North Manchester        41.01N 85.77W
03/31/2026                   Wabash             IN   Public

            Several large tree branches snapped in North
            Manchester. Time estimated via radar.

0738 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Holgate           41.25N 84.15W
03/31/2026                   Henry              OH   Trained Spotter

            Tree down at SR 18 and Township Rd 15. Time
            estimated via radar.

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Rimer                   40.89N 84.21W
03/31/2026                   Putnam             OH   Emergency Mngr

            power lines downed.

0750 PM     Hail             1 WSW Tunker            41.04N 85.58W
03/31/2026  M0.70 Inch       Whitley            IN   Trained Spotter

&&

Johnson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
110 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     Lightning        2 NE South Bend         41.69N 86.24W
03/31/2026                   St. Joseph         IN   Broadcast Media

            Lightning struck a home in the 1000 block of
            Notre Dame Avenue. Delayed report. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
113 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     Lightning        2 NNE Georgetown        41.76N 86.21W
03/31/2026                   St. Joseph         IN   Broadcast Media

            Lightning struck a home and started a fire
            along Galaxy Drive in Granger. Delayed
            report. Time estimated via radar.

&&

MJ