Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
749 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added mention for precipitation chances mid-week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread precipitation is expected this evening into Monday,
with a chance of heavy rain and a few strong storms.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected this week. Next chance for
rain will arrive mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Low pressure system will travel through the Midwest region, leading
to increased cloud coverage today and chances for showers/storms
beginning late this evening.

Confidence remains high on an MCS blowing through our fa tonight.
CAMs have continued to trend slightly later with the onset of
convection in our western CWA, now arriving in our southeast IN
counties between 8-10 PM. The leading edge of this complex is where
the severe threat would be the highest. CAPE still remains a limiting
factor, with the highest values near 500 J/kg in the Tristate
region. The thermodynamics are certainly a limiting factor with the
severe threat, but keep in mind that the kinematics are very strong.
Effective shear values near 50-60 kts with help with MCS maintenance
and keep a risk for damaging straight-line winds reaching the
surface. However, these pockets of damaging winds are expected to be
isolated. Wind profiles do show a lot of veering in the lowest
levels, which would support the risk of a spin-up tornado. Similar to
the straight-line wind threat, the area most at risk of a brief
tornado would be near the Tristate, but cannot rule out a risk
farther east near/south of the Ohio River. The severe threat should
diminish once the leading edge of the MCS passes, which should be out
of our CWA by 3-4 AM.

Given the trend in CAMs to show a more progressive MCS tonight, the
risk for any flooding will be limited, even with the wet antecedent
soil conditions. If a segment of the MCS is more oriented W-E, this
would certainly increase the risk for flood or flash flood potential
given the longer period of convection.

The low pressure center will still be slowly tracking through our fa
on Monday. This will initiate some isolated showers during the
daytime, especially along the I-70 corridor near the center of the
low. The cold front will still be in our far southeastern counties
during the late morning and early afternoon hours, which could
initiate some convection in portions of north-central KY and
southern OH during this timeframe. Given the continued favorable wind
shear, cannot rule out a strong to severe storm tomorrow before the
front pushes east.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are generally
around 85 degrees. For the majority of this upcoming week, daytime
highs are expected to remain below this value. In fact, several
locations will only observe daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s
through mid-week, but a slight warming trend ensues through the end
of the work week, brining highs back into the 80s.

There is a chance for showers/storms Wednesday night into Thursday
as a shortwave ripples through the Midwest region. Still early to get
into all the details, but this will be the next best chance for pcpn
after the system moves through tonight into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms over southern Indiana will progress
eastward through the evening and overnight hours. Expect all
terminals to see a period of rain, with thunderstorms expected to
first impact KCVG/KLUK by 02Z-03Z, where there could also be strong
gusty winds. Confidence in thunderstorm impacts is lower further
north and east, especially toward the Columbus terminals later in
the evening.

After the main batch of thunderstorms moves through, expect ceilings
to lower to at least MVFR across all terminals late tonight, with
the potential for a period of IFR Monday morning. Even if IFR doesn't
occur, much of Monday looks to hold onto MVFR ceilings. Also expect
a wind shift from southwest to the west/northwest on Monday as low
pressure moves to the east.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Clark
AVIATION...BPP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
309 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-061>065-072>074-080-082-088-220715-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Highland-Pike-Scioto-
309 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Ohio, south central
Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening through Monday
morning. Some storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. A
few storms may also produce strong winds, mainly this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060-070-071-077>079-081-
220715-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Adams-
309 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, south
central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon
through Monday morning. Some storms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall, and flooding will be possible, especially for
locations that receive repeated rounds of thunderstorms. A few storms
may also be strong to severe, with a chance for damaging winds, and a
low chance of a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

HATZOS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
921 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

INZ073>075-080-220200-
Switzerland IN-Ripley IN-Ohio IN-Dearborn IN-
921 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO...RIPLEY...
WESTERN DEARBORN AND NORTHWESTERN SWITZERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1000
PM EDT...

At 921 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of
North Vernon, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Versailles, Milan, Osgood, Dillsboro, Moores Hill, Sunman, Holton,
Napoleon, Rexville, Cold Springs, Ballstown, Benham, Penntown,
Weisburg, New Marion, Farmers Retreat, Friendship, Bear Branch,
Versailles Lake, and Cross Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for southeastern
Indiana.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
southeastern Indiana.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 8544 3923 8536 3925 8528 3928 8505
      3891 8500 3890 8520 3892 8520 3891 8539
      3891 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 267DEG 31KT 3908 8551

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Campbell