Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
201 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued to tweak Monday/Tuesday temperatures slightly downward
from blended solution. Increased precip/thunderstorm chances for
Tuesday afternoon from blended solutions, with only slight change
from previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures persist through Tuesday. A cold front
approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing a chance for strong
to severe storms, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front
for mid to late week.

2) Some potential for strong to severe storms in far NW forecast area
this afternoon, with a greater chance of strong to severe storms
possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

A period of well above normal temperatures will persist through
Tuesday ahead of a cold front that passes through the area late
Tuesday night. For today and Tuesday, high temperatures range from
the mid-upper 80s to around 90. Temperatures on Wednesday are
mitigated in the wake of the front, along with any showers and
thunderstorms. Highs are expected to range from near 70 northwest to
around 80 southeast.

Temperatures cool behind the passage of the front Wednesday,
lingering into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to above normal
Friday and into the weekend. With the increase in temperatures and
moisture, some unsettled weather will return for the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

While strong to even isolated severe storms are possible this
afternoon/early evening in the far NW as the region remains
influenced by a departing ridge, bulk shear is a limiting factor,
with marginal instability/SB CAPE from 2500 J/Kg peaking over central
Indiana and diminishing to <2k J/kg between 20-22z. Enough
instability for thunderstorms after 20-22z, but weakening trend to
continue, with overall coverage diminishing through the evening.

A greater chance for strong to severe storms on Tuesday afternoon
into the evening, with main timing from 19-06z, though marginal
confidence in especially onset time with varying solutions from the
CAMs. Several of the CAMs ramping up SBCAPE values to 2500 J/Kg
ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Effective bulk shear
increases to between 20-25kts, but CAM solutions still show pretty
unidirectional flow. Strong to severe winds will be the main threat,
with DCAPEs ramping up to 900+ J/Kg. The more significant low level
shear remains north of the area into northern Ohio/lower Michigan.

With plenty of low level moisture and PWATs ramping up to 1.6-1.8",
HREF LPMM 24 hour QPF potential of 2 to 2.5" possible, so some
potential for isolated minor flooding, though greater heavy rain
threat remains west of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Line of storms
approaching from Indiana should diminish as they approach the region,
but kept a prob30 for KDAY from 23-03z. With increasing low level
flow KLUK not as likely to experience BR, but could be some brief
MVFR vsbys toward 10-12z.

SW winds 20 to 20 to 25kts will diminish a bit overnight, then ramp
up to near 25kts in the warm sector after ~14-16z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday and then again on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...JDR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
454 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

KYZ093>100-OHZ054>056-063>065-072>074-078>082-088-190900-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Madison-
Franklin-Licking-Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
454 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern
Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>092-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>053-060>062-070-071-077-190900-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-
Warren-Hamilton-
454 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, southwest Ohio
and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early
evening. A few of the stronger storms, mainly west of I-75 could
become severe with damaging winds and large hail being the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail
the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
644 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

INZ058-059-066-073-074-182330-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Ripley IN-Franklin IN-Dearborn IN-
644 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN AND RIPLEY
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...UNION COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...DEARBORN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Greensburg to 11 miles northeast of Scottsburg,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground
         lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or
         death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Connersville, Batesville, Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Aurora,
Brookville, Bright, Hidden Valley, Liberty, Versailles, Milan,
Osgood, Dillsboro, West College Corner, Oldenburg, Moores Hill,
Glenwood, Lake Santee, Guilford, and Salem.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 171.
 I-74 in Ohio near mile marker 0.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 8544 3927 8530 3965 8530 3973 8488
      3973 8482 3911 8482 3907 8489 3903 8488
      3894 8512 3896 8512 3893 8516 3893 8520
      3891 8521 3891 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 250DEG 46KT 3940 8550 3881 8564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
657 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

INZ075-080-KYZ089-182345-
Switzerland IN-Ohio IN-Carroll KY-
657 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO...SWITZERLAND
AND CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 656 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles northwest of Madison to 10 miles south of
Scottsburg, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground
         lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or
         death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Vevay, Pleasant, French, Fairview, Ghent, Prestonville,
Braytown, Center Square, Aberdeen, Langstaff, Locust, Avonburg,
Moorefield, Mount Sterling, Jacksonville, Pate, Interstate 71 at Mile
Marker 40, Interstate 71 at State Route 227, and Bear Branch.

This includes I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 48.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 8526 3869 8520 3891 8520 3894 8512
      3894 8510 3895 8508 3895 8506 3897 8505
      3898 8500 3899 8500 3899 8495 3901 8495
      3903 8488 3877 8500 3876 8502 3875 8501
      3860 8508 3858 8521 3863 8523 3874 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 248DEG 44KT 3888 8548 3854 8576

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Novak