Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
818 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Isolated storms possible this afternoon and
evening. Another chance for showers and storms later tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A line of strong to severe storms will move into the region
tonight, bringing the potential for gusty to isolated damaging winds.
The complex of storms will slowly be weakening with eastward
progression late into the night, with the greatest severe threat
near/west of I-71.

2) A drier and somewhat cooler airmass will move in behind the cold
front for Friday afternoon and into Saturday. A secondary cold front
will bring additional showers and thunderstorms on Sunday along with
cooler temperatures for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Over the course of the past several hours, we have seen a surge of
high theta-e to the N/NE overspreading a larger portion of the OH
Vly, including the ILN FA. This is helping further destabilize the
environment, despite the rapid approach of sunset. Although the
BL/near sfc layer will stabilize/cool somewhat past sunset, a
strongly-unstable environment, characterized by MLCAPE >2500 J/kg,
will still be entrenched across parts of the ILN FA, particularly
near/W of the I-71 corridor.

The thermodynamic environment, along with the approach of better
LL/deep-layer shear and forcing, lends itself to some concern for
the maintenance of the storm complex currently upstream in IL further
into the local area than previously expected. This concern is
greatest for parts of EC IN and WC OH where the better overlap of LL
shear and strong instby will evolve as we approach midnight, helping
maintain some degree of organization with the bowing line. There is
an increasing signal, including within some of the recent WoFS
guidance, for the potential for strong/severe storms to impact NW/W
third of the ILN FA around midnight, with damaging winds being the
primary threat as the bowing line progresses E/SE through 2 AM. This
will especially be of concern from about Wayne Co IN to Hardin Co OH
and points further to the NW, including much of WC OH.

There is the expectation for the line to gradually weaken with SE
extent due to a less favorable environment near/SE of I-71. This
weakening will be most pronounced by/after 2 AM as the complex
becomes increasingly outflow-dominant. This being said, the DCAPE
environment will still be plenty supportive of downward transfer of
winds from aloft to the sfc. This, combined with quite a bit of
momentum of the complex, means that the potential for gusty winds
will likely extend well beyond even the maintenance of thunder
itself. It is likely that, at some point within the weakening
organization, that a pronounced outflow will still bring with it
gusty winds even in the absence of thunder. This very well could
reach locales SE of the I-71 corridor near/after 2 AM.

Brief torrential rainfall rates is also expected with the arrival of
the line, particularly in EC IN and WC OH. However, with the steady
forward progression of the MCS, prolonged heavy rain and flooding
are not expected to be a primary threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
A cold front associated with a low in Canada pushes east through the
region on Friday morning. Drier and slightly cooler air moves into
the Ohio Valley behind the front. High pressure progresses across
the area on Saturday bringing dry conditions and near average
temperatures.

Shower and storm chances increase once again on Sunday when another
cold front associated with a low far to the north in Canada moves
through. There could be a window for severe weather as some models
are depicting instability overlapping with increasing shear ahead of
the front during the day on Sunday. The best potential for storms
appears to be in the southeast where frontal passage occurs later in
the day.

Cooler and drier air arrives for the start of next week behind the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A band of SCT VFR Cu along the leading edge of a surge of higher
moisture continues to work its way NE, initiating a few spotty SHRA
in the process. This would only be of concern for KDAY/KCMH/KLCK
through the first hour or so of the TAF period before the focus will
shift quickly to the incoming line of storms expected to be near KDAY
by about 05z.

There is the expectation for a mature, but steadily weakening, line
of storms to progress to the SE near/through the local terminals
between about 05z-09z. While there is some uncertainty regarding
maintenance of TS with eastward extent, confidence is high enough
that included a TEMPO TS at KDAY. Better confidence in coverage and
timing of this decaying complex allowed for TEMPO SHRA to be added
elsewhere at KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KCMH/KDAY for a 2-3 hour period each. The
main item of concern with the arrival of this line will be
abrupt/drastic changes in wind speed, direction, and visibility.
However, these will be added to the fcst as confidence increases in
the likely impacts at each site.

The TSRA/SHRA will push off to the SE quickly by/after 09z, with dry
conditions thereafter.

There will likely be some SW LLWS on the order of about 40kts
coincident with the bowing line of TSRA/SHRA, but this will relax
with the passage of the convection. SW sfc winds around 8-10kts will
go out of the WNW following the FROPA by 09z, with MVFR CIGs expected
to briefly overspread the sites during the several hours around
daybreak. These MVFR CIGs will lift/scatter quickly as drier air
rushes in between 15z-18z in the post-frontal environment.

OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms possible again on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Campbell/KC
AVIATION...KC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
925 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>053-060-061-130130-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-
925 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana, central
Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will overspread the region tonight. A few strong to
severe storms are likely, with gusty winds to damaging winds being
the primary threat. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ056-065-073-074-078>082-088-130130-
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Licking-Fairfield-Ross-
Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
925 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Indiana, northeast
Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and
southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ066-073-074-OHZ046-054-055-062>064-070>072-077-130130-
Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Delaware-Madison-Greene-Fayette-Pickaway-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
925 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Indiana, central
Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will overspread the region around midnight and beyond.
A few strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, with gusty
winds to isolated damaging winds being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.