Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
624 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flooding is a concern along and north of the I-74
  corridor overnight. HREF probabilities of more than 2 inches
  of rain are 30-50% in this area, although some local totals
  over 3 inches are possible.

- Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will continue into the
  weekend each afternoon, in areas near and south of I-70. The
  heat is expected to spread northward across the forecast area
  by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

MCS that tracked out of Iowa earlier today intensified again as
it crossed the Peoria metro, producing winds around 70 mph and
extensive damage in Bloomington. Cluster of storms has reached
the Champaign area this hour, with the trailing outflow
extending west through Springfield. Storms are riding along a
tight gradient of CAPE and should exit the forecast area in the
next few hours.

Next MCS is expected to begin developing this evening closer to
the warm front from Iowa to northern Indiana, then sink
southward overnight. Precipitable water values over 2 inches
persist through the night, and some of the northern parts of our
forecast area have seen a few inches of rain since yesterday.
HREF PMM precip estimates suggest 1.5-2 inches of rain in 6
hours between midnight and sunrise, and no changes are being
made to the Flood Watch at this time. South half of the forecast
area has a good chance of remaining dry until closer to
daybreak.

Heat forecasts remain a concern as well. Latest guidance
suggests 100-105 heat index could reach as far north as a
Rushville-Paris line tomorrow, but the extent of the lingering
rain/cloud shield introduces some uncertainty as to whether or
not to expand the Heat Advisory. Current inclination is to leave
it in place and allow the next shift to expand it, once the
timing and track of the MCS becomes more certain. An expansion
for the entire forecast area appears more likely for Saturday.

A quick look at the extended forecast -- upper pattern becomes
more zonal for a time as high pressure sprawls more west-east
across the southern U.S. Getting into early next week, riding
amplifies west of the Rockies as a strong upper trough swings
across the Canadian Prairies and the north central U.S. Impacts
from that in our area would be more likely toward the middle of
next week. A couple days of cooler temperatures are likely
early next week, before warming begins again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Storms from earlier this afternoon have cleared the terminals
leaving VFR conditions and east/southeast winds across central
Illinois. IFR ceilings are in place just north of PIA/BMI this
evening and expected to expand south towards the I-74 corridor
overnight while MVFR ceilings develop across the remainder of
central IL by late tonight. Meanwhile, additional showers and
storms will form tonight along a stationary front over the
region and continue into Friday morning. Confidence in
placement and timing remains low at this time but are generally
favored between I-72 and I-80.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for ILZ027>031-037-038-045-
046.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart
DISCUSSION...Geelhart
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
304 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-142015-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
304 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heat indices of 95 to 110 are expected this afternoon south of I-72.

Additional thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Friday
morning with damaging winds and large hail possible with any
stronger storms. Heavy rain could locally exceed 3 inches and produce
localized flooding. Areas for strong to severe storms and flooding
will be most likely near and north of I-74

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hot and humid conditions will expand northward through late week.
Peak afternoon heat indices will range from 100 to 110 Friday and
Saturday, and Sunday from I-72 southward.

Daily chances for thunderstorms exist through the weekend, although
these will be mainly north of I-72 Friday afternoon through Sunday
morning. Some of these storms could be severe and produce heavy rain
through at least Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight.

Expected storm motion is toward the east around 30 mph.

37

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
837 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Willard Airport         40.03N 88.28W
08/13/2026  M52 MPH          Champaign          IL   ASOS

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from Willard Airport. ASOS station KCMI
            Willard Arpt.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
845 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Rain             1 SSW Germantown Hills  40.76N 89.48W
08/13/2026  M1.43 Inch       Woodford           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AX391 GERMANTOWN HILLS.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
857 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Flood            1 SE Champaign          40.10N 88.24W
08/13/2026                   Champaign          IL   Public

            One vehicle stranded from flooding on Neil
            St south of Kirby Ave. Police blocked off
            Kirby Ave near Neil St.

&&

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1111 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

ILZ029-140445-
Peoria-
1111 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PEORIA COUNTY THROUGH
1145 PM CDT...

At 1111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dunlap, or 7 miles northwest of Peoria, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Peoria, Chillicothe, Bellevue, Princeville, Dunlap, Edelstein,
Kickapoo, Norwood, Jubilee College State Park, and Alta.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 474 between mile markers 0 and 2.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 75 and 87.

This also includes Jubilee College State Park and Rock Island Trail
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4082 8988 4097 8979 4096 8945 4069 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 299DEG 16KT 4082 8972

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Deubelbeiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1132 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

ILZ029-031-037-140515-
Tazewell-Peoria-Woodford-
1132 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD...NORTH
CENTRAL TAZEWELL AND EAST CENTRAL PEORIA COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM
CDT...

At 1132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peoria, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Peoria, East Peoria, Morton, Chillicothe, Washington, Metamora,
Germantown Hills, Rome, Spring Bay, Peoria Heights, Cazenovia, Bay
View Gardens, Mossville, and Low Point.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 88 and 90.

This also includes Woodford State Fish and Wildlife Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 8966 4091 8950 4091 8924 4064 8946
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 299DEG 16KT 4080 8962

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Deubelbeiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

ILZ029-140530-
Peoria-
1156 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTY
THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1155 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brimfield, or 15 miles northwest of Peoria, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elmwood, Princeville, Hanna City, Brimfield, Laura, Elmore, Kickapoo,
Jubilee College State Park, and Monica.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 69 and 81.

This also includes Jubilee College State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4078 8998 4097 8998 4096 8966 4068 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 299DEG 17KT 4085 8988

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Deubelbeiss