Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
635 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An active weather pattern continues through mid week. While
specific impact details remain uncertain, multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely across the area, bringing an increased
potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Monday morning update (615 am): A remnant cold pool sits over
Indiana and northwest Ohio this morning as weakening thunderstorms
dissipate into an area of light to moderate rain. As it moves into
the area, the cold pool will begin to modify throughout the morning
and into the afternoon. As noted in the 08Z HRRR, there may be enough
forcing on the western edge to initiate new thunderstorms across
central Ohio. If this does not occur, thunderstorms may hold off
until later in the day as detailed in the next section.

Rest of the day Monday: While any thunderstorm coverage during the
morning would complicate factors going into this afternoon and
evening, the broader picture still supports an increased potential
for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Steady southwesterly
flow continues to feed moisture northeastward resulting in plentiful
CAPE across the boundary stretched from east to west from Iowa to
southern Michigan. New thunderstorms will develop along this
boundary, moving east and southeast throughout the late afternoon and
evening. The initial focus will be across northern parts of the area,
but multiple storm clusters may occur before the day is over.
Damaging wind threats will exist with these thunderstorms, and if an
organized line develops, spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out. If
back-building results in repetitive storms, flash flooding will
become a higher threat. Have held off on a flood watch for now, but
one may be needed for Tuesday if several rounds of thunderstorms
occur today.

The low level jet remains strong into Monday night. Depending on the
amount of lingering instability, there is plenty of support for
thunderstorms to develop into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday: Ongoing thunderstorms in the morning will complicate the
overall forecast for Tuesday, however, a potent shortwave and
strengthening southwesterly low-level supports an active day
regardless any early activity. Deep-layer shear is stronger Tuesday
when compared to Monday, with forecast soundings indicating 0-6 km
shear of 40-50 knots. If conditions align Tuesday afternoon and
evening, an organized MCS is likely through central Indiana into much
of the local area. Swaths of severe wind and spin-up tornadoes would
be likely as the line moves through the area. The exact placement and
degree of organization of the line is what remains the most
uncertain.

While an organized MCS would likely use much of the instability over
the area, much of the broader synoptic set up remains the same.
Continued southwesterly flow within a strong low level jet will
supply more moisture northeastward. Any lingering outflow boundaries
could be the focus of thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. By now, flash flooding may be the main concern with multiple
rounds of thunderstorms. Elevated flash flooding concerns would
likely require a northwest to southeast orientated outflow boundary.
This would support repetitive rounds of thunderstorms over the same
areas versus a progressive line that quickly moves through.

Wednesday: The boundary is likely far enough south that chances for
severe weather and flash flooding begin to decrease for the northern
portions of the area. Another shortwave moves southeastward across
the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, supporting additional
rounds of thunderstorms. Given that this event is still a couple days
away, uncertainty is larger on the exact placement of the impacts.
There is even the possibility that much of the damaging wind and
flash flooding threats would be outside the local area or at least
isolated to the far southern portions of the area.

Rest of Period: Thursday, the mid-level ridge builds in a bit
farther to the north, presenting another opportunity for
thunderstorms. On top of the rainfall from the previous days,
flooding of area rivers could now become an increasing problem. A
strong enough trough progresses into the Northeast US to allow for
a much needed dry period Friday into Saturday. There are signs that
additional moisture may move back to the Ohio Valley, but the
immediate concern is with the events over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The thunderstorm line near Indianapolis earlier this morning has
weakened, and even the remnant light rain associated with them is
also weakening. Have removed the threat for thunder this morning
through 16Z. Additional development is possible across CMH/LCK by
18Z, with chances increasing to the south later in the evening.
Multiple rounds are possible so additional thunderstorm mention may
be needed after 00Z once the situation becomes more clear this
afternoon.

Outside of any thunderstorm activity, winds are out of the southwest.
Gusts between 20 to 25 knots from around 16Z through 00Z.

Reintroduced chances at CVG starting after 14Z on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...McGinnis
AVIATION...McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
452 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-110900-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
452 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Warm and humid conditions will support the potential for several
rounds of thunderstorms through tonight. These storms will be
capable of damaging winds and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An active pattern is expected through Thursday. Thunderstorms will
be capable of damaging winds, and repetitive rounds could lead to
flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1137 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

OHZ054-055-064-065-101615-
Fairfield OH-Madison OH-Franklin OH-Pickaway OH-
1137 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN PICKAWAY AND EASTERN MADISON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

At 1137 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Upper
Arlington, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground
         lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or
         death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Dublin, Reynoldsburg, Grove City, Upper Arlington, Gahanna,
Hilliard, Pickerington, Worthington, Bexley, Canal Winchester,
Groveport, West Jefferson, Ashville, South Bloomfield, Ohio State
University, Lake Darby, Easton, Whitehall, and Grandview Heights.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 84 and 113.
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 87 and 117.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 8284 3960 8323 4004 8331 4012 8305
      3998 8278 3994 8278 3994 8271 3989 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 323DEG 33KT 3999 8311

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Aiena

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1142 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

OHZ045-052-054-055-101615-
Champaign OH-Madison OH-Union OH-Franklin OH-
1142 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHERN UNION AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO
THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

At 1142 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over North
Lewisburg, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground
         lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or
         death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Dublin, Upper Arlington, Hilliard, Marysville, London,
Jefferson, Plain City, West Jefferson, Mechanicsburg, Choctaw Lake,
New California, Lake Darby, Grandview Heights, Milford Center,
Valleyview, Marble Cliff, Lafayette, Woodstock, and Unionville
Center.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 73 and 95.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 8299 3988 8319 3981 8341 3997 8352
      4001 8351 4001 8355 4015 8365 4029 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 313DEG 22KT 4025 8357

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Aiena

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1155 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

OHZ054-055-063>065-073-074-101630-
Fairfield OH-Ross OH-Fayette OH-Madison OH-Franklin OH-Hocking OH-
Pickaway OH-
1155 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE...
NORTHWESTERN HOCKING...PICKAWAY...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTH
CENTRAL ROSS COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

At 1155 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ashville,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground
         lightning, and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or
         death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Pickerington, Circleville, Canal Winchester, Groveport,
Ashville, Mount Sterling, South Bloomfield, Kingston, Williamsport,
New Holland, Logan Elm Village, Commercial Point, Royalton,
Lithopolis, Frankfort, Fox, Amanda, Stoutsville, and Carroll.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 84 and 85.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 8332 3981 8298 3991 8280 3970 8245
      3949 8274 3939 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1555Z 330DEG 27KT 3979 8295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Aiena