Tornado Warning 138, NWS Lincoln, IL

812 
WWUS53 KILX 100336
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1036 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

ILC123-143-175-100415-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0138.000000T0000Z-260810T0415Z/
Marshall-Stark-Peoria-
1036 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN STARK AND NORTHEASTERN PEORIA COUNTIES...

At 1035 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Wyoming, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lacon, Sparland, Camp Grove, Hopewell, Duncan, Lawn Ridge, and
Marshall County Airport.

This also includes Marshall State Fish and Wildlife Area.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4096 8980 4103 8983 4115 8943 4095 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 255DEG 22KT 4101 8976 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

25

308 
WWUS53 KILX 100349
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1049 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

ILC123-143-175-100358-
/O.CAN.KILX.TO.W.0138.000000T0000Z-260810T0415Z/
Marshall-Stark-Peoria-
1049 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WESTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN STARK AND
NORTHEASTERN PEORIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central and north central Illinois.

Remember, a Tornado Warning still remains in effect for Central 
Peoria County until 1145 PM CDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4096 8980 4103 8983 4115 8943 4095 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 254DEG 23KT 4103 8965 

$$

25

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
830 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues through Wednesday, with peak heat
  index values between 100 and 109 degrees daily. A Heat
  Advisory remains in effect through Monday along and south of a
  Canton to Casey line. Additional headlines may eventually be
  needed Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible
  overnight and again Monday night into Tuesday. The greatest
  risks with these storms will be damaging winds and localized
  flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A warm front was laid out west-to east near the I-80 corridor
this evening. Scattered storms have recently developed in the
vicinity of the front, as a 40 kt southwest LLJ has developed
to our southwest, converging into northwest IL currently. CAMs
show pretty good agreement of increasing storm coverage and
intensity over the next several hours, mainly north of the I-74
corridor. Environment is highly unstable with MLCAPEs near 4000
J/kg, and deep layer shear is as high as 40 kt just to our
north. This suggests supercells and multicell clusters, capable
of frequent/vivid cloud to ground lightning, high rain rates up
to 2"/hr, and isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts with
the strongest updrafts. Storms should propagate to the east-
southeast with time, eventually bringing the storm risk as far
southeast as the Champaign/Vermilion counties later tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Synoptic Overview...
The synoptic pattern remains dominated by a robust 595 dam
upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners, maintaining
persistent northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes. Central
Illinois resides on the periphery of this feature, effectively
placing the region within the Ring of Fire near a quasi-
stationary baroclinic zone. This configuration ensures hot,
humid conditions and a challenging convective forecast, as
models continue to struggle with the precise timing and
evolution of successive nocturnal mesoscale convective systems
(MCS).

Short-Term Convective Potential...
Regional radar imagery highlights an MCV from earlier upstream
convection traversing southern Wisconsin, which is driving
convective redevelopment over the Chicago metro area. Locally,
capping (MLCIN > 100 J/kg) continues to suppress activity,
though an outflow boundary currently moving across the
Mississippi River north of Quincy remains a focal point for
potential cap erosion this afternoon. If deep convection manages
to initiate, effective shear profiles of 25-30 kt (per the
latest RAP) are marginally sufficient for storm organization.
Consequently, thunderstorm probabilities remain low (around 20%)
north of I-72 through the early evening, but if storms do
develop they could be strong.

Overnight, the low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to intensify,
focusing moisture convergence along the instability gradient to
our north. While the consensus of CAMs tracks the primary MCS
activity across northern Illinois into Indiana, the orientation
of Corfidi vectors from the northeast warrants caution. Should
upstream development align favorably, there remains potential
for propagation into central Illinois. Primary concerns with any
nocturnal development would be locally heavy rain due to
backbuilding and a damaging wind threat; trends will be
monitored closely through the overnight hours.

Heat and Instability: Monday - Wednesday...
A persistent 850mb thermal ridge will dominate the Great Plains
and Upper Midwest regions through mid-week, pushing
temperatures into the 90s across western and southern counties
of central Illinois. Sustained dew points in the mid-70s will
result in peak heat indices ranging from 100 to 109 degrees
daily. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas south of a
Canton to Casey line for Monday. While additional headlines may
be required Tuesday and Wednesday, uncertainty regarding the
extent of convective debris and outflow boundaries currently
precludes additional product issuance.

The convective pattern remains highly repetitive for the first
half of the week. Monday evening features an environment with
very strong instability, with GFS-progged MLCAPE values
approaching 4000 J/kg, supported by 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. While the primary axis of moisture convergence will shift
slightly south, Corfidi vectors again favor a southward
propagation path into central Illinois. Similar conditions will
be in place Tuesday and Tuesday night. Despite the persistent
PoPs, it is important to emphasize that numerous dry hours will
persist between convective waves.

Extended Outlook: Thursday - Weekend...
By the latter half of the week, western CONUS ridging will
amplify, fostering deeper downstream troughing over the Great
Lakes. This shift will place Central Illinois on the cooler side
of the baroclinic zone, leading to a transition toward near- to
slightly-below-normal temperatures. While the airmass will
moderate, the LLJ will continue to provide sufficient forcing to
maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
particularly during the evening and overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Timing and placement of convective development tonight on the
nose of the low-level jet is still uncertain, but most likely
near to northeast of the I-74 corridor. Maintained PROB30 TSRA
mention at KPIA-KBMI-KCMI tonight. Beyond this, there is a low
chance of scattered TSRA Monday morning, but confidence is too
low to include a mention at this time. Away from storms, VFR
will dominate. South winds around 10 kt tonight will veer SW by
late morning, with occasional gusts around 20 kt through
afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for ILZ036-040-041-
047>052-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Deubelbeiss
UPDATE...25
DISCUSSION...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
242 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-101945-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
242 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible this evening through
the overnight hours. The higher threat will be focused near and
north of the Interstate 74 corridor. Damaging wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall are the primary hazards. A brief tornado cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heat indices of 100 to 109 degrees are expected Monday and Tuesday
afternoons, which could result in heat-related illness with extended
exposure.

Periods of thunderstorms are forecast this week. There is potential
for severe weather and heavy rain across parts of central Illinois
through midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight.

Expected storm motion is toward the east around 30 to 40 mph.

Deubelbeiss