Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
226 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected at times
  this afternoon into tonight

- Flood Watch in effect through 8 AM EDT Sunday for much of central
  IN; Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible with locally
  higher amounts

- Isolated severe t-storms are possible with damaging wind gusts and
  an isolated tornado threat, mainly over E/SE central Indiana

- Rain chances will persist through the weekend with additional
  chances at times next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This afternoon through tonight...

Current KIND radar imagery depicts increasing coverage of showers
across central IN after a brief lull in precipitation.Increasing
large scale ascent from an approaching mid-upper level vort max
centered over IL combined with low-level theta-e advection ahead of
an associated low pressure system will continue to promote
additional convective development. Expect widespread showers this
afternoon along with scattered thunderstorms once sufficient
destabilization occurs.

Efficient rainfall rates and repeated rounds of showers/storms from
the slow moving system could result in localized flash flooding
through daybreak Sunday. An associated warm front lifting north is
expected to stall near or just north of the I-70 corridor into the
evening hours which may also increase the threat for flooding as
slow moving storms could train over the same areas. A FLOOD WATCH is
now in effect for much of the forecast area through 8 AM EDT Sunday
with rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches expected. Locally higher
amounts of 4+ inches are possible.

Modest to moderate destabilization later this afternoon combined
with sufficient effective wind shear supports the threat for
isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly for E/SE portions of central
Indiana. Forecast soundings depict gradually steepening lapse rates
and mid-level dry air contributing to DCAPE values around 900 to
1100 J/KG which may result in isolated damaging wind gusts. Low-
level veering hodographs from the warm front lifting north could
also promote an isolated tornado threat.

Some uncertainty still remains regarding the overall severe threat.
Mesoscale details such as how far north the warm front moves and the
degree of destabilization or low-level buoyancy later this afternoon
will ultimately determine the severe weather risk. The flooding
threat is the greatest concern, but isolated severe weather remains
possible over mainly E/SE portions of central Indiana. If any severe
weather occurs it would likely be from around 2 to 9PM EDT before
instability weakens.

Sunday through Monday...

The aforementioned low pressure system is expected to still be over
the area on Sunday as it slowly crawls southeastward. Broad cyclonic
flow and lingering moisture will promote scattered or numerous
showers. A low flooding threat may linger into Sunday, but very
limited instability and weaker forcing should lead to lower rainfall
rates. Look for coverage of showers to decrease late in the day into
Sunday night with the system gradually departing.

Surface high pressure building in Monday will provide mostly quiet
weather. However, lingering moisture and daytime heating may support
isolated showers or a stray storm across far southeastern counties
late in the day.

Tuesday onward...

Long range guidance generally shows the aforementioned system
becoming cutoff once again and retrograding towards the Ohio Valley
Tuesday into Wednesday. Deeper moisture advecting back into the
southeast half of central Indiana along with weak dynamics from the
system and diurnal heating keeps low chances for precipitation in
the forecast, mainly during the afternoon or evening. Multiple
embedded shortwaves traversing the region Thursday through end of
the week will promote additional convective chances. Exact details
remain uncertain at this time due to diverging model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Impacts:

- At most, MVFR ceilings through period, down to IFR and even LIFR
at times tonight into the morning hours

- SHRA much of the time, with isolated TSRA possible

Discussion:

Low Pressure over Illinois will advance to Indiana during this
period, with bands of showers pivoting around the low are expected
to pass through the day. Ceilings are expected to be MVFR at most
through the period with IFR to LIFR possible at times mainly within
the rain bands and late tonight into tomorrow morning.

Isolated TSRA will be possible at times with best chances this
afternoon. Winds will be shifting through the period as well around
the low, with calm to light and variable as the low moves overhead,
mainly moving across the south.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-062>065.

&&

AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...Melo

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
154 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-021800-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
154 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected at times. A
Flood Watch is in effect for much of central Indiana through 8 AM EDT
Sunday with the potential for localized flooding. Isolated severe
thunderstorms are also possible with the potential for damaging wind
gusts and an isolated tornado, mainly across east/southeast portions
of central Indiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Sunday. Storms will be capable
of producing locally heavy rain.

Additional showers and thunderstorms possible at times next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed south of the I-70 corridor this
afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

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