Flood Watch 9, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today, there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for east of
  I-55 (timing: daytime today), east of I-55, and a marginal
  risk that encompasses Knox County off to the west (timing:
  overnight into tomorrow morning).

- Wednesday, there is an Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) along and
  near I-72/Danville and an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) over
  the rest of the forecast area. Review your severe weather
  safety plan, and stay weather aware over the coming days.

- Breezy wind gusts are likely on Wednesday, with southwesterly
  gusts of 30-45 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

We are re-entering a busy, active pattern. Showers and thunderstorms
have returned for today and tomorrow and some will pack a decent
punch within them. Before we unpack the details of the next two
days, let's talk general weather forecast. Temperatures this week
will be pleasant, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday will be the warmest, with areas
south of I-70 having highs nearing 90. Southerly winds on Wednesday
are going to be quite breezy, gusts up to 30-45 mph, ahead of
the system, and will pull up very moist dewpoints northward.

Today a weak cold front will lob south through the forecast area,
before lifting back north overnight as a warm front. SPC has a
marginal risk for severe weather for eastern IL (risk: daytime
today), east of I-55, and a marginal risk that encompasses Knox
County off to the west (risk: overnight into tomorrow morning). The
hazards of concern are gusty (up to 60 mph) winds and near
severe/severe hail. The storms are expected to have the potential to
be strong to marginally severe today. Current timing has the front
entering west-central IL by 12z this morning and exiting the
southeast by 22z-00z this evening. Uncertainty exists on how
widespread of coverage there will be today. There is a chance that
most people will likely see nothing from today's frontal passage.
The RRFS indicates a fairly dry passage with some scattered
convection along the front. The HRRR and NAMNest show a more solid
line of showers and storms along the front, but different degrees of
coverage.

Wednesday, an outbreak of severe weather is being forecast. SPC has
increased areas along and near I-72/Danville to a moderate risk
(level 4 of 5) with an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) over (basically)
the rest of the forecast area. The cold front from today will lift
back up north as a warm front, lifting better moisture (dewpoints in
the 70s and PWATS ~2 inches) into central and southeastern IL. There
is a morning round (timing: ~12z-19z) of convection to the north of
the warm front, that if a supercell can latch onto the warm front,
tornadoes are possible. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are
the concern for the morning round. There is some uncertainty on how
far north the warm front will get. As of now, guidance shows it
lifting somewhere between I-74 and I-80. If the warm front doesn't
get as far north as I-80, then the threat (moderate risk) could be
pushed further south for the cold frontal passage in the afternoon
(timing: ~20z-06z). The environment will be very volatile. CAPE
values 3000 J/kg or greater, effective bulk shear of 55-65 knots,
and SRH 0-1 km ~200-300 m2/s2. Supercells are expected at the start
of the afternoon round, but quickly evolving into a fast moving QLCS
wind event with embedded tornadoes. All hazards are in play here,
with some potentially being significant (EF2+ intensity, 75+ mph
wind gusts, 2+ inch hail). These storms are going to be booking it,
with storm motions nearly due east at 50-60 knots.

WPC has maintained an excessive rainfall high-end slight risk for
Wednesday. PWATs look to be around 1.8-2.1 inches. The storms would
likely have torrential rain within them, but will be moving fairly
fast, which would hopefully help curb the flooding threat. With many
rivers/streams already at or near flood and saturated soils,
flooding could become a concern through Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday, the next best chance of rain and storms comes
Sunday but we need to survive through Wednesday before details
can be clarified.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A cold front was located just west of KPIA at 17z, and will push
east across the central IL terminals this afternoon. Winds will
veer SW to W behind the front, gusting 20-25 kt until rapidly
diminishing by early evening. There is a 20-30% chance that TSRA
will redevelop along the front this afternoon - the only
terminal that appears to risk seeing this is KCMI. Another round
of storms is expected to develop after 12z Wed, affecting mainly
near and north of I-74, so included a TEMPO or PROB30 mention at
the terminals. Gusty southeast winds will develop after sunrise.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
527 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-171100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
527 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move through the area this morning and
this afternoon. There is a marginal risk that some of the storms this
afternoon in east central Illinois could become severe, with hail,
wind gusts up to 60 mph, and an isolated tornado all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Severe thunderstorms will move through the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night. There is a moderate risk that these storms will be
severe. The main threat is strong tornadoes, with EF2 to EF3
strength; damaging winds of 60-75 mph, with some gusts over 75 mph;
and large hail over 2 inches. Flash flooding is also possible due to
storms producing up to 2 inches of rainfall in a short amount of
time.

River flooding is ongoing for portions of central IL. Please refer
to the latest flood statements for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation might be needed this afternoon across east central
Illinois. Storms will be moving to the east at 35-40 mph.

Spotter activation will be likely Wednesday and Wednesday night
across the entire area. These storms will be moving east to southeast
at 50 to 60 mph.

Auten