Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
216 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms, some severe, possible this evening.

- Dry weather returns for late week into the weekend.

- Hotter and more humid air arrives Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight...

Weak lift well ahead of the surface cold front produced isolated
showers across the northern forecast area earlier. These have since
exited, but the lift continues to produce some clouds across
the area. Can't rule out another isolated shower developing through
mid-afternoon with this lift.

A line of showers and storms has developed in central Illinois this
afternoon. This line is ahead of the surface cold front, which is
farther to the northwest in Illinois. Instability continues to
increase ahead of this line, with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg. With some
heating and moisture advection to go before the line arrives in
central Indiana, the storms should become more numerous and
intensify.

The line will move through the area from northwest to southeast late
this afternoon through this evening. Decent shear will work with the
aforementioned instability to keep a threat of some severe storms
around. The primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail.
However, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially north
where shear is best.

After midnight, only the southeast third or so will still see some
scattered convection around. Instability will have waned by then,
ending the severe threat. By 3 or 4 AM, convection should have
exited the area.

Drier air will lag well behind the front, and winds will diminish
overnight. This will set up the potential for some fog, especially
south where rain will have fallen last.

Lows will generally be in the 60s.

Thursday...

The upper trough will linger across the area on Thursday. Low level
moisture will remain. Any fog will lift early in the day, with a
scattered to broken cumulus field developing. Some CAMs generate
isolated convection Thursday afternoon with some weak forcing from
the upper trough. This certainly cannot be ruled out, but for now
feel odds are below mentioning in the forecast at this time.

Highs will be in the lower and middle 80s.

Friday through Monday...

An upper high will nudge its way into the area during this period.
This will keep the area dry with increasingly warmer temperatures.

Initially dewpoints will be relatively low, but they will increase
Sunday into Monday, making conditions more humid to go along with
the elevated temperatures.

Highs in the lower to middle 80s on Friday will warm to the middle
80s to lower 90s by Sunday. On Monday, highs could reach the upper
80s to middle 90s. Heat indices may be near 100 degrees on Monday.

Tuesday and beyond...

Uncertainty increases in how much influence the upper high will
continue to have across the area. For now, believe it will hang on,
so will go dry the vast majority of the area on Tuesday. By
Wednesday, it may lose enough influence for isolated convection to
develop in the afternoon.

Heat will continue, with highs most likely from near 90 to the
middle 90s. Heat indices near 100 would also then be likely.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered convection mainly 21-04Z
- Areas of MVFR fog overnight, with worse conditions possible

Discussion:

Scattered to broken clouds around 5000FT will continue this
afternoon. Scattered convection will develop later this afternoon
and move south across the sites through the evening.

Overnight, fog and some stratus is likely to develop, especially
across the southern sites. Will go MVFR, but IFR and worse are
possible. This fog will mix out to a scattered to broken cumulus
field for Thursday.

Winds will become west this evening then northwest on Thursday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
305 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-271915-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
305 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move northwest to southeast across
central Indiana into the early overnight. Some severe storms are
possible through this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the
primary threats. Locally heavy rain is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hot and humid conditions will return early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any large hail, wind damage, or
heavy rain through this evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
921 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Centerton               39.51N 86.40W
08/26/2026                   Morgan             IN   911 Call Center

            Corrects previous flood report from
            Centerton. Reports of tree across the road,
            and another tree on a utility pole that
            started a fire. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Crosbie

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
922 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

INZ067-270200-
Knox IN-
922 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Knox
County through 1000 PM EDT...

At 922 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
St. Francisville, or 7 miles northeast of Mount Carmel, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Decker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 8773 3846 8776 3848 8774 3851 8765
      3854 8767 3857 8765 3852 8747 3850 8750
      3850 8753 3852 8754 3849 8754 3850 8759
      3848 8758 3845 8760 3844 8763 3846 8766
      3845 8767 3843 8767 3842 8774
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 294DEG 15KT 3851 8770

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ME

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
925 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Ellettsville        39.23N 86.64W
08/26/2026                   Monroe             IN   Amateur Radio

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1
            W Ellettsville. Several reports of tree
            damage around the Ellettsville area. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

Crosbie

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
949 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Beanblossom         39.32N 86.32W
08/26/2026                   Brown              IN   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking Carmel Ridge Road near
            Richards Rd. From County Highway Dept. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

Crosbie