Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Lincoln, IL

017 
WWUS53 KILX 192129
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

ILC035-139-173-192138-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260219T2145Z/
Moultrie-Shelby-Cumberland-
329 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOULTRIE...EAST
CENTRAL SHELBY AND NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The original severe thunderstorm has moved out of the county. 
Another severe thunderstorm is moving across Shelby County, and a 
severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect for portions of Shelby 
and Moultrie Counties.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for east central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3939 8846 3946 8847 3953 8841 3942 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 236DEG 29KT 3944 8842 

$$

ILC029-192145-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260219T2145Z/
Coles-
329 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLES COUNTY...

At 328 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mattoon, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Mattoon around 335 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Paradise.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 182 and 187.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for east central
Illinois.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3939 8846 3946 8847 3953 8841 3942 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 236DEG 29KT 3944 8842 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Erwin

428 
WWUS53 KILX 192140
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
340 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

ILC029-192149-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-260219T2145Z/
Coles-
340 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLES COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 345 PM CST...

The storm which prompted the warning has exited the warned area. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for east central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3939 8846 3946 8847 3953 8841 3942 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 239DEG 27KT 3948 8834 

$$

Erwin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The primary focus for severe weather this afternoon will be
  along and south of a Shelbyville to Paris line where there is a
  greater than 10% chance for tornadoes.

- Strong westerly winds will develop tonight into Friday morning.
  Peak gusts will generally range from 35-45mph: however, there is
  a 30-40% chance of gusts exceeding 45mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

20z/2pm surface analysis shows a 995mb low east of Kansas
City...with a pronounced dryline arcing southeastward into the
Ozarks. Convection that fired ahead of the system in the Saint
Louis metro earlier today has weakened as it has tracked E/NE
along/south of I-70 over the past few hours. Still need to keep an
eye on these cells for the balance of the afternoon as the
atmosphere across southeast Illinois is moderately unstable
(1000-1500J/kg SBCAPEs) and highly sheared (0-6km bulk shear of
60-80kt): however, weak capping/warm air aloft has so far kept the
storms at bay. Once mid-level cooling associated with an
approaching short-wave trough arrives, scattered thunderstorms
will develop along the advancing dryline between 23z/5pm and
03z/9pm. A tornado risk will still be present along/south of I-70
where deep-layer shear is strongest: however, the overall severe
weather threat further north across the remainder of central
Illinois will be less due to weaker shear and diurnal instability
decreasing after sunset. Think the main risk for locations north
of I-70 will be scattered damaging wind gusts through mid-evening
before the cells lift E/NE out of the area. After a period of dry
weather later this evening, a few rain and snow showers may wrap
back into the Illinois River Valley overnight. The general trend
has been to shift this precip area a bit further N/NW than
previously anticipated. As a result, am only carrying 30-50 PoPs
along/north of a Macomb to Minonk line overnight. With the precip
expected to be quite light and surface temps staying above
freezing until after daybreak, little to no snow accumulation is
expected.

Once the dryline passes, winds will veer to the W/SW and increase
greatly later this evening toward midnight. Significant pressure
rises in the wake of the passing low suggest gusts may become
higher than models are advertising. 19z HRRR indicates a swath of
35-45mph gusts advancing across much of central Illinois along/west
of I-57 late this evening through Friday morning. In addition, the
12z HREF shows a 30-40% chance of gusts exceeding 45mph.  Given
the clear signal for strong winds, have issued a Wind Advisory for
gusts of 35-45mph with a few gusts reaching 50mph. The strongest
winds will lift into northern Illinois and the Great Lakes by
mid-morning Friday:however, gusts of over 30mph will remain common
through the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from
the lower 30s in the Illinois River Valley to the upper 30s near
the Indiana border. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 30s
north of the Peoria area to the upper 40s south of I-70.

Barnes

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

After a dry and seasonably cool day on Saturday with highs in the
upper 30s and lower 40s, a re-enforcing surge of cold air will
drop readings back below normal by early next week. Models
continue to advertise a western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough
pattern that will ensure the return of more winter-like temps for
a couple of days before the pattern begins to break down and
things warm back up by the middle and end of next week. Highs on
Sunday and Monday will only reach the lower to middle 30s, but
will bounce back well into the 50s by next Wednesday and Thursday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

IFR/MVFR ceilings linger at the central Illinois terminals late
this morning: however, with the warm frontal boundary lifting
N/NW of the area and all guidance suggesting the low clouds will
scatter over the next couple of hours...have opted to raise all
sites to VFR after 19z/20z. While a band of showers will track
along and south of I-72 this afternoon, the primary strong to
severe convection will focus further south along/south of I-70.
Most CAMs suggest scattered cells forming along an advancing
cold/occluded front late this afternoon into early evening for all
locations north of I-70. As such, have included a TEMPO group for
thunder at all TAF sites between 23z and 03z. Winds will
initially be S/SE at around 10kt this afternoon, then will veer to
W/SW and increase markedly after frontal passage this evening.
Latest guidance indicates gusts of 25-35kt tonight through Friday
morning. As cold advection commences tonight, MVFR ceilings will
pivot back into the area from west to east between 07z and 11z.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>056-061.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1135 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-201200-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Cass-Scott-Morgan-
1135 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
early evening, with damaging winds and isolated large hail the
primary concerns. The best chances of this will be in west central
Illinois.

Strong west winds gusting up to 45 mph are expected to develop toward
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong west winds gusting up to 45 mph will continue into Friday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed early to mid afternoon near the I-72
corridor, and from 5 to 9 pm near the I-74 corridor.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 45 mph.

ILZ038-042-043-048-051>053-201200-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Menard-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-
1135 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, exiting by mid
evening. A few storms may contain damaging winds and perhaps some
hail, though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

Strong west winds gusting up to 45 mph will develop late this
evening, continuing overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong west winds gusting up to 45 mph will continue into Friday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between noon and 7 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 45 mph.

ILZ044>046-054-055-057-201200-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Moultrie-Douglas-Edgar-
1135 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early
evening. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the main
concern, although isolated large hail is possible as well.

Strong west winds gusting up to 45 mph will develop after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong west winds gusting up to 45 mph will continue into Friday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 3 pm and 9 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 45 mph.

ILZ056-061>063-066>068-071>073-201200-
Coles-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-
Richland-Lawrence-
1135 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Tornadoes, some of which may be strong, and damaging winds
are the primary concerns, though some large hail is also possible.

Strong west winds gusting up to 45 mph will develop after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong west winds gusting up to 40 mph will continue into early
Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed, with the most likely time
frame between noon and 8 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 45 mph.

Geelhart