Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
158 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected today, severe weather is
  possible this afternoon into tonight.

- Isolated Showers and thunderstorms possible on Tuesday, mainly
  across southern Indiana.

- Cooler temperatures expected Wednesday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Surface analysis late early this morning shows deepening low
pressure over IA and MN, with a cold front extending south across IA
to Central MO and NE OK. An area of strong convection had developed
within the warm sector, over IL and was pushing east toward Indiana.
Cloud tops continue to show steady state or slightly cooling tops.
However the strongest echos were now pushing into a more stable area
of air as showers have been falling in the Wabash Valley. Expected
progression of the storms will be to the east, but conditions across
Indiana were less favorable for convection. A better area for storms
was found across southern Central Indiana with more access to
instability there. Aloft, water vapor shows a moderate short wave
over the Dakotas with a southwest flow of air ahead of this wave
spreading across Illinois and Indiana amid weak diffluence aloft.

Tonight...

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS TONIGHT.

Models show the upper wave progressing across the region, continuing
to spread forcing dynamics across Indiana through the evening,
Caveats have come into play. Namely, the cloud cover across Central
Indiana from convection upstream have not allowed for peak heating.
CAPE across the area remains limited this afternoon and the
convection is expected to spread across Indiana in a decaying state
late this afternoon. This will further diminish our severe weather
threat. Later this evening, HRRR suggests more development over
southern Illinois, pushing east into SW central Indiana. Confidence
is higher for these storms to be strong to severe, perhaps impacting
Vincennes, Sullivan, Linton, Washington and Shoals. Damaging
straight line winds will continue to be the main threat, again an
isolated QLCS tornado.

After a rainy evening, upper forcing is shown to end toward 05Z.
Forecast soundings show drying and subsidence as the upper trough
axis exits to the northeast. Lower level cloud cover should remain
through the night, as lower level moisture remains trapped
underneath an inversion.

Thus overall, high confidence for rain and storms this evening, with
best chances across the southern and southwest parts of the forecast
area. This will be followed by cloudy skies tonight. Little overall
change in the air mass will result in lows only in the upper 50s as
dew points are expected to remain in the 50s.

Tuesday...

Dry weather is expected on Tuesday as the upper flow is
nearly zonal, with little in the way of forcing dynamics passing
across Indiana. Forecast soundings continue to show a dry column
with subsidence ongoing with the departure of the previous wave. At
the surface, high pressure over the northern plains will continue to
spill southeast toward Indiana. Thus after morning clouds, some
afternoon sunshine should become available. Highs will reach the
upper 60s to around 70.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

Showers and Thunderstorms will be expected during this time,
particularly on late Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Models show
another subtle short wave within the broader cyclonic flow aloft
pushing across our region on late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
weak area of surface low pressure is expected to ride this wave,
pushing across KY, and placing Indiana on the NW side of the low.
Forecast soundings show the arrival of deep saturation late Tuesday
Night into Wednesday with pwats as high as 1.7 inches. Thus
confidence is high for another round of rain showers on at this
time. Rain showers will exit by Wednesday afternoon as the upper
forcing and surface low departs. northerly surface winds in the wake
of the this system will allow for cooler temperatures on Wednesday,
with highs only in the lower to middle 60s.

Thursday Through Monday...

Indiana/s weather during this period will be controlled mainly by a
strong area of upper level low pressure over Ontario and Quebec.
This feature is suggested to rotate waves within this flow across
Indiana, mainly on Friday and again on Monday. The upper flow during
this time will be mainly a northwest fetch spilling toward Indiana
from Central Canada, providing mainly dry and cool air, due to the
low to the northwest. It is only when the weak waves pass that
enough forcing will be present to result in shower or storm chances.

Through this period within the lower levels surface high pressure
looks to be anchored over the plains states, keeping mainly westerly
or northwesterly flow in place across Indiana. Models suggest a
poorly organized cold front to pass on Friday, but this system lacks
access to deeper gulf moisture. A weak area of low pressure is
suggested to pass across Indiana on Monday, again associated with
the upper level feature.

Thus will try to contain pop chances to just Friday and Monday, with
mainly dry and cool weather expected on Thursday, Saturday and
Sunday.

As no intrusions of arctic or tropical air are expected, look for
temperatures to be near or below typical seasonal lows.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Impacts:

- S-SE wind gusts 20 to 30 kt with higher gusts in TSRA
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms through 04Z
- LLWS around 45kt Monday evening/night
- MVFR ceilings Monday evening into early Tuesday

Discussion:

Scattered showers have already developed across western Indiana. A
line of thunderstorms over IL will shift eastward across all but
KLAF this afternoon. IFR vis is expected with this convection along
with a wind shift to the W-NW and gusts from 35-45 kts, lasting less
than 1 hr at all the terminals. In the wake of this line, rain
showers with embedded TS is expected for several hours, before
another round of TSRA moves into the region after 23Z. This second
round of TS activity is expected to end between 03-05Z from west to
east as the cold front pushes eastward with an associated surface
wind shift to the west. MVFR ceilings will linger until Tuesday
morning behind the front.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...Puma

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
233 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-281845-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
233 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight. The main threat
will be damaging straight line winds, although isolated tornadoes
will also be possible. Flooding is also possible. The severe weather
threat will end after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

More Thunderstorms are possible again on Tuesday Night into Wednesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor forecast trends this afternoon and
tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
201 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ043>045-051-052-271845-
Clay IN-Putnam IN-Parke IN-Vermillion IN-Vigo IN-
201 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Vigo, Clay, southern
Parke, southeastern Vermillion and southern Putnam Counties through
245 PM EDT...

At 201 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Clinton to near Marshall. Movement was east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Terre Haute, Greencastle, Brazil, Clinton, West Terre Haute, Fairview
Park, Prairieton, Prairie Creek, Seelyville, Knightsville, Clay City,
Rosedale, Harmony, Staunton, Fillmore, Carbon, Universal, Center
Point, Riley, and Bridgeton.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 1 and 36.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
southwestern and west central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 8760 3934 8758 3934 8756 3935 8754
      3935 8753 3958 8753 3971 8740 3974 8669
      3947 8693 3947 8694 3946 8694 3923 8715
      3924 8724 3926 8725 3926 8760 3928 8761
      3930 8760 3931 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 267DEG 41KT 3966 8738 3936 8769

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

White

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
203 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ030-035-036-044-045-271830-
Clinton IN-Montgomery IN-Putnam IN-Fountain IN-Parke IN-
203 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Fountain, southwestern Clinton, central Parke, Montgomery and
northern Putnam Counties through 230 PM EDT...

At 203 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Williamsport to near Veedersburg to near
Rockville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crawfordsville, Rockville, Ladoga, Waynetown, Roachdale, Darlington,
Linden, Bainbridge, Colfax, New Market, Hillsboro, Waveland,
Russellville, New Ross, Bloomingdale, Mecca, New Richmond, Marshall,
Wingate, and Newtown.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 18 and 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
central and west central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 8717 4023 8709 4021 8709 4021 8662
      4018 8662 4018 8670 3974 8669 3972 8733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 273DEG 40KT 4033 8724 4011 8717 3972 8730

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

White

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
211 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     Hail             Washington              38.66N 87.17W
04/27/2026  M0.50 Inch       Daviess            IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

AW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
216 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 PM     Hail             Bicknell                38.77N 87.31W
04/27/2026  E0.70 Inch       Knox               IN   Emergency Mngr

&&

AW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
217 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 PM     Hail             Bicknell                38.77N 87.31W
04/27/2026  E0.70 Inch       Knox               IN   Emergency Mngr

&&

Crosbie

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