Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
543 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The primary focus for severe weather this afternoon will be
  along and south of a Shelbyville to Paris line where there is a
  greater than 10% chance for tornadoes.

- Strong westerly winds will develop tonight into Friday morning.
  Peak gusts will generally range from 35-45mph: however, there is
  a 30-40% chance of gusts exceeding 45mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

20z/2pm surface analysis shows a 995mb low east of Kansas
City...with a pronounced dryline arcing southeastward into the
Ozarks. Convection that fired ahead of the system in the Saint
Louis metro earlier today has weakened as it has tracked E/NE
along/south of I-70 over the past few hours. Still need to keep an
eye on these cells for the balance of the afternoon as the
atmosphere across southeast Illinois is moderately unstable
(1000-1500J/kg SBCAPEs) and highly sheared (0-6km bulk shear of
60-80kt): however, weak capping/warm air aloft has so far kept the
storms at bay. Once mid-level cooling associated with an
approaching short-wave trough arrives, scattered thunderstorms
will develop along the advancing dryline between 23z/5pm and
03z/9pm. A tornado risk will still be present along/south of I-70
where deep-layer shear is strongest: however, the overall severe
weather threat further north across the remainder of central
Illinois will be less due to weaker shear and diurnal instability
decreasing after sunset. Think the main risk for locations north
of I-70 will be scattered damaging wind gusts through mid-evening
before the cells lift E/NE out of the area. After a period of dry
weather later this evening, a few rain and snow showers may wrap
back into the Illinois River Valley overnight. The general trend
has been to shift this precip area a bit further N/NW than
previously anticipated. As a result, am only carrying 30-50 PoPs
along/north of a Macomb to Minonk line overnight. With the precip
expected to be quite light and surface temps staying above
freezing until after daybreak, little to no snow accumulation is
expected.

Once the dryline passes, winds will veer to the W/SW and increase
greatly later this evening toward midnight. Significant pressure
rises in the wake of the passing low suggest gusts may become
higher than models are advertising. 19z HRRR indicates a swath of
35-45mph gusts advancing across much of central Illinois along/west
of I-57 late this evening through Friday morning. In addition, the
12z HREF shows a 30-40% chance of gusts exceeding 45mph.  Given
the clear signal for strong winds, have issued a Wind Advisory for
gusts of 35-45mph with a few gusts reaching 50mph. The strongest
winds will lift into northern Illinois and the Great Lakes by
mid-morning Friday:however, gusts of over 30mph will remain common
through the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from
the lower 30s in the Illinois River Valley to the upper 30s near
the Indiana border. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 30s
north of the Peoria area to the upper 40s south of I-70.

Barnes

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

After a dry and seasonably cool day on Saturday with highs in the
upper 30s and lower 40s, a re-enforcing surge of cold air will
drop readings back below normal by early next week. Models
continue to advertise a western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough
pattern that will ensure the return of more winter-like temps for
a couple of days before the pattern begins to break down and
things warm back up by the middle and end of next week. Highs on
Sunday and Monday will only reach the lower to middle 30s, but
will bounce back well into the 50s by next Wednesday and Thursday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A broken line of convection has formed along an advancing dryline
extending from near KUIN southeastward to KSLO. These cells will
lift northeastward at 40-45mph and will impact the central
Illinois terminals over the next few hours. Have continued the
TEMPO group for thunder between 00z and 03z at all sites
accordingly. Once the front passes, SE winds at 10-15kt will veer
to W/SW and increase markedly late this evening through Friday
morning. Based on the latest HRRR/RAP, gusts of 35-40kt will
arrive at KPIA/KSPI by 06z...then further northeast at KCMI by
07z/08z. Winds will then veer to W/NW and only gradually decrease
during the day Friday...with gusts dropping below 30kt by
afternoon. After a period of partly to mostly clear conditions
after FROPA later this evening, low clouds will spill back into
the area from the west overnight. HRRR forecast soundings suggest
MVFR returning between 07z and 09z. After that, ceilings will
persist through much of Friday morning before slowly scattering
from south to north across the area toward midday.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>056-061.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
416 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-201200-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-
416 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms will develop along an advancing frontal boundary
this evening. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few
cells may produce damaging wind gusts.

Once the front passes, strong west-southwest winds gusting 35-45mph
will develop from late this evening through Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed from 5pm to 9pm this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 45mph.

ILZ044>046-201200-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-
416 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms will develop along an advancing frontal boundary
this evening. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few
cells may produce damaging wind gusts.

Once the front passes, strong west-southwest winds gusting 35-45mph
will develop from late this evening through Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 9pm this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 45mph.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201200-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
416 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to impact locations
along and south of a Shelbyville to Paris line through 6pm. The most
intense storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail
up to the size of ping pongs, and a few tornadoes.

Additional scattered cells will form along an advancing front this
evening. While widespread severe weather is not expected this
evening, a few cells may produce damaging wind gusts.

Once the front passes, strong west-southwest winds gusting 30-40mph
will develop from late this evening through Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through 9pm this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 45mph.

Barnes

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
700 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1.5 SW Watson           39.01N 88.59W
02/19/2026                   Effingham          IL   Broadcast Media

            Seven vehicle accident due to thunderstorm
            winds. 1 injury.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
702 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Funnel Cloud     2 W Newton              38.99N 88.20W
02/19/2026                   Jasper             IL   Storm Chaser

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
703 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1.5 SW Watson           39.01N 88.59W
02/19/2026                   Effingham          IL   Broadcast Media

            *** 1 INJ ***
            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            1.5 SW Watson. Seven vehicle accident due to
            thunderstorm winds. 1 injury.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
714 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     Hail             Ray                     40.21N 90.48W
02/19/2026  M1.00 Inch       Schuyler           IL   Emergency Mngr

&&

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