River Flood Warning 11, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
638 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect from 7PM this evening through 10AM EST
  Wednesday for the southern two-thirds of the forecast area

- Widespread rain accumulations between 1-3 inches expected through
  Wednesday morning with locally higher amounts

- Much warmer late week into the weekend with near record warmth
  Friday

- Daily rain chances with additional threats for rain and
  thunderstorms this weekend into next week will increase the risk
  for flooding across central Indiana

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Weak instability from parcels elevated above a frontal inversion
paired with around 35 knots of effective shear will support
clusters of organized convection early this evening. One cell near
Newport/Rockville now has displayed a robust reflectivity core on
radar but appears insufficient for >1 inch hail at this time,
with only a very low probability of severe. Small hail, lightning,
and heavy rain can be expected with the strongest thunderstorms.

The heavy rain/flooding threat will increase through the evening as
convective coverage increases within warm advection regime and
minimally unstable environment, where a moisture provide favorable
for high precipitation efficiency resides.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Current KIND radar imagery depicts rain ongoing over portions of
central Indiana. This is associated with a frontal boundary which
has stalled across the area. Aloft, a shortwave trough centered near
the Rockies continues to advect positive vorticity towards Indiana
promoting large scale ascent. Favorable forcing from these features
combined with Pacific and Gulf moisture advection within
southwesterly mean atmospheric flow will continue to support
widespread rainfall.

Heavy rainfall is possible at times given the anomalous moisture in
place and the potential for training storms along the west to east
oriented boundary. Some high-resolution guidance also suggest warm
air advection could lead to weak elevated instability. This would
support the potential for embedded convective elements and more
efficient rainfall rates. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are expected with the potential for locally higher amounts.
Most guidance including the HREF focuses the heaviest amounts from
near Sullivan to Parke county and points east-southeastward.

A Flood Watch is in effect from 7PM this evening through 10AM EST
Wednesday over roughly the southern two-thirds of the forecast area.
Precipitation falling over a 12 hour duration and the ongoing
drought in some areas may limit the flash flood threat. However,
expected QPF amounts with high-res guidance suggesting the potential
for locally higher amounts could still lead to flooding, especially
along smaller creeks and streams.

Most high-resolution guidance suggest that convection shunts the
stalled boundary further south Wednesday morning. If this occurs, a
lull in precipitation or more limited coverage of rain would be
expected during the day. There is some slight uncertainty in areas,
but rain chances were lowered significantly from mid-morning to the
early afternoon hours on Wednesday given trends. Additional
refinements may be needed in future updates.

Rain chances quickly increase again late Wednesday ahead of another
system lifting into the region. The aforementioned surface boundary
will lift back north as a warm front aiding in low-level theta-e
advection. Expect widespread showers and isolated to scattered
storms late in the day. Diurnal temperatures swings will be limited
by rain and clouds. Look for lows tonight to range from near 40F to
50F while highs Wednesday range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Wednesday Night through Saturday...

Periods of rain from time to time will be expected from Wednesday
Night through Sunday. Models show a continued, persistent warm front
lingering across Central Indiana through Friday. An upper level
weather disturbance looks arrive and pass on Wednesday Night into
Thursday, providing forcing. A warm and moist air mass will be in
place, with forecast soundings showing saturation within the lower
levels and pwats over 1 inch. Thus confidence remains high for rain
showers. Moist ground and continued periodic rainfall may lead to
possible lowland flooding.

On Friday, morning rain still looks possible as the warm front
surges northward toward the Great Lakes. This will place Central
Indiana within the warm sector for what should be a very warm early
March day within the warm sector. A dry and warm Friday afternoon is
possible. More Rain chances will return on Saturday as a cold front
approaches and crosses the state. Precise timing, morning or
afternoon, of the cold front is a bit uncertain at this moment.
Thunder will be possible within the warm sector ahead of the cold
front.

Sunday and Monday...

Dry weather is still expected during this time with mild
temperatures. Surface high pressure will be moving across the region
with zonal flow in place aloft allowing no arctic air intrusions.

Tuesday...

Troughing aloft in the western CONUS will lead to SW flow aloft.
This will lead to another mild day on Tuesday amid southerly surface
flow within the warm sector. At the moment, some instability and
sufficient moist appears available that an afternoon thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 637 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Impacts:

- IFR or worse conditions in low ceilings and BR/fog

- Brief improvements to MVFR conditions possible at times

Discussion:

Classic warm advection pattern will persist through much of the TAF
period bringing low stratus and BR/fog. Dense fog is unlikely in
this pattern. Brief periods of improvement or worsening may occur
but the in general this is a steady-state pattern with little
variability. Waves of rain can be expected. There is just enough
instability for a few weaker thunderstorms with lightning as the
main hazard.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for INZ044>049-051>057-
060>065-067>072.

&&

MESOSCALE...BRB
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...BRB

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