Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Lincoln, IL

629 
WGUS73 KILX 110735
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
235 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

ILC115-167-110745-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-260711T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Macon IL-Sangamon IL-
235 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL MACON AND CENTRAL 
SANGAMON COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 8943 3966 8952 3980 8978 3989 8947
      3991 8917 3986 8884 3976 8877 3973 8884
      3977 8908 3983 8916 3983 8928

$$

25

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
857 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of heavy rain are expected through tonight, with pockets
  of 2 to 3 inches not out of the question south of I-72.

- Locally strong to severe thunderstorms will be a threat this
  evening, and again Saturday from midday through the afternoon.

- Temperatures will warm back close to 90 degrees again next
  week, though oppressive humidity is not expected at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Overall, the current forecast still looks good with showers and
storms likely across the CWA along and north of I-72/Danville.
However, as the boundary continues to drop south, additional
showers and storms will develop through the evening. Also
monitoring the storms coming out of LSX CWA that will likely
move into southeast IL in the nxt few hours. Have made
adjustments to pops through tomorrow noon. Otherwise, rest of
the forecast looks ok. Update should be coming shortly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Latest surface map shows a stationary front draped roughly along
a Galesburg to Watseka line. Convection developed just north of
this boundary beginning around midday, and has produced a few
funnel clouds mainly north of our forecast area. Non-supercell
tornado parameters through the afternoon suggest additional
funnels may develop near/north of I-74 as storms develop, but
will likely fade away once the rain begins. Much of the forecast
area has reached the mid 80s as of 1 pm, though some lower
temperatures were noted south of I-70 where clouds have been
more extensive so far today.

Short Term (Through Sunday):

Main forecast concern remains with the period through Saturday,
involving timing of rain chances and any potential severe
weather or flooding.

Regional radar mosaics early this afternoon show an MCS
developing over northwest Missouri. While the core of this
should track to our southwest, residual boundaries and/or MCV's
will help trigger additional storms further northeast, which are
most favored to cross central Illinois during the evening. HREF
precipitable water values increase to near 2 inches near/south
of I-72 by this evening, supporting areas of heavy rain and
potential for flooding. Localized probability-matched means
(LPMM) suggest potential for over 2 inches of rain with the
heavier storms, and a level 2 risk of excessive rainfall covers
the entire forecast area. While some areas of southeast Illinois did
receive 2-3 inches of rain last evening, coverage of that
intensity was not really widespread, with antecedent conditions
being rather dry before that. Will hold off issuing a Flood
Watch at this time, but will need to watch this closely.

The boundary is expected to settle near I-72 by early Saturday
morning. Several of the CAM's suggest redevelopment just south
of this area by midday, though the NAM-Nest looks more like a
prominent MCV or small-scale low pressure area. Recent SPC Day2
outlook brought the level 1 risk up to about I-70, for locally
damaging winds during the afternoon.

As an upper trough settles into the Ohio Valley, several models
are suggesting it will pinch off an upper low. This would keep a
threat of rain continuing into Sunday over portions of the
forecast area, primarily near and south of I-70.

Long Term (Monday through Friday):

Expansive upper ridge is still progged to cover a large portion
of the CONUS early in the work week, centered over the northern
Plains. A bit of a rex block pattern sets up, with the upper low
lingering over the lower Mississippi Valley. With time, the
center of the high finally slides off to the southeast, though
ridging redevelops over the Rockies and western Plains by late
week. The overall pattern much of the week is not favorable for
any precipitation in our area, though some of the guidance
suggests the lower Mississippi Valley low may be close enough
for some showers in southeast Illinois. Better rain chances
return toward late week, as we start to get more into a
northwest flow and convection slides along the periphery of the
ridge.

Temperatures through the week remain quite warm, though the rex
block pattern will cut off any meaningful moisture advection,
keeping heat index readings in check.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will threaten PIA and BMI for the first
couple of hours of the TAFs, then showers will remain in the
vicinity of both sites through the rest of the evening. SPI,
DEC, CMI will also have scattered storms, but not starting until
after 2-3z. So have TEMPO with IFR vis and cigs near MVFR. When
this ends, will keep VCSH at these three sites through the
night. SPI, DEC, CMI will see MVFR cigs in the morning and then
improve to VFR in the afternoon. PIA and BMI will have VFR
conditions during the day tomorrow. Winds will be less than
10kts through the period outside of storms. Wind direction will
be variable tonight and then become northeast tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart
UPDATE...Auten
DISCUSSION...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

ILZ027>031-037-038-043-045-046-111100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Tazewell-McLean-De Witt-
Champaign-Vermilion-
245 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight.
These storms are not expected to be severe, but may contain locally
heavy downpours and gusty winds.

Minor to moderate flooding continues along portions of the Illinois
River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Minor to moderate flooding will continue for several days along
portions of the Illinois River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ036-040>042-044-047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-
Fulton-Schuyler-Mason-Logan-Piatt-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
245 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight
(30-60% chance). Some of these storms could be strong to severe.
Damaging wind gusts, hail up to an inch in diameter, and heavy rain
will be the primary hazards, although a tornado or two is possible
as
well, mainly south of a Jacksonville to Effingham line.

Minor to moderate flooding continues along portions of the Illinois
River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. A few
severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly south of I-70. Damaging
wind gusts and heavy rain will be the primary hazards.

Minor to moderate flooding will continue for several days along
portions of the Illinois River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed until around 10 pm today.

Expected storm motion is toward the east around 25 mph.

37

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
704 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Funnel Cloud     1 NE Saybrook           40.44N 88.51W
07/10/2026                   McLean             IL   Public

            Relayed by local media.

&&

Barnes

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
828 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Rain             1 W Hoopeston           40.47N 87.69W
07/10/2026  M2.05 Inch       Vermilion          IL   CO-OP Observer

&&

Barnes

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
948 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Tornado          2 NE Saybrook           40.45N 88.50W
07/10/2026                   McLean             IL   Public

            Brief touchdown in a corn field observed on
            video.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
954 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Funnel Cloud     Normal                  40.51N 88.98W
07/10/2026                   McLean             IL   Public

            Relayed by local media.

0235 PM     Funnel Cloud     Galesburg               40.95N 90.37W
07/10/2026                   Knox               IL   Public

0445 PM     Funnel Cloud     1 SSE Carlock           40.57N 89.12W
07/10/2026                   McLean             IL   Trained Spotter

0640 PM     Tornado          2 NE Saybrook           40.45N 88.50W
07/10/2026                   McLean             IL   Public

            Brief touchdown in a corn field observed on
            video.

0735 PM     Rain             1 W Hoopeston           40.47N 87.69W
07/10/2026  M2.05 Inch       Vermilion          IL   CO-OP Observer

&&