River Flood Warning 66, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
719 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain ending today, skies will remain mostly cloudy.

- Slight warmer on Thursday and again on Friday.

- More showers are expected on Friday Night. A thunderstorm possible.

- Largely below normal temperatures through Tuesday with more
  chances for rain on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a trough of low pressure
stretching from NE PA across OH to central KY. High pressure was
found over the Dakotas and MT, spilling SE across the plains and into
the Ohio Valley. GOES19 shows a plume of tropical moisture
stretching from TX to MO, across Indiana and then NE to the St.
Lawrence Valley. Radar shows a large area of showers beneath this
plume, in the wake of the front stretching from NY State across IN
to MO. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow was in place due to a deep area of
low pressure over NRN Quebec. A trough axis rotating around that
low was moving through the upper midwest, with the previously
discussed plume of moisture streaming ahead of it.

Today...

The upper trough axis is expected to sag father south. This will
also steer the moisture plume farther south, and away from Indiana
later this morning, bringing an end to the rain. Still abundant
clouds and moisture will remain, allowing for continued mostly
cloudy skies through the day. Forecast soundings suggest mid level
clouds remaining through the day. Thus will keep some ongoing pops
this morning, before trending toward a dry forecast this afternoon.
Given the clouds and north winds in place, will keep highs in the
upper 50s.

Tonight...

The upper trough axis will sag farther southeast, allowing for more
subsidence to arrive within the mid levels. Furthermore the high
pressure system over the plains will continue to build across
Indiana. Thus, dry weather will be expected with decreasing cloud
cover. Ongoing cold air advection should allow temperatures to fall
into the upper 30s to around 40.

Thursday...

Mainly dry weather will be found across southern parts of central
Indiana as the surface high and westerly winds continue to remain
dominate. Forecast soundings here show mainly a dry column. However
across the northern parts of the forecast area a quick moving short
wave moving through the cyclonic upper flow is expected to pass. Mid
levels suggest saturation during the afternoon, but lower levels
look to remain rather dry with dew points in the 30s. Thus at a
minimum increasing clouds will be found on Thursday as this wave
passes. Some sprinkles or very light rain showers resulting in 0.01
or 0.02 inches of rain could be possible. Will include some low
pops, but confidence for measurable rain is low. Warm air advection
will be starting, allowing warmer highs in the lower 60s.

Thursday night through Friday...

Cool and dry NW flow will remain in place aloft. Little in the way
of forcing dynamics appear to pass, while surface high pressure
remains over the southeastern states. This will allow for a warmer,
southerly flow of air to return to Indiana but the column will
remain dry. Look for partly cloudy skies then, with warmer highs on
Friday reaching the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday Night...

A weak short wave is suggested to pass on Friday night. This will be
our next best chance for organized rainfall. A weak surface trough
will accompany the the upper wave. Forecast soundings show the
arrival of deep saturation on Friday night with pwats reaching over
1 inch. A moderate 40 knt LLJ will also be present. Thus will
include at least high likely pops as these features pass on Friday
night.

Saturday through Tuesday...

Continued passing weather systems will bring chances for rain to
central Indiana nearly every other day during this period. Showers
may be lingering for a little while on Saturday morning as a cold
front and low pressure system that is expected to pass on Friday
night could be lingering through the morning hours on Saturday.
Otherwise, Saturday should evolve into a dry and warmer day. Ridging
and high pressure are shown to quickly set up east of Indiana on
Saturday, allowing a southerly flow of warm air to arrive.

Rain chances will return on late Saturday night and into Sunday as
yet another cold front and surface low pressure system will pass
across Indiana. Accompanying this low will be an upper short wave
providing ample dynamics. Forecast soundings suggest deep saturation
on late Saturday and into Sunday. Thus will use high pops and cooler
temperatures as these features pass.

Sunday Night into Monday will transition into dry weather as ridging
builds across the Rockies, resulting in lee side NW flow spilling
across the plains into the Ohio Valley. This will result in
subsidence and high pressure building across Indiana.

By Tuesday, the surface high drifts east of Indiana, allowing
warmer, southwesterly return flow to develop once again. A warm
front is suggested to pass through the afternoon. THis feature may
be capable of producing some light showers as it arrives as broad
lift is indicated.

Overall, temperatures will remain at or below seasonal normals with
the exception of Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Impacts:

- Brief MVFR possible from transient BR through 13Z

Discussion:

Following heavy rainfall last evening, patchy and small reductions
in VIS from transient fog that will disperse near central Indiana
terminals by 13Z.  VFR is otherwise expected to prevail over central
Indiana terminals into Thursday morning.  Considerable mid cloud and
lighter northwest winds will be the rule today...before winds become
light tonight.

Northwesterly winds increasing to 5-8KT by 18Z this afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None
&&

AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...Puma

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
328 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-070730-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
328 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected today or tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

More thunderstorms are possible on Friday night and again on Sunday.
It is too soon to determine if these storms will be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

JP