Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Lincoln, IL

116 
WWUS53 KILX 092026
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
326 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

ILC021-173-092045-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0321.000000T0000Z-260709T2045Z/
Christian-Shelby-
326 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN AND SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 326 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pana, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Pana, Owaneco, Rosamond, and Oconee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3935 8914 3935 8945 3955 8915 3925 8896
      3922 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 251DEG 18KT 3934 8916 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Geelhart

205 
WWUS53 KILX 092041
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
341 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

ILC021-173-092051-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0321.000000T0000Z-260709T2045Z/
Christian-Shelby-
341 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty 
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Lincoln.

&&

LAT...LON 3935 8914 3935 8945 3955 8915 3925 8896
      3922 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 270DEG 18KT 3936 8908 

$$

Geelhart

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
116 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will be highest late this afternoon into early
  evening, then again Friday night. A few of the storms will be
  on the strong side, but the main threat of that will be south
  of I-72.

- Locally heavy rain will result in the potential for areas of
  flooding, with the focus shifting more into areas south of
  I-72 by Friday night.

- Temperatures remain typical for July. While a warming trend
  takes place next week, humidity levels will make it feel less
  oppressive than last week's heat wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Short Term (through Saturday):

Prominent MCV from the decaying convection across Missouri is
about to cross the Mississippi River south of Pittsfield.
Despite a fair amount of cirrus blowoff, MLCAPE's of 1000-1500
J/kg have allowed scattered storms to develop over the last hour
across eastern Illinois. Recent Day1 convective outlook shifted
the risk areas a little further south and are mainly
concentrated south of I-72. Greatest downdraft CAPE is expected
preceding the anticipated convection across central Illinois,
though there remains some uncertainty with the extent of
strong/severe storms. In general, much of the shower/storm
activity is expected through sunset. While development of
another MCS across Missouri is expected this evening, most of
the high-res guidance keeps this to our southwest.

A front across Iowa and southern Wisconsin is expected to only
slowly drift southward the next couple days. Additional
convective complexes are expected to ride along the boundary
Friday night, and highest rain chances remain over the south
half of the forecast area during this time. East-west upper
troughing will set up during the weekend, keeping the frontal
movement on the slow side. However, by late Saturday night, it
should finally be near the Ohio River, ending the rain threat.

Long Term (Sunday through Thursday):

Little change in the forecast for next week. A sprawling upper
high will dominate a large portion of the CONUS to start the
week, before the ridging amplifies near the Plains by midweek.
This pattern will result in seasonably warm temperatures near 90
degrees in our area, though with the Gulf cut off, humidity
levels should not get as rough as last week's heat wave. Still,
heat index levels of 95-100 degrees are likely Tuesday-Thursday.

As the upper ridge establishes itself, we'll be on the periphery
of a northwest flow, which can be favorable for MCS activity.
Right now, that activity looks to be more across the Great Lakes
region, so a dry forecast will be maintained in the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this afternoon, as a
small scale disturbance moves out of Missouri. Main focus for
convection will be in the KSPI-KCMI corridor, closest to the
track of this feature. Will include a 3-4 hour TEMPO period in
this area for the highest potential, but maintain PROB30 groups
at KPIA/KBMI where development is less certain.

Going later into the night, focus shifts toward MVFR or
potential IFR conditions, as a front settles into the area and
winds become nearly calm. HREF probabilities of ceilings below
1000 feet peak around 11-13z at 40-60%. Will need to watch for
this potential with upcoming TAF issuances, but for now,
will go with MVFR ceilings mainly on the lower end.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart
DISCUSSION...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
219 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-101930-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
219 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through tonight. Some of these
storms could be strong to severe south of the Interstate 72 corridor.
Damaging wind gusts, hail to an inch in diameter, and heavy rain
will be the primary hazards. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Minor to moderate flooding continues along portions of the Illinois
River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday. A few
storms south of a Springfield to Charleston line could become severe
Friday afternoon and evening. The severe risk appears low Saturday.

Minor to moderate flooding will continue for several days along
portions of the Illinois River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the east around 30 mph.

NMA