Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional showers/storms this evening into next week

- Localized ponding/flooding of low-lying areas will be possible
  where repeated rounds of downpours occur

- An isolated strong/severe storm cannot be ruled out...mainly
  Saturday night into Monday night

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Today through Saturday night...

A mid-level wave pushing through the region and moderate-strong
destabilization will continue to promote scattered convection
through the evening. The disturbance is then expected to shift east
allowing convection to diminish overnight. Severe weather is not
expected due to limited deep-layer wind shear. That said, forecast
soundings depict steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE values up to
1000 J/KG. This could support an isolated strong to severe downburst
this afternoon or evening.

Latest CAMs have gradually become less bullish on the threat for a
strong downburst. This is likely due to early day convection and
clouds limiting limiting destabilization more than initially expected.
Very localized heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out either which may
result in flooding. Storms will be moving E or ENE around 20-30 mph,
but efficient rainfall rates and any brief training could result in
localized flooding.

ANother mid-upper level wave and an associated weak front will move
in on Saturday. Weak forcing from these features along with moderate-
strong destabilization may support isolated convection late in the
day. Convective development remains uncertain due to marginal
forcing for ascent, but if any strong storm can develop then a
strong downburst cannot be completely ruled out given sufficient
DCAPE.

Sunday through next week...

Guidance depicts longwave troughing across the region during much of
the period with multiple embedded shortwaves moving through within
northwest flow aloft. These impulses will promote additional
convective chances at times as deeper moisture surges back into
central Indiana. Expect daily rain and storms chances with low
confidence on exacts details due to varying model solutions
regarding the low amplitude shortwaves passing through. The greatest
precipitation chances are from late Tuesday through Wednesday when
the strongest forcing and deeper moisture overlap.

Some guidance is already hinting at MCSs or storm clusters
developing upstream and propagating towards Indiana at times. Look
for higher uncertainty regarding specific details of each subsequent
round of convection. The evolution of previous day convection could
significantly impact the forecast. In general, models depict strong
destabilization most days and enhancement of mid-upper level flow
from the passing waves. This could potentially support isolated
severe thunderstorms somewhere near the region, but expect
confidence to remain low until models become better aligned.
Localized flooding from repeated rounds of convection and damaging
wind gusts would likely be the primary threats from this setup.

It is worth noting CSU ML severe probabilities have increased
gradually over the past few days and generally highlight the Sunday
through Wednesday timeframe with at least low probabilities. Expect
increasingly warm and humid conditions late this weekend into early
due to warm air advection. The highest heat indices are expected on
Monday when they could peak near 100F across much of central
Indiana. These peak heat indices may not be reached if convection
moves through earlier in the day.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Impacts:

- VFR cigs this afternoon and early evening amid ISO-SCT -SHRA
- MVFR visibilities possible overnight

Discussion:

A warm and moist air mass across Central Indiana with some weak
forcing aloft will allow for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to
develop this afternoon and into the evening. ACARS soundings shallow
CAPE available near 1700 J/KG. This will be sufficient for shra/tsra
development due to diurnal heating. HRRR shows scattered convection
developing across the area after 20Z, persisting until 02Z. Morning
clouds have delayed convective initiation, but GOES19 shows a bit
more clearing to the west should allow for heating to proceed within
the next couple of hours.

After convection ends this evening, a return to VFR is expected, but
dew point depressions overnight remain small amid light winds which
will be an ideal recipe for MVFR fog development.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Melo

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-081845-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Occasional isolated to scattered showers may contain a few embedded
thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected with ponding of low
lying areas following multiple downpours being the greatest threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Expect occasional chances for thunderstorms Friday through
Saturday...and again Monday through Wednesday...for all or part of
central Indiana. It is too soon to determine if any storms will be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
327 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

INZ047-055-056-072000-
Johnson IN-Shelby IN-Marion IN-
327 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Shelby,
northeastern Johnson and southeastern Marion Counties through 400 PM
EDT...

At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Franklin, or 13 miles west of Shelbyville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Greenwood, Franklin, New Whiteland, Whiteland, Fairland,
and Boggstown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 92 and 99.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 100 and 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3950 8605 3960 8612 3970 8591 3956 8577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 249DEG 16KT 3956 8603

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
407 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

INZ048-056-057-072030-
Rush IN-Shelby IN-Hancock IN-
407 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Shelby,
southeastern Hancock and northern Rush Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 407 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Shelbyville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Rushville, Morristown, Carthage, Fairland, Manilla,
Arlington, and Boggstown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 111 and 112.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 102 and 117.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3961 8537 3946 8587 3952 8595 3965 8595
      3984 8561 3983 8560 3979 8560 3979 8555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 240DEG 25KT 3955 8591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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