Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
610 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- SW winds gusting 30-40 mph this afternoon east of the IL river
  will cause blowing dust in open/rural areas that have recently
  been tilled. Continued the Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 pm
  east of the IL river and north of I-70. Blowing dust can
  result in localized, sharply reduced visibilities for
  motorists to be use caution if traveling this afternoon in
  central IL.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms east of I-55
  this afternoon, and become more widespread tonight. There is
  slight to marginal risk for large hail and damaging wind
  gusts, mainly from 7 pm to 1 am tonight. The higher risk of
  severe storms this evening (slight risk with level 2 of 5) is
  from Shelbyville to Paris north.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Updated the forecast to adjust chances of showers and
thunderstorms the rest of today. Continued Blowing Dust Advisory
from 11 am to 6 pm southeast of the IL river and north of
Effingham, Cumberland and Clark counties. SW winds 10-20 mph
and gusts of 20-30 mph to increase this afternoon with gusts
30-40 mph possible especially over east central IL per latest
HRRR 10M wind gust forecast. This could lead to blowing dust in
recently tilled fields between the IL river and I-70, especially
in areas that stayed dry so far since last night.

Radar mosaic shows a band of showers and thunderstorms from
Springfield to Decatur to Paris south to near I-70 and tracking
eastward quickly at 50 mph. There is a subtle short wave
tracking quickly eastward with this convection along with 30-40
kt sw low level jet into central IL. This convection should
weaken next few hours as LLJ weakens and short wave moves into
Indiana. However more convection expected to develop late this
afternoon and early evening mainly se of I-55, and also during
this evening over nw CWA as cold front moves into nw IL during
this evening. SPC Day1 outlook continues marginal risk of severe
storms for large hail and damaging winds over much of IL for
mainly late afternoon and evening hours, with areas from Canton
to Decatur to Taylorville sw upgraded to a slight risk of severe
storms. Breezy sw winds and some sunshine to warm temperatures
to 75-80F degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

We have recently received a few reports of blowing dust since
130 pm over southeast parts of Logan and into Macon counties
with sw winds gusting as high as 30-40 mph. Will continue the
Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 pm east of the IL river and north
of I-70.

Radar mosaic at 230 pm shows some light southeast in southeast
IL from I-70 south while a band of thunderstorms was sw of
Vandalia to south side of St Louis metro and tracking eastward
across southern IL. A fair amount of sunshine nw of a Rantoul to
Taylorville line at mid afternoon helping warm temperatures up
into the mid to upper 70s. Mid to upper 70s also in far
southeast IL from Robinson to Olney to Fairfield se while cooler
65-72 degrees over cloudier areas of eastern IL. The 19Z/2 pm
surface map shows a cold front over southeast parts of WI/Iowa
into far nw MO and central KS. IL was in the warm sector so far.
We have some capping over central and southern CWA at mid
afternoon that has keep thunderstorms below severe levels so
far despite MUCAPES of 1-2k j/kg and MLCapes 500-1k j/kg and
effective bulk shear values of 35-50 kts.

Cold front to push se into nw IL during this evening and will
see sw LLJ 35-40 kts into central IL helping to develop
scattered convection during this evening and a few cells could
appear late afternoon/early evening in eastern IL and getting
into Knox and Stark and nw Marshall counties by sunset and
shifting se into central IL during this evening. SPC Day1
outlook has slight risk over much of central IL from
Shelbyville to Paris northwest and marginal risk southeast.
SPC has 2% risk of tornadoes in slight risk area, while 5-15%
risk of damaging winds over CWA (highest ne of BMI).
Also have 5-15% risk of large hail over area, with the 15% risk
in slight risk area. Also have level 1 for 2 inch or larger hail
over west central IL into northern MO for late afternoon and
evening. Cold front to press se toward IL river valley early
overnight and into southeast IL late Tue morning to midday Tue.
Chance of severe storms shift south of CWA on Tue though we have
marginal risk of excessive rainfall in southeast IL where 1-2
inches possible.

Showers to diminish from nw to se during Tue night wile just
slight chances of showers on Wed mainly south of I-74. Much
cooler Tue with the clouds and showers, with highs 55-60F over
central IL and 60-65 in southeast IL from I-70 se. Lows in the
lower 40s central IL Tue night and mid 40s southeast IL. Cool
highs Wed in the mid to upper 50s with even cooler lows in the
upper 30s in central IL and lower 40s in southeast IL. A large
mid/upper level trof over the Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio river
valley Thu could keep slight chances of light rain showers
around though we currently have pops less than 20% on Thu. Highs
Thu 60-65F, mildest over west central IL. A northern stream
short wave trof dives se into the area on Friday afternoon
bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Fri
afternoon and Fri evening. Breezy sw winds on Friday warms
temps up to 65-70F.

Saturday currently looks dry and comfortable with highs in the
low to mid 70s. But another another disturbance moving in
overnight Sat night and Sunday (Mothers Day) to return chances
of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Several rounds of showers and storms are expected the next 24 hours
with the main waves being this evening and again tomorrow morning
into early afternoon. Breezy southwest winds will lessen shortly
after 00Z, with speeds remaining around 10-15 kts through the
overnight hours. A cold front will shift winds to the north-northwest
late tonight into Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings develop behind
the departing rain Tuesday, with at least a low chance for
these to impact KDEC and KCMI. However, higher chances (60-80%)
remain just south and east of the airfields.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ031-
037-038-041>048-050>057-061.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...07
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...NMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
256 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-051100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
256 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph will combine with loose top soil to
create areas of blowing dust this afternoon. This is most likely
north of I-72 and Danville, where morning rainfall was minimal. The
blowing dust may reduce visibilities to less than 1/2 mile at times.
Conditions should improve around 7 pm when wind speeds are reduced.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late afternoon into tonight, as
a cold front sweeps through the area. Some of these may be severe,
with hail being the primary concern. Most of the hail should be the
size of quarters, but west central Illinois may see some as large as
golf balls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday over east central
Illinois, though severe weather is not expected.

Minor flooding will continue along the Illinois River from Havana to
Beardstown into early next week, though river levels will slowly
fall during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 7 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the east at 45 mph.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-051100-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
256 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon, and continue
into tonight. A few of the storms may be strong or locally severe,
with damaging gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch the primary
severe weather threat.

Lingering flooding on the lower Embarras River and Wabash River
should subside today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are still possible Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Severe weather is not expected with any of these storms at this
time.

Minor flooding on the Little Wabash River near Clay City will
continue for several more days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the east at 45 mph.

Geelhart

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