Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
238 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible, mainly this evening into
  tonight, with damaging winds and heavy rain/localized flooding
  the primary threats

- Additional rain possible at times Friday through the weekend with
  localized flooding possible

- Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity
  than experienced the first week of the month

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Satellite imagery depicts a well defined MCV near St. Louis
progressing eastward. This will likely be the main source of lift
this afternoon and evening, with an MCS likely developing over south
central IL after 4PM. Model guidance is still widely varied on
specific placement of this MCS, but given MCV and LLJ placement, the
current expectation is for this MCS to move through far SW portions
of central Indiana between 7-11PM this evening. Sounding analysis
shows a quasi-inverted "V" sounding in the lowers 1km of which is
allowing for 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE. This should allow for micro-scale
bowing segments along the cold pool, with a damaging wind gust
threat during this same time period. Within any organized segments,
a weak tornadic spin up is possible but given LCL height and weak
boundary layer shear, this threat should remain very isolated.

The next threat tonight will reside with the potential for a remnant
boundary to develop following the passage of the MCV. This boundary
coupled with a consistent 30-40kt LLJ could lead to training
convection south of a Bloomington to Columbus line between 02-08Z
overnight. If this does occur pockets of 2-4" over a 6 hour period
will be possible, with localized flooding threat. As the LLJ weakens
tomorrow morning, convection will eventually dissipate, with most
areas becoming dry by 10Z.

Friday through Saturday:

Another upper level wave will move slowly through the region Friday
into Saturday with a weak surface boundary expected to pass from
north to south through central Indiana during the afternoon and
evening. Models are starting to come to a better agreement on
timing, with convection likely to occur between 4PM and 10PM from
north to south across the region. Shear will be rather weak this
time around, and therefor the severe risk is low for Friday. That
said, there is enough destabilization through a deep saturated
column for an isolated wet microburst to be possible. A quick inch
is possible over a 30min period with these storms as well, but the
movement on these cells should be fast enough to limit the flood
threat for the afternoon and evening hours.

Late tomorrow evening, this boundary is expected to stall near or
south of central Indiana, with another nocturnal LLJ expected to
form. If this boundary stays within central Indiana, there is some
potential for an additional flooding concern Friday night, but
confidence is low on this occurring at this time.

Sunday through Next Week:

The strong upper ridging centered over the Rockies during the second
half of the weekend will shift east into the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys for much of next week bringing a return to a warmer and
drier pattern for central Indiana. Highs will return to the upper
80s and lower 90s through the middle of next week. Unlike the recent
high heat in late June and the first few days of July...temperatures
and dewpoints should be lower through the period which will keep
heat indices largely manageable from a heat stress standpoint...
peaking in the mid and upper 90s.

A few lingering storms are possible Sunday over southern counties as
an upper trough axis shifts away to the south The presence of a
strong mid level cap will largely mitigate convective risks from
late Sunday through Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday...mid level
temperatures will fall weakening the cap with a greater opportunity
for isolated convection focused largely during the afternoon and
evening. A more pronounced threat for thunderstorms will come late
week into next weekend as the ridge suppresses and a cold front sags
south from the Great Lakes. In the wake of this frontal passage...a
cooler airmass will expand into the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Impacts:

- Showers and storms possible at all sites this evening into the
  overnight

Discussion:

VFR conditions will remain throughout the afternoon into the
evening. After 22Z, a MCV will push into Indiana with a broken line
of thunderstorms expected at KHUF and KBMG through 02Z. A remnant
boundary behind this MCV coupled with a LLJ will likely lead to
additional thunderstorms between 02-08Z overnight. Greatest threat
will be at KBMG, but all sites could see a thunderstorm.

MVFR ceilings could be possible tomorrow morning, but confidence
is low.

Winds will be light out of the southwest(200-230 degrees) during the
day, becoming variable after 00Z as the MCV pushes through.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...Ryan/Updike

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
347 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-062>065-072-102000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Jennings-
347 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms will be possible this evening into tonight,
with damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and isolated flash
flooding the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional storms are expected at times through the weekend.
Lightning and localized flooding will be the main threats through the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening into tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ060-061-067>071-102000-
Sullivan-Greene-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-
347 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms will be possible this evening into tonight,
with damaging winds as the primary threat. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are possible overnight, of which could lead to an
elevated flood threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional storms are expected at times through the weekend.
Lightning and localized flooding will be the main threats through the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening into tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
235 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

INZ044-045-051-052-091900-
Clay IN-Putnam IN-Parke IN-Vigo IN-
235 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Vigo,
northwestern Clay, southeastern Parke and southwestern Putnam
Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brazil, or 12 miles northeast of Terre Haute, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Brazil, Seelyville, Knightsville, Rosedale, Harmony, Staunton,
Carbon, Fontanet, Bridgeton, Reelsville, and Lena.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 15 and 21, and
between mile markers 33 and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 8727 3965 8731 3974 8697 3951 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 259DEG 24KT 3958 8720

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
657 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

INZ067-068-092330-
Daviess IN-Knox IN-
657 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Knox
and southern Daviess Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 656 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Petersburg, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alfordsville and Glendale Fishery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 8696 3850 8698 3851 8700 3851 8704
      3850 8706 3854 8711 3852 8715 3855 8718
      3855 8720 3854 8722 3854 8725 3853 8726
      3851 8730 3854 8735 3859 8733 3862 8692
      3851 8692 3849 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 270DEG 31KT 3852 8720

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Crosbie

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
713 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

INZ051-060-092345-
Vigo IN-Sullivan IN-
713 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Vigo
and northern Sullivan Counties through 745 PM EDT...

At 713 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Hutsonville, or 16 miles northeast of Robinson,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelburn, Prairieton, Prairie Creek, Farmersburg, Hymera, Fairbanks,
and Pimento.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3921 8758 3924 8758 3925 8757 3926 8758
      3925 8760 3928 8761 3930 8760 3931 8762
      3931 8760 3934 8758 3934 8756 3935 8754
      3935 8753 3937 8753 3942 8744 3920 8724
      3912 8755 3918 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 236DEG 18KT 3919 8754

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
742 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

INZ045-052>054-100015-
Clay IN-Owen IN-Morgan IN-Putnam IN-
742 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Morgan, east
central Clay, northeastern Owen and southeastern Putnam Counties
through 815 PM EDT...

At 742 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Spencer, or 25 miles northwest of Bloomington,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cloverdale, Paragon, Quincy, Little Point, Eminence, Cagles Mill
Lake, Devore, and Belle Union.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 41 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 8664 3960 8658 3940 8650 3934 8695
      3946 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 247DEG 19KT 3942 8687

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
801 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

INZ067-100045-
Knox IN-
801 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Knox County through
845 PM EDT...

At 800 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sumner to 6 miles southeast of Olney.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Vincennes, Bicknell, Monroe City, Wheatland, Bruceville, Edwardsport,
Decker, and Vincennes University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 8764 3859 8761 3866 8760 3868 8753
      3874 8750 3884 8753 3886 8726 3881 8723
      3878 8726 3874 8724 3869 8728 3866 8726
      3854 8738 3853 8738 3853 8746 3850 8749
      3850 8753 3852 8754 3850 8755 3855 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 289DEG 30KT 3876 8784 3869 8798

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME