Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
157 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to timing/pcpn chances tonight.

Trended pops upward for Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
evening.

2) Showers will linger into the day on Wednesday. As the cold front
moves to the southeast, a cooler airmass will settle into the region
for Thursday.

3) Periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday
with additional chances for precipitation through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A mid level short wave will move east-northeast across the Ohio
Valley region this afternoon into tonight as a cold front slowly
drops southeast into our region overnight. Moist southwest flow
ahead of this will allow for decent moisture advection up into our
area with PWs nudging up to around 1.8 inches or so heading into the
overnight hours.

Meanwhile, ample sunshine across our area this afternoon has helped
push MLCapes into the 1500 to 2000 J/KG range early this afternoon
for areas along and northwest of I-71 and these will likely continue
to increase a bit more over the next few hours. While the better
deep layer shear will generally remain off to our northwest, 0-6 km
shear values in the 20 to 25 knot range will develop into mainly our
northwest areas later this afternoon and into this evening.

While some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along
the instability gradient through mid afternoon, expect a more
consolidated axis of showers and thunderstorms to move into the area
from the west late this afternoon and into this evening, before
likely weakening as in moves into our eat/southeast and the forcing
and instability begins to wane later tonight. With the low level
shear fairly weak, expect the main threat to be damaging winds,
especially given DCAPES are already in the 1000-1200 J/KG range
across our northwest. With the potential for some stronger updrafts
in the better instability, some large hail may also be possible
early into the event later this afternoon/early evening. Expect the
best chance for severe to be along and northwest of the I-71
corridor, with the highest chance across our far west/northwest.

While the activity will be fairly progressive, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible given the elevated PWs. This could lead to
a lower end flooding threat, especially for areas across our Indiana
counties, where 1 to locally 2 inches of rain fell with Monday's
event.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
A secondary mid level short wave will ride northeast along the front
on Wednesday, helping to slow the southeast progression of the
front. Expect fairly widespread shower activity to linger into the
day on Wednesday and with the potential for some weak instability
across our southeast, some embedded thunderstorms will be possible
into the afternoon. Any lingering pcpn across our southeast should
taper off heading into Wednesday evening. A cooler airmass will be
in place across the region on Thursday with afternoon highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3)
Additional rounds of mid level energy will lift northeast through the
Ohio Valley Friday into the weekend. Models are suggesting a surface
wave may develop on Friday, leading to widespread showers and a
chance for thunderstorms. In continued moist southwest flow,
temperatures will moderate through the weekend. The potential will
exist for additional chances for showers and thunderstorms into the
weekend but this will be at least somewhat dependent on the timing
and placement of the mid level energy.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered cu has developed across the area this afternoon in an
increasingly unstable airmass. Isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible over the next several hours. A better chance for showers
and thunderstorms will then overspread the TAF sites late this
afternoon into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.

Showers and the chance for a few embedded thunderstorms will then
linger into the overnight hours as the cold front moves southeast
through the area. As the front moves through, southwest winds will
shift to the west and then northwest/north overnight into Wednesday
morning. Cigs will also lower into MVFR and then possibly IFR late
tonight into Wednesday morning. Additional shower chances and MVFR
cigs will then persist into Wednesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
330 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

KYZ098>100-OHZ073-074-081-082-088-200730-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
330 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern
Kentucky, central Ohio and south central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>072-077>080-200730-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-
Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
330 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central
Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight. Storms could
be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
517 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

OHZ034-192145-
Mercer OH-
517 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MERCER
COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 517 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Berne, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Celina, Rockford, Wabash, Mendon, Chattanooga, Neptune, and Tama.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
west central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 8446 4063 8445 4063 8446 4058 8446
      4051 8480 4073 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 247DEG 18KT 4067 8481

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
531 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

INZ073-192200-
Ripley IN-
531 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN RIPLEY
COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 531 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Vernon, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Versailles, Holton, Versailles Lake, Cross Plains, Rexville, Benham,
Olean, and New Marion.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
southeastern Indiana.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 8544 3912 8518 3897 8518 3891 8521
      3891 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 262DEG 23KT 3897 8546

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
547 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

INZ050-058-059-192215-
Fayette IN-Wayne IN-Union IN-
547 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WAYNE...
NORTHWESTERN UNION AND CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 547 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Connersville,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Connersville, Centerville, Cambridge City, Liberty,
Waterloo, Bunker Hill, Abington, Brownsville, Milton, Greens Fork,
East Germantown, Spring Grove, Mount Auburn, Mettel Field, Clifton,
Jacksonburg, Bentonville, and Philomath.

This includes I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 139 and 149.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
east central Indiana.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 8523 3979 8522 3980 8521 3991 8501
      3984 8487 3965 8487 3958 8522 3976 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 231DEG 22KT 3969 8514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Hatzos