Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Lincoln, IL

220 
WGUS73 KILX 011920
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

ILC183-012145-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260801T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vermilion IL-
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR VERMILION COUNTY...

At 205 PM CDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain in Danville. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Danville, Hoopeston, Georgetown, Westville, Tilton, Catlin, 
  Oakwood, Rossville, Potomac, Fairmount, Rankin, Fithian, Vermilion 
  Regional Airport, Bismarck, Belgium, Henning, Jamaica, Muncie, 
  Collison and Alvin.

This includes the following State Parks...
Harry Babe Woodyard State Natural Area, Kickapoo State Recreation 
Area and Middle Fork State Fish and Wildlife Area.

This includes  Interstate 74 between  mile markers 199 and 220.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Collison Branch, Middle Branch, Freedwell Branch, Baum Branch, 
  Jordan Creek, North Fork Vermilion River, Lick Creek, Windfall 
  Creek, Little Vermilion River, Swank Creek, Butler Branch, Middle 
  Fork Vermilion River, Bluegrass Creek, Fayette Drain, Feather 
  Creek, Fountain Creek, Gimlet Branch, Knights Branch, Grape Creek, 
  Sugar Creek, Whisky Creek, Buck Creek, Glenburn Creek, 
  Whippoorwill Branch, Salt Fork, Stony Creek, Bean Creek, Hawbuck 
  Creek, Vermilion River and Painter Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 8793 4049 8753 3996 8753 3998 8793

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

25

360 
WGUS73 KILX 012141
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
441 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

ILC183-012151-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260801T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vermilion IL-
441 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
VERMILION COUNTY...

Heavy rain has ended, but periods of light to moderate rain will 
continue through the evening. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed any lingering road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT Sunday for a 
portion of east central Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 8793 4049 8753 3996 8753 3998 8793

$$

NMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- WPC has a slight risk excessive rainfall outlook today for
  areas east of I-55 and north of I-70. Flash flooding could
  occur where grounds are already saturated or after multiple
  rounds of heavy rain over the same locations. Expect rainfall
  totals of 1.5 to 3.0 inches in these persistent bands, with
  significantly lower amounts elsewhere.

- Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be quite gusty from the
  tightening pressure gradient today. The HREF shows a 60-80%
  chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-55 during
  the afternoon and evening hours.

- Pleasant, dry, and warm weather follows for Monday and
  Tuesday, before rain chances return mid-to-late next week.
  Confidence in the late-week timing remains low, so please
  check back for later forecasts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Vertically stacked low pressure system was centered over west-
central IL this morning. Regional radar mosaic indicated
scattered showers pinwheeling around the low, with the highest
coverage over central and northern IL. Thermodynamic profiles
reflect weak mid-level lapse rates but substantial low- level
moisture. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near 1.6 inches will
nourish slow- moving convective showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms today. The highest convective intensity focuses
over east- central Illinois, where HRRR and HREF guidance
indicates hourly rainfall rates up to 2-3 inches.  Given these
rain rates, ponding on roadways and localized flash flooding in
low- lying or urban areas remain a risk through early this
evening. NAM/RAP surface vorticity and non- supercell tornado
(NST) parameter fields depict values between 1 and 2 coincident
with the core of the low pressure system, particularly near and
south of I-72 this afternoon. Surface based instability will
depend heavily on solar insolation; if cloud breaks develop this
afternoon, localized stretching will elevate the risk for
shear-zone funnel clouds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A low pressure system is slowly traveling through the central
part of the United States. Showers and thunderstorms will push
through central and southeastern IL again today, but won't be a
complete washout as there will be breaks in the rainfall. The
next round of showers and storms will develop later this morning
as the low pivots into the area. Coverage will be scattered.
Outside of any storms, skies will be cloudy. The greatest
rainfall amounts won't be widespread and will be fairly
localized. As of this morning, MRMS is estimating some localized
pockets of 1-2 inches across central and southeastern IL in the
last 24 hours. In contrast, some locations have seen less than
a quarter inch in that same time period. WPC has us in a slight
risk ERO for today for areas east of I-55 and north of I-70.
Flash flooding could occur where grounds are already saturated
or after multiple rounds of heavy rain over the same locations.

As the low pressure center moves directly overhead throughout the
day, the non-supercell tornado parameter will increase as localized
maximums of low-level SRH pivot over the central part of the state.
Someone may see a funnel cloud (or multiple) across central IL.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be quite gusty from the
tightening pressure gradient. The HREF shows a 60-80% chance of wind
gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-55 during the afternoon and
evening hours.

Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs in the 70s today.
Temperatures gradually increase solidly back into the 80s by midweek
next week. Lows will be in the 60s for the next week before warming
into the 70s by Friday night. Weather will dry out for Monday and
Tuesday, but additional rain chances muddle the new week starting
Wednesday. There are low (~20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms
off and on throughout next week from the timing uncertainty of when
an upper level shortwave will push into Illinois, dragging a cold
front along with it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Low pressure was centered near KDEC at 17z. North of the low,
widespread showers and IFR ceilings were prevalent at KPIA-KBMI.
South/east of the low, spotty showers and SCT-BKN IFR stratus
was prevalent at the other central IL terminals. As the low
tracks east this afternoon, IFR conditions are expected to
expand over the remainder of the terminals. SHRA will diminish
from the west late afternoon to early evening, coincident with a
tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the low. This
will result in N/NE gusts increasing to 20-25 kt. The gusts may
subside for a time later tonight, then return after sunrise. IFR
ceilings will be prevalent into Sunday morning, with higher
probabilities of MVFR ceilings west of I-55 by late morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ045-046-055-057.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
UPDATE...25
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
501 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-021100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
501 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight.
Rain could be heavy at times, with localized amounts over 2 inches
that could produce flooding of urban and poor drainage areas
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A cold front will bring a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night
into Thursday. There is potential that some of these storms could be
severe and produce heavy rainfall, but there remains high uncertainty
in the evolution of this weather feature.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

37

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1013 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Rain             Bradford                41.17N 89.66W
08/01/2026  M2.62 Inch       Stark              IL   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station IL-SK-10 Bradford 0.3 WSW.

0400 AM     Rain             1 ESE Toulon            41.09N 89.85W
08/01/2026  M2.54 Inch       Stark              IL   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station IL-SK-8 Toulon 0.5 ESE, IL.

0700 AM     Rain             3 N Galesburg           40.99N 90.38W
08/01/2026  M1.62 Inch       Knox               IL   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station IL-KX-24 Galesburg 2.5 N.

0700 AM     Rain             Elmwood                 40.78N 89.98W
08/01/2026  M1.45 Inch       Peoria             IL   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station IL-PR-20 Elmwood 0.4 W, IL.

0630 AM     Rain             2 WSW Elmore            40.95N 90.01W
08/01/2026  M1.42 Inch       Knox               IL   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station IL-KX-23 Williamsfield 1.7
            NNE.

0700 AM     Rain             3 NE East Galesburg     40.97N 90.27W
08/01/2026  M1.42 Inch       Knox               IL   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station IL-KX-26 Galesburg 5.7 E.

0700 AM     Rain             1 W Galesburg           40.95N 90.39W
08/01/2026  M1.35 Inch       Knox               IL   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station GBGI2 Galesburg.

0700 AM     Rain             1 SSW Morton            40.60N 89.47W
08/01/2026  M1.19 Inch       Tazewell           IL   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station MRTI2 Morton.

0700 AM     Rain             1 SSW Morton            40.60N 89.47W
08/01/2026  M1.17 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station IL-TZ-1 Morton 1.0 S.

0700 AM     Rain             1 NW Knoxville          40.91N 90.29W
08/01/2026  M1.12 Inch       Knox               IL   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station IL-KX-9 Knoxville 0.7 NW.

0700 AM     Rain             3 SE Henderson          40.99N 90.31W
08/01/2026  M1.10 Inch       Knox               IL   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station IL-KX-29 Wataga 3.0 SW.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
107 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

ILZ038-043>046-053>057-061>063-012300-
McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-
Including the cities of Bloomington, Normal, Clinton, Monticello,
Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston,
Mattoon, Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, and Marshall
107 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...FUNNEL CLOUDS SIGHTED OVER EAST CENTRAL IL...

At 100 PM CDT, media reported a funnel cloud north of Sullivan.

Atmospheric conditions exist that favor the possible formation
of weak circulations along a pre-existing boundary. Some of these
circulations are occurring underneath developing showers, where a
funnel cloud may develop.

Low hanging clouds can also appear to dip down at times, but they
will not show signs of any rapid rotation. An actual funnel cloud
will exhibit spinning in a counter-clockwise direction.

In rare instances these funnels may briefly touch down. Stay alert
and be prepared to move to a safe shelter if a funnel cloud
approaches the ground.

25