Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
113 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A risk for damaging wind gusts will persist along and north of
  the I-72 corridor through 2am.

- While thunderstorms will weaken below severe limits after 2am,
  training cells will lead to a Marginal Risk (5-15% chance) of
  mainly urban flash flooding along and south of I-72 through
  daybreak.

- A strong cold front will bring a return to winter-like
  conditions early next week. There is an 80-100% chance of low
  temperatures dropping into the teens by Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

0530z/1230am analysis shows a line of thunderstorms extending
from just east of Peoria southwestward to Quincy. Instability has
diurnally waned:however, a 50-60kt 850mb jet streak is contributing
to MLCAPEs of 1000-1500J/kg. While low-level wind shear has decreased
into the 30-35kt range due to boundary layer winds veering to
southwesterly, these instability/shear parameters are sufficient
to support the continued risk for scattered damaging wind gusts,
marginally severe hail, and perhaps a tornado. Based on CAM
guidance, it appears the risk for severe weather will continue to
diminish and should be minimal after 2am. As a result, the Tornado
Watch for locations along/north of I-72 will likely be allowed to
expire at 2am.

Once the severe weather risk fades, we will need to keep an eye on
radar trends to monitor for the possibility of training cells
primarily south of the I-72 corridor through daybreak. While sub-
surface soil moisture remains low, excessive rainfall rates may
lead to a few instances of flash flooding, particularly where
urban drainage systems may be clogged with debris. As such, WPC
indicates a Marginal Risk (5-15% chance) for flash flooding.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger through midday as a
cold front pushes eastward into the Ohio River Valley. Showers
will then rapidly come to an end from west to east during the
afternoon as temperatures fall into the lower to middle 40s
everywhere north of the I-70 corridor. As high pressure builds
into the region, skies will clear, winds will decrease, and low
temperatures will drop into the upper 20s tonight. After a sunny
and cool start, clouds will be on the increase and southwesterly
winds will gust 20-25mph by Thursday afternoon. This will boost
highs into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Barnes

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low pressure will track through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest
Thursday night...perhaps triggering a few showers as far south as
the I-74 corridor. Once the low passes, a return to mild and dry
conditions with highs in the middle to upper 50s is anticipated
for Friday. After another dry day on Saturday, a stronger and more
southerly tracking low will move into the Midwest on Sunday.
While there are still some timing/track differences among the
models, the 00z Mar 11 GFS shows MUCAPEs of 200-300J/kg and 0-6km
bulk shear increasing to greater than 60kt by Sunday afternoon.
As a result, the Colorado State machine learning algorithm
indicates a 5-15% chance for severe weather. Current forecast
includes showers and a slight chance for thunder late Saturday
night into Sunday, but the thunder chances may need to be
increased if trends continue.

Once the Sunday system passes, deep-layer northwesterly flow will
bring a chunk of very cold Canadian air southward into the
Midwest early next week. GFS 850mb temps drop into the -10 to -15C
range by Monday, supporting high temperatures in the lower to
middle 30s. The coldest readings will arrive by Monday night as
high pressure leads to excellent radiational cooling conditions.
The 00z NBM suggests a high probability (80-100% chance) of low
temperatures dipping into the teens by early Tuesday morning.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage overnight with
the strongest storms expected during this time. Isolated severe
storms will be possible during this time as well along with some
heavy rain potential. This activity should transition to more
showers with isolated thunderstorms after about 12z Wednesday
morning with the showers becoming more isolated through Wednesday
afternoon. Outside of any thunderstorms, MVFR and IFR conditions
will settle into the area overnight into Wednesday morning as a
cold front drop south. Gusts during the day will likely be 25 to
35 mph.

WFO FSD

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
213 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-041-111915-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-
213 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is an Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) for severe weather along
and north of a Havana to Paxton line this afternoon through tonight.
Two rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible.

Round one will develop along and north of a warm front between 3pm
and 7pm. Any cells that form at this time will rapidly become
severe...resulting in a risk for strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and damaging wind gusts.

Round two will materialize from late evening into the overnight
hours. Storms that form later in the event will mainly pose a risk
for damaging wind gusts: however, a tornado cannot be ruled out. In
addition, pockets of flash flooding will be possible where excessive
rainfall rates overwhelm urban draining systems.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed 5pm to Midnight.

Expected storm motion is toward the the northeast around 30-40 mph.

ILZ040-042>053-111915-
Schuyler-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-
213 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather along
and north of the I-72 corridor this afternoon through tonight. Two
rounds of potentially severe thunderstorms are possible.

Round one will develop along and north of a warm front between 3pm
and 7pm. Any cells that form at this time will rapidly become
severe...resulting in a risk for strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and damaging wind gusts.

Round two will materialize from late evening into the overnight
hours. Storms that form later in the event will mainly pose a risk
for damaging wind gusts: however, an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out. In addition, pockets of flash flooding will be possible
where excessive rainfall rates overwhelm urban draining systems.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed 5pm to Midnight.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 30-40 mph.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111915-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
213 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather south of
the I-72 corridor late this evening and overnight. One or more lines
of thunderstorms will move across the area...with the primary risks
being damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. In addition,
pockets of flash flooding will be possible where excessive rainfall
rates overwhelm urban drainage systems.

Minor flooding in ongoing on the Little Wabash River near Clay City
and the Embarras River near Lawrenceville.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Minor flooding will continue on the Little Wabash River near Clay
City and the Embarras River near Lawrenceville through the remainder
of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 30-40 mph.

Copple

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1221 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Havana                  40.30N 90.06W
03/10/2026                   Mason              IL   Emergency Mngr

            A few trees, power lines, and traffic lights
            were blown down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1223 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Havana              40.30N 90.03W
03/10/2026                   Mason              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Power lines were blown down along US-136
            east of Havana.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1250 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     Hail             Tremont                 40.53N 89.49W
03/11/2026  M1.25 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Broadcast Media

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     Hail             1 ENE Tremont           40.53N 89.48W
03/11/2026  E1.00 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Green Valley        40.41N 89.66W
03/11/2026                   Tazewell           IL   Emergency Mngr

            Power poles were snapped near the
            intersection of Toboggan Avenue and Chapel
            Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
126 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     South Pekin             40.49N 89.66W
03/11/2026                   Tazewell           IL   Emergency Mngr

            A street lamp pole was blown down.

&&