Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
308 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/t-storms possible late this afternoon and
  overnight. Gusty winds and localized flooding possible.

- Hot and humid today and Thursday. Heat indices between 100 and 105
  degrees.

- Thunderstorms likely again late Thursday into Thursday night.
  Strong to severe storms possible.

- Slightly cooler weather for the weekend with near average
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

As of this afternoon, central Indiana has low lying cumulus
clouds that have thinned out over the past hour with slight drying
aloft but satellite is already showing the cumulus clouds filling
back in from the SW. CAMs continue to try to have isolated
showers pop up this afternoon, but confidence remains low on those
occurring due to a lack of lift and just not enough instability
yet. The next best chance for showers and storms will be this
evening into tonight with slight severe risk in our far NW.

The pattern aloft is characterized by ridging over the eastern US
and into Canada with troughing over the western US. A slow-moving
vort max displaced from the jet stream meanders over the Great
Lakes. This feature is what has been bringing the near daily rain
chances to Indiana lately. As the western trough moves eastward, the
vort max will eject northeastward. Southwesterly flow aloft then
intensifies, bringing the warming trend for today and tomorrow.

High temperatures through tomorrow will be near 90, with dew points
into the low to mid 70s. Max heat indices are forecasted to be
between 100 and 105, which may lead to enhanced heat risk for
vulnerable populations.

Can't rule out the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Despite minimal forcing, it doesn't take much in such a
humid environment to generate some convective activity. Buoyant
forces alone can get the job done, however as mentioned above,
confidence is low as in hot humid environments, will be hard to pin
point exactly where these showers/storms develop if they do in fact
develop. Activity likely remains isolated to scattered during the
afternoon.

Things change as we head into tonight. Convection initiated from the
approaching trough should propagate southeastward out of Illinois.
This activity is likely to be more organized, especially if it
develops a cold pool and can consolidate into a line. Guidance
suggests that these storms may be outflow dominant as it heads
deeper into Indiana and the system is expected to lose steam as it
approaches our forecast area. If the storms maintain their strength,
can't rule out some severe weather potential with damaging winds as
the main threat and our north having the highest threat.
Additionally, given recent rainfall, a flooding threat could again
materialize.

After a mostly dry day tomorrow, another round of convection
associated with a wave ejecting from the broader trough looks to
arrive late Thursday. Guidance shows a bit more energy in the
atmosphere which could lead to severe thunderstorms at times,
especially northwestern portions of central Indiana. Like this
evening, storms likely become outflow dominant as they head
southeast away from the best forcing and shear. Strong to severe
wind gusts and localized flooding are the primary hazards with the
highest threat in our NW.

Once that system and its cold front pass through late Thursday
night, a transition to a cooler and less active pattern appears
likely. Broad troughing aloft looks to persist this weekend and
into next week, with near-average temperatures (highs near 80 and
lows near 60) along with lower humidity. A few weak waves embedded
within the broader trough may bring rain chances on Sunday and then
again on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. These are subtle
features and are hard to pin point this far out. So we will maintain
only chance PoPs next week until the signal become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Impacts:

-Gusty winds from SW this afternoon, between 20-25kt.

-Showers/storm chances return after 00z.

Discussion:

There is a blanket of scattered Cu across central Indiana this
afternoon. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period but
coverage of the low Cu may occasionally increase enough to to MVFR.
Other worsened condition potential, although low confidence, would
be with the next round of showers and storms expected tonight where
stronger cells could bring MVFR to isolated IFR conditions.

SW winds todays with gusts up to 25 knots are possible at times
during the afternoon hours.

Showers and thunderstorms may redevelop during the evening and into
the overnight. Not the highest confidence in how widespread the
thunder coverage will be so have kept to VCTS for a few hours
tonight. Additionally, showers/storms may continue into the night as
activity from the low pressure to our northwest spreads
southeastward. Showers are expected to come to an end by 12z
Thursday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...KF/Eckhoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
324 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-111930-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
324 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
tonight. Strong gusty winds, localized flooding, and cloud to ground
lightning are the primary hazards.

Hot weather is expected today with highs in the lower 90s. Heat
index between 100 and 105 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hot weather is expected on Thursday with highs in the lower 90s and
heat indices between 95 to 105 degrees.

Chances for storms continue Thursday evening into Thursday Night.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds as
the main threat.

More storms are possible on Sunday through Tuesday. It is too soon to
determine if these storms will be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed both this evening into overnight and
again tomorrow evening into overnight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
650 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

INZ021-029-102330-
Tippecanoe IN-Carroll IN-
650 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Carroll
and central Tippecanoe Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 650 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lafayette, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Delphi, Shadeland, Dayton, Battle Ground,
and Purdue University.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 168 and 180.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central, north central and west central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 8651 4043 8663 4043 8669 4040 8669
      4029 8696 4044 8706 4056 8678 4056 8677
      4057 8677 4063 8663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 243DEG 25KT 4040 8693

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

50

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