Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
225 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tornado watch now in effect for southeastern Indiana, far southwestern
and south central Ohio, and northern Kentucky.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong storm system moving through the region this afternoon
into early evening will bring the potential for severe weather,
flooding, and gusty winds.

2) Wind gusts up to 35-50 mph expected from early Friday morning
through Friday evening. The highest gusts will occur especially over
areas along/north of I-70, with isolated gusts potentially reaching
55 mph.

3) Warmer and wetter conditions expected Sunday into Monday,
potentially transitioning to a rain-snow mix in the early morning
hours on Monday. Much colder arrives air Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1) A strong storm system moving through the region
this afternoon into early evening will bring the potential for
severe weather, flooding, and gusty winds.

Afternoon severe threat:
Seeing some breaks in clouds and destabilization especially in south
central Ohio and areas of northern Kentucky with dewpoints getting
into the mid 60s. This is the prime area of concern for mid afternoon
development, with all severe threat types possible. The weak cap that
was on the 12z sounding is no longer a factor in this area, with
35kts of 0-1km shear. Area of greatest severe threat is along/east of
the I-71 corridor and south of Pickaway county in south central Ohio.

Wind threat: Strong wind gusts under diurnal mixing immediately
ahead of the front are mixing down wind gusts to 40-45 mph. The
actual cold front ATTM is just entering the Northwest forecast area,
and should sag south and exit the southeast forecast area between
00z-02z. Winds will diminish a bit with the FROPA but still become
northwesterly at 25-30mph behind the front and slowly diminish
overnight.

Heavy Rain/flood threat: Highest threat for flooding essentially
through far southern Ohio/far SE Indiana and northern KY through the
evening. Scattered lines of storms currently over the area will be
followed by more continuous heavy rain immediately ahead of the front
over central IN ATTM. Localized areas could see rainfall totals of 2
inches, but will be over a few hours with repeated rounds. Not
planning a flood watch at this time, but flood advisories/minor road
flooding is possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Wind gusts up to 35-50 mph expected from early Friday
morning through Friday evening. The highest gusts will occur
especially over areas along/north of I-70, with isolated gusts
potentially reaching 55 mph.

A robust and compact low pressure systems pushes through the Great
Lakes Friday, bringing pretty high confidence in wind advisory level
winds, primarily north of the Ohio River. Still greater than 40
percent probability for wind gusts greater than 45 mph for this whole
area, increasing to greater than 70 percent along and north of I-70.
Continue to highlight this in the HWO.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Warmer and wetter conditions expected Sunday into
Monday, potentially transitioning to a rain-snow mix in the early
morning hours on Monday. Much colder arrives air Monday and Tuesday.

The region gets active again Sunday into early Monday as a strong low
pressure system pushes through the Great Lakes. Primarily looks to be
a gusty wind threat at this time, along with a mix of snow showers
with rain behind the strong frontal system. An abrupt change in the
temperatures will be the biggest threat, with lows in the teens
Monday night/Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Additional thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front through
this afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce strong wind gusts along
with a period of MVFR-IFR conditions, particularly at KCVG/KLUK and
perhaps into KILN. A wind shift will also occur behind the
storms/cold front in the early evening, generally in the 22Z/11-
01Z/12 time frame. Winds after the storms and behind the front will
be northwest and may gust at or above 30 kt. MVFR ceilings are
likely to develop/occur through much of the night, before
breaking/improving Thursday morning. Wind gusts will also diminish
late tonight into Thursday morning, but gusts up to 20 kt will
remain possible.

OUTLOOK...Strong wind gusts above 40 kt will be possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...BPP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
236 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>074-077>082-088-121845-
Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
236 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Indiana, northeast
Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and
southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Strong to severe storms are expected through early evening. Damaging
winds are the main threat, but isolated large hail and a few
tornadoes are also possible. Severe threat will end with the cold
front passage early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Windy conditions are likely during the daytime Friday, with gusts
around 40-45 MPH likely, particularly during the morning and
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-121845-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-
236 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana, central
Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Windy conditions are expected during the daytime Friday, with gusts
around 50 MPH likely, particularly during the morning and afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
334 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     9 SW Dublin             39.71N 85.30W
03/11/2026                   Fayette            IN   Emergency Mngr

            4300 block of County Road 850 W. Just north
            of Falmouth IN. Forwarded a public report.
            Damage to pole barn, bulk seed bins moved,
            siding off several buildings, 3 power poles
            broken off at ground level.

&&

JDR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
421 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 WNW Falmouth          38.70N 84.39W
03/11/2026  E46 MPH          Pendleton          KY   AWOS

            KK62 AWOS.

&&

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