Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Lincoln, IL

672 
WGUS73 KILX 092007
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

ILC057-092017-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260609T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fulton IL-
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4042 9023 4052 9029 4059 9008 4049 8996

$$

NMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
118 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slow moving thunderstorms will bring a localized risk of 2-3
  inches of heavy rain to portions of central Illinois this
  afternoon through tonight. A few stronger storms could also
  produce isolated damaging wind gusts.

- Severe thunderstorms will impact the region Wednesday
  afternoon through Thursday night. Damaging straight-line winds
  are the primary hazard, but there remains a lesser threat of
  hail and an isolated tornado.

- High temperatures in the 90s will drive heat index values into
  the upper 90s and lower 100s Wednesday and Thursday. There is
  a 20 to 30 percent chance for heat index values in excess of
  100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Near-Term Outlook: Unsettled Pattern...
The forecast area is locked into an unsettled weather pattern,
featuring nearly daily opportunities for shower and thunderstorm
development through the upcoming weekend. This afternoon, a
remnant Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) is tracking eastward
near the I-72 corridor. Convection is currently intensifying
within the warm advection wing just north of the MCVs track. SPC
mesoanalysis reveals uncapped MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg
ahead of this feature; however, effective shear remains modest
at 20-25 kt. While weak shear may limit organized storm
longevity, localized gusty winds and slow-moving or training
convective elements present a threat for rainfall swaths of 2-3
inches. Farther south, near and south of I-70, a remnant outflow
boundary is initiating isolated activity within an axis of
higher instability, posing a limited severe threat primarily
driven by damaging wind potential.

As we move into tonight, southwest flow aloft will reestablish
across the region, supported by a strengthening low-level jet in
the mid-Missouri Valley. While the most robust instability
remains focused to our west, the gradient extends into portions
of central Illinois, driving a warm air advection-driven chance
for showers and storms that should shift northeast of the
forecast area by daybreak Wednesday.

Mid-Week Heat and Severe Potential...
Wednesday and Thursday will feature widespread temperatures in
the 90s, with heat indices climbing into the upper 90s to lower
100s. At this time, confidence in meeting Heat Advisory criteria
(max heat index near 105F) remains low, with LREF probabilities
for heat indices exceeding 100F generally holding in the 20-30
percent range for areas south of I-70 on Wednesday and south of
a Rushville to Terre Haute line on Thursday. The primary
limiting factors for higher heat readings will be clouds and
lingering convective debris.

By Wednesday afternoon, central Illinois will reside firmly
within the warm sector as a warm front surges northward into
Wisconsin, accompanied by breezy south to southwest winds. While
modest capping and displacement from the primary forcing should
maintain a largely dry first half of the day, we are monitoring
two waves of potential thunderstorm development originating in
Iowa and Missouri. These complexes may grow upscale and traverse
portions of central Illinois from mid-afternoon through late
evening. With MLCAPE values projected to exceed 2000 J/kg, deep-
layer shear will be sufficient to support severe storms. Linear
storm modes suggest wind will be the primary hazard, though the
environment remains supportive of hail and the potential for an
isolated tornado.

Late-Week Transition and Weekend Outlook...
A robust shortwave trough is expected to lift into the Upper
Midwest on Thursday, finally driving a cold front through
central Illinois by Thursday evening and overnight. Ahead of
this boundary, the GFS suggests a broad, unstable warm sector
with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg. Coupled with deep-layer
shear of 25-35 kt and 0-1km shear of 15-25 kt, the kinematic
environment is seasonably strong. While pre-frontal discrete
activity with all severe hazards is possible, the primary
concern remains straight-line winds as convective elements
congeal into a line along and ahead of the front.

Lingering showers and storms over southeast Illinois on Friday
morning will quickly exit, giving way to clearing skies as high
pressure builds into the region. This will provide a brief
return to more seasonal conditions, with highs in the lower to
mid-80s and dew points mixing down into the upper 50s.

For the weekend and into early next week, the pattern turns
more zonal aloft while a low-level baroclinic zone wobbles over
the region. This setup maintains additional chances for showers
and thunderstorms, though specifics regarding timing and
coverage remain uncertain at this forecast range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MVFR ceilings have developed late this morning and early
afternoon, but anticipate these clouds will lift to VFR around
the time the 18Z TAFs go into effect. Late this evening and
overnight, a warm front lifting across the region will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorms. Anticipated lower coverage
and low confidence in the exact location of storm initiation
precludes more than a prob30 mention at this time. SSW winds
will prevail through the period outside the influence of any
storms. Gusts to around 20 kt will develop by late morning
Wednesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...Deubelbeiss
DISCUSSION...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
512 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>053-101100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-
512 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The heat index this afternoon will range from the mid 90s near the
Indiana border, to just over 100 degrees across the Illinois River
Valley.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible today, with a better chance
this evening near the I-74 corridor. While the severe weather threat
is not high, a few of the storms may briefly be severe, with damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A couple more days of heat and humidity are on tap, with the heat
index on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons at or just above 100
degrees.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible northwest of the Illinois River
Wednesday afternoon, with better chances of storms Wednesday night
and especially Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms
are likely to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-101100-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
512 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and
southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The heat index this afternoon will range from 95 to 100 degrees.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening. A few of
these may be briefly severe, with damaging winds the main concern.
Areas of heavy rain may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A couple more days of heat and humidity are on tap, with the heat
index on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons at or just above 100
degrees.

Thunderstorms are expected Thursday evening as a cold front passes
through the area. Some of these are likely to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Geelhart

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
841 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     Rain             3 W Bismarck            40.26N 87.67W
06/09/2026  M1.48 Inch       Vermilion          IL   Trained Spotter

            24 hour rainfall report from SWOP observer.

&&

RAC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
845 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     Rain             2 NW Grandview          39.83N 89.64W
06/09/2026  E2.48 Inch       Sangamon           IL   Public

            Storm total rainfall.

&&

RAC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1108 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     Rain             1 WSW Arthur            39.71N 88.49W
06/09/2026  M2.46 Inch       Moultrie           IL   CO-OP Observer

            24 hour rainfall total.

&&

RAC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1109 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     Rain             1 E Casey               39.30N 87.97W
06/09/2026  M1.56 Inch       Clark              IL   CO-OP Observer

            24 hour rainfall report.

&&

RAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
112 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

ILZ036-037-091845-
Tazewell-Fulton-
112 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FULTON...WESTERN
TAZEWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cuba, or near Canton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Lewistown, Cuba, St. David, Dunfermline, Bryant, Norris,
Little America, and Fiatt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4066 8999 4063 8999 4063 8995 4045 8990
      4044 8991 4044 8993 4041 8997 4040 9023
      4052 9028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 238DEG 15KT 4050 9012

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NMA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
143 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     Flood            1 N Smithfield          40.48N 90.29W
06/09/2026                   Fulton             IL   Trained Spotter

            Water over Illinois 95 at Smithfield relayed
            by emergency management.

&&

RAC