Tornado Warning 6, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
614 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon into the evening

- All severe hazards are possible, with the greatest tornado
  potential south of I-70.

- Strong wind gusts up to 45 mph late tonight through early
  afternoon Friday.

- Colder for the weekend, with scattered light snow possible Sunday

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 523 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Tornado watch 10 continues for southern portions of central
Indiana. Surface analysis shows a developing meso-low in the
vicinity of the IN/IL border west of Knox and Sullivan counties. The
southern most supercell in a cluster of supercells is currently
latched onto the warm front and will continue to propagate E-NE into
southern Sullivan/far northern Knox counties through 2200Z/600 PM
EST. Low level shear parameters (0-1 km SRH currently from 100-200
m2/s2) will continue to increase into the evening hours to as high
as 300 m2/s2 associate with eastward progression and strengthening
of the low level jet. An increasing tornado threat, possibly
significant, may unfold in the next 2 hrs across SW portions of
central Indiana. Elsewhere additional thunderstorm intensification
is expected along and north of the warm front into central
Indiana including the Indy metro area through 00Z with the
potential for large hail and possibly damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Rest of today/through midnight...

For details on the evolving severe threat across central Indiana,
please see mesoscale updates.

Overnight...

Prefrontal trough/dryline is expected to push rapidly across central
Indiana between 02Z and 05Z, ending convective precip and
thunderstorm chances. As the surface low continues to intensity over
the Mid MS valley (988 mb around near Chicago by 08Z), an associated
cold front will accelerate across central Indiana between 08-12Z.
Strong low level flow (40-45 kts as low as 2000 ft AGL) will couple
with strong cold advection and modestly steep lapse rates below 850
mb to support wind gusts around 40 kts across NW portions of central
Indiana and as high as 35 kts across area along I-70. A wind
advisory was contemplated for far NW portions of central Indiana,
but confidence on meeting over 45 mph gusts for any length of time
is not sufficiently high at the moment. However, an SPS will be
issued for these sub-advisory criteria winds.

Friday...

Winds will continue to be the main forecast concern during the day
along with much colder temperatures. Have undercut NBM guidance by a
few degrees on temps considering overcast skies and continued strong
cold advection in the morning. Wind gusts will remain around 40 kts
across northern portions of the forecast area through the morning,
before a decrease in gusts during the afternoon owing to relaxing of
the surface pressure gradient as the low pressure moves into
northern lower MI as well as gradual decrease in the boundary layer
wind fields.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Friday night and Saturday...

High pressure will nudge into the area and keep conditions dry and
seasonable. Some guidance has rain just south of the area along an
old front, but given the surface high and dry air locally, feel that
odds of rain are too low to mention.

Sunday and Monday...

An upper level low will move southeast through the area on Sunday.
This won't have a lot of moisture to work with, but it will still be
enough for some scattered light snow showers, mainly northeast.

Colder air moving in with the low will generate some lake enhanced
snow showers Sunday night and Monday. The bulk of these should
remain north of central Indiana, but a few could sneak into the
north and northeast.

Temperatures will be below normal with highs in the 30s and lows
mainly in the 20s. Some area could see upper teens Monday night.

Tuesday and beyond...

Upper flow will become closer to zonal as the upper low exits the
area. This will allow seasonable to even above normal temperatures
to return. Highs could be around 50 by Wednesday and Thursday.

A cold front will bring chances of rain around Wednesday and
Thursday, with some uncertainty on the timing of highest PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 614 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening with restrictions

- Gusty WSW winds up to 35 kts late tonight through the day Friday

Discussion:

Convection continues to increase across western Indiana early this
evening and will spread to the northeast through the evening. Storms
will produce restrictions likely to IFR and lower briefly.
Convection will end from west to east by the end of the evening.

Wind gusts will pick up in the wake of a cold frontal passage with
gusts peaking at 25-30kts late tonight. MVFR stratus will return in
the wake of the front and linger into the afternoon Friday before
returning to VFR levels. Windy conditions will continue through the
day on Friday with gusts peaking up to 35kts at times.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
350 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-202100-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
350 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected into the late
evening. Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes are all
possible. The threat exists for a strong tornado south of I-70 until
late evening.

Strong westerly wind gusts from 35-45 mph will develop across areas
north of I-70 late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong westerly wind gusts from 35-45 mph will continue through
early Friday afternoon across areas north of I-70.

Light snow is possible Saturday night into Sunday with little to no
accumulation expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected for this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Crosbie

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
356 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>042-192300-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport,
West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon,
Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson,
Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, and Parker City
356 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

...STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A strong cold front will move through central Indiana after
midnight bringing with it west-southwest wind gusts from 35-45
mph. These strong winds will last through Friday morning before
diminishing early Friday afternoon.

Crosbie

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
407 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>042-200900-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport,
West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon,
Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson,
Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, and Parker City
407 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

...STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A strong cold front will move through central Indiana after
midnight bringing with it west-southwest wind gusts from 35-45
mph. These strong winds will last through Friday morning before
diminishing early Friday afternoon.

Crosbie