Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1226 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions to persist into Thursday with
  chances for showers and thunderstorms (40 to 70%) through the
  period. Challenges continue determining the most favorable
  periods, location and impacts across the area.

- Repeated rounds of showers and storms could lead to some areas
  experiencing hydrologic concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The potential exists for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms into Thursday as a slow moving and eventually quasi
stationary boundary sets up across the area. This leads to an
overall low confidence forecast and a more initially conservative
approach, especially in later periods.

In the near term, scattered showers and storms have continued to
develop and move NE across far NW areas with some indications on
satellite development may calm down in this area as the frontal
boundary shifts northeast. Low level moisture is increasing with an
axis of 500 to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE into SW areas ahead of a remnant
boundary/trough residing from central Lower MI to near Chicago and
then to Quincy IL. This will most likely be the focus for additional
showers and storms as we move through the remainder of the
afternoon into this evening with locations closer to Lake MI
seeing activity first. The best shear will remain disconnected
from this boundary and best upper dynamics will push NE leaving
little for storms to work with in terms of organization. Combine
that with decreasing, but not zero, instability after sunset
leads to low confidence on how long any convection survives as
well as risk for renewed development. While I suspect even
likely pops may be overdone into this evening, will leave them
in place during the most favorable window when a weak waves does
move in. Although the marginal risk for severe continues (wind
threat), this may very well be more of a potential hydro issue
with time. Initially, much of the area can take some rainfall,
but if any training occurs this could quickly change as PWATs
over near 2" which could result on 1 to maybe 2 inch per hour
rates.

Beyond tonight, consensus of surrounding offices was generally to
back away from any pops higher than chc given the lack of
consistency in the models, difficulty in timing specific waves and
location of the boundary. Combination of soupy airmass (dewpoints
upper 60s to low 70s), generally uncapped atmosphere (assuming no
convective inhibition from other storm complexes) and pockets of
heating will lead to mainly diurnally driven development outside of
any MCVs or waves. One item to note is the SW to NW flow currently
in place will transition to more west east as the upper flow
flattens out. The chances for localized flooding may then increase
somewhat given the weak flow and risk for training. WPC keeps much
of the area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive rainfall, with Wed
depicting Slgt chc into parts of the area along the forecasted
location of the front.

Forecast left untouched beyond Thursday as the frontal boundary will
likely osculate across the area with 500 mb heights of 594 to 597
dm across the area which may be enough to push the boundary somewhat
further north. However, as we get to the weekend another trough will
slowly edge east and reach the western Dakotas Sunday with a series
of weak disturbances helping to displace the ridge south and
hopefully bring a break in the humidity. Highest pops currently
reside Sat/Sat night and may be overdone (likely to some
categorical) but that far out no changes warranted.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Continued moisture transport into a frontal zone will likely
allow for an additional round of showers and storms (and brief
vis restrictions) this morning, best chances later tonight
through the late morning hours as an upstream MCV tracks in. Low
VFR to MVFR conditions expected to build in just north of the
sfc portion of the front otherwise today with confidence on any
additional thunderstorm activity low (20-30%) by this afternoon-
evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Steinwedel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
927 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

INZ012-014-203-160200-
Marshall IN-Southern La Porte IN-Starke IN-
927 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT STARKE...WESTERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHERN LA PORTE COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT/900 PM CDT/...

At 927 PM EDT/827 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near La Crosse, or 8 miles northeast of Wheatfield,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Knox, North Judson, Culver, Hamlet, La Crosse, Koontz Lake, Oak
Grove, Thomaston, Lomax, Ober, Rutland, English Lake, Burr Oak,
Brems, Tyner, Toto, Hibbard, Winona, Bass Lake, and Donaldson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 8693 4145 8653 4143 8652 4143 8647
      4146 8647 4148 8640 4147 8640 4121 8635
      4122 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 260DEG 39KT 4128 8694

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1017 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

INZ006>009-160245-
Lagrange IN-Noble IN-De Kalb IN-Steuben IN-
1017 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT STEUBEN...NORTHERN NOBLE...
NORTHWESTERN DE KALB AND SOUTHEASTERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 1045
PM EDT...

At 1016 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles east of Lagrange to near Ligonier.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kendallville, Angola, Ligonier, Albion, Fremont, Rome City, Topeka,
Wolcottville, Ashley, Hudson, Cromwell, Clear Lake, York, Brimfield,
Flint, Lake Gauge, Nevada Mills, Brushy Prairie, Pleasant Lake, and
Golden Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 341 and 355.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 146 and 153.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4168 8481 4138 8533 4141 8565 4147 8566
      4172 8525 4174 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 266DEG 28KT 4168 8524 4145 8564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1023 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ESE Wallen            41.13N 85.11W
09/15/2026  E65 MPH          Allen              IN   Trained Spotter

            Spotter indicated they measured it on a
            handheld device. KSMD gusted to 43 kts
            nearby.

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1039 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

INZ007>009-OHZ001-160315-
Noble IN-De Kalb IN-Steuben IN-Williams OH-
1039 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN STEUBEN...NORTHEASTERN
NOBLE...DE KALB AND WESTERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

At 1039 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Angola to near Rome City.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Kendallville, Angola, Garrett, Montpelier, Butler, Avilla,
Albion, Waterloo, Edgerton, Hamilton, Pioneer, Rome City, Edon,
Holiday City, Columbia, Ashley, Hudson, Corunna, and Blakeslee.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 329 and 347.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 155 and 156.
 Interstate 80 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4135 8493 4139 8549 4153 8527 4153 8519
      4158 8520 4163 8511 4168 8440
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 268DEG 33KT 4159 8510 4144 8533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1103 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

INZ017-018-025>027-160330-
Whitley IN-Huntington IN-Wells IN-Allen IN-Adams IN-
1103 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALLEN...SOUTHEASTERN
WHITLEY...EASTERN HUNTINGTON...NORTHEASTERN WELLS AND NORTHWESTERN
ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM EDT...

At 1103 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southeast of Columbia City to 8 miles
southwest of Markle. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, Huntington, New Haven, Bluffton, Ossian, Markle, Grabill,
Aboite, Middletown, Roanoke, Warren, Lancaster, Zanesville,
Uniondale, Vera Cruz, Yoder, Murray, Liberty Center, Buckeye, and
Tocsin.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 0 and 30.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 273 and 315.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 8543 4125 8486 4070 8507 4066 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 254DEG 26KT 4102 8537 4075 8547

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1227 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

INZ026-027-OHZ024-160500-
Wells IN-Adams IN-Van Wert OH-
1227 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WELLS...SOUTHERN
ADAMS AND SOUTHWESTERN VAN WERT COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM EDT...

At 1227 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Berne, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bluffton, Berne, Geneva, Monroe, Ohio City, Willshire, Wren, Vera
Cruz, Ceylon, Reiffsburg, Glenmore, Dull, Abanaka, Jonestown, Linn
Grove, Domestic, Schumm, and Pleasant Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 8517 4084 8452 4073 8450 4073 8480
      4057 8480 4057 8514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 259DEG 40KT 4063 8505

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR