Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
316 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10pm CDT for locations
  along and south of a Macomb to Chenoa line. All severe hazards
  are possible...with the greatest probability for strong
  tornadoes focusing south of a Springfield to Paris line.

- Quiet weather will prevail Thursday through Saturday...with
  the next chance for thunderstorms arriving by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

19z/2pm mesoanalysis shows an outflow boundary left behind by
the morning convection along a Quincy...to Litchfield...to
Salem line. This is considerably further south than previously
thought: therefore the most significant risk for widespread
severe weather later this afternoon and evening has shifted
south as well. As such, the new Tornado Watch coordinated with
SPC does not include the far northern KILX CWA from the Peoria
area northward.

MLCAPEs are currently under 1000J/kg: however, as the boundary
mixes slowly northward this afternoon, the RAP suggests MLCAPEs
will increase into the 1500-2000J/kg along/southeast of a Quincy
to Champaign line over the next couple of hours. Impressive wind
fields aloft are contributing to very strong 0-6km bulk shear
of 60-80kt...while 0-1km shear values remain in the 30-40kt
range. Given marginal instability and extreme shear, am
expecting supercell thunderstorms to rapidly develop along/ahead
of a slowly advancing cold front across the Illinois River
Valley imminently. All severe hazards will be in play...including
damaging wind gusts in excess of 70mph, hail larger than
golf balls, and tornadoes. The Significant Tornado Parameter
(STP) is currently maximized closer to the outflow boundary
from central/northern Missouri across south-central Illinois,
but is progged to lift northward later this afternoon/evening.
At this time, it appears the highest probability of potentially
strong tornadoes will focus along/south of a Springfield to
Paris line.

Thunderstorms are currently developing in a band from
Galesburg/Rushville eastward to Pontiac/Champaign. CAMs have
generally sped up the development process, as well as the
gradual S/SE movement of the band. As a result, think the
primary severe risk will be focused along the I-72 corridor
between 4pm and 6pm, then will sink toward I-70 by 7pm to 9pm.
The primary line of convection will exit the far SE KILX CWA
around midnight: however, a few showers may linger further north
throughout the evening into the first part of the overnight.

A short-wave trough will bring a period of mid-level cloudiness
to central Illinois Thursday morning, with forecast soundings
suggesting the potential for a few light rain showers mostly
along/south of a Rushville to Robinson line where slight chance
PoPs (20%) are warranted. Once this wave departs, a return to
cool and mostly dry weather will be on tap for Friday and
Saturday. The next significant chance for precipitation will
hold off until late Saturday night into Sunday as a stronger
short-wave trough traverses the Plains and approaches from the
west. Given better deep-layer moisture and strong forcing, think
showers and thunderstorms will become widespread. The severe
weather risk remains uncertain at this time, with several
machine learning algorithms such as Colorado State and NSSL
keeping the greatest probabilities further south. A few NCAR
members do however suggest 15-30% probs northward into central
Illinois, so will need to keep an eye on mesoscale details as
the time nears.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Convection is ongoing across central Illinois early this
afternoon: however, 1740z/1240pm radar imagery shows the back
edge of the precip along a KGBG to KSPI line. Based on
radar/satellite trends, it appears the terminals will see a
couple hour break as the afternoon progresses before a final
line of thunderstorms forms from the Iowa/Missouri border
eastward into the area after 19z/20z. Following the latest
HRRR/RAP solution closely, have highlighted thunder with visbys
down to 1 mile at KPIA between 19z and 21z...then further south
to the I-72 sites between 22z and 00z. Once the convective line
settles further south, scattered showers will remain possible
until early evening. After that, am expecting skies to become
mostly clear through much of the evening before a layer of
mid-level clouds AOA 15,000ft spreads across the area by
Thursday morning. Winds are highly variable at the moment due to
ongoing storms, but will become southeasterly this
afternoon...then westerly this evening as a cold front passes.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-
036>038.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Barnes
DISCUSSION...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
328 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

ILZ036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-181100-
Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-
Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-
Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-
Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
328 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A broken line of thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards will
settle southward through central Illinois late this afternoon and
evening. The strongest cells within the line will have the potential
to produce tornadoes, damaging wind gusts in excess of 70mph, and hail
large than golf balls. The highest probability for strong tornadoes
will focus along and south of a Springfield to Paris line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will develop across the area late Saturday night into
Sunday. At this time it appears the severe weather risk will remain
low.

River flooding is ongoing for portions of central Illinois. Please
refer to the latest flood statements for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through 10pm this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the east at 60-70mph.

ILZ027>031-181100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-
328 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts
and large hail will track across north-central Illinois late this
afternoon. The storms will drop south of the Peoria area by early
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will develop across the area late Saturday night into
Sunday. At this time it appears the severe weather risk will remain
low.

River flooding is ongoing for portions of central Illinois. Please
refer to the latest flood statements for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 5pm this afternoon.

Expected storm motion is toward the east at 60-70mph.

Barnes

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
445 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Rain             1 SE West Peoria        40.69N 89.62W
06/17/2026  M3.39 Inch       Peoria             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AW321 PEORIA.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
448 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Rain             1.8 W Washington        40.70N 89.44W
06/17/2026  M3.97 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Broadcast Media

            Rainfall so far today from Personal Weather
            Station.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
453 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Flash Flood      5 SSE Bloomington       40.41N 88.96W
06/17/2026                   McLean             IL   Emergency Mngr

            Photo of flooded roadway at 1600E and 900N
            south of Bloomington and south of I-74.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
458 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Petersburg              40.01N 89.85W
06/17/2026                   Menard             IL   Law Enforcement

            Photos of wind damage at Hand of Fate
            Brewery Building in Petersburg.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
502 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Downs              40.41N 88.89W
06/17/2026                   McLean             IL   Emergency Mngr

            Photos of flooding at 19052 country road 850
            North located northwest of Downs.

&&