Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
657 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments to timing of this afternoon's showers and storms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into the
evening. Gusty winds occur Friday behind a cold front.

2) Below normal temperatures late weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
1) Strong mid-level flow with deep moisture will shift into the area
late this afternoon into the evening. Long and curved hodographs will
be in place across our southern areas... especially near a warm
front across our Tri- State counties this evening. Main issue holding
back a more widespread event will be a lack of strong instability
and some doubt as to how far north the warm front reaches during our
relative max in destabilization. The very latest HRRR runs along with
local WOFS window signal the best moisture could stay south of our
CWA entirely.

Where convection does develop, cell mode is likely to be
supercellular. Large hail is a low-end concern, with the main
concerns being damaging wind and an isolated tornado threat. This
parameter space could support a stronger tornado depending on
overlap of all the environmental factors.

KEY MESSAGE 2) As an upper level trough digs into the northeast US,
a northwesterly flow pattern will develop across the middle Ohio
Valley. The lowest mid-level heights occur starting Sunday and
continuing into Tuesday morning. A cold surface high pressure
building into the region Monday night and early Tuesday will bring
lighter winds and the lowest overnight low temperatures due to peak
radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area this evening as a
warm front lifts north through the Ohio Valley. A few strong to
severe storms will be possible into this evening, especially in
vicinity of KDAY. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from the
west overnight as a cold front moves through the region. Until then, MVFR
to locally IFR conditions will be possible with the showers and
storms. In addition, marginal LLWS will be possible into the
overnight hours.

VFR conditions will prevail through the second half of the TAF
period. Behind the front, winds will become westerly late tonight
and increase heading into Friday. Gusts to around 30 knots will be
possible during the daytime period on Friday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
132 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-OHZ042-051>054-060>063-
070>072-077>080-201845-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Darke-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
132 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central
Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Also, localized
flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be possible Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

KYZ098>100-OHZ026-034-035-043>046-055-056-064-065-073-074-081-082-
088-201845-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union-
Delaware-Franklin-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
132 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern
Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Southwest to west wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be possible Friday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
808 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

OHZ042-060-200145-
Darke OH-Preble OH-
808 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PREBLE
AND SOUTHEASTERN DARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EST...

At 808 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Paris,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Arcanum, New Paris, New Madison, Wayne Lakes, Eldorado, Verona, West
Manchester, Gordon, Ithaca, Castine, Interstate 70 at US Route 127,
and New Hope.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 12.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 8468 3982 8481 4004 8465 3995 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 220DEG 25KT 3984 8471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
812 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

OHZ070-071-077-200145-
Hamilton OH-Warren OH-Butler OH-
812 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HAMILTON...
BUTLER AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EST...

At 812 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Forest Park,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Mason, Lebanon, Forest
Park, Sharonville, Monroe, Blue Ash, Loveland, Trenton, Franklin,
Springdale, Reading, Montgomery, Harrison, North College Hill,
Madeira, and Wyoming.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 11 and 32.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 10 and 36.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 8463 3954 8431 3940 8414 3927 8424
      3927 8426 3922 8432 3921 8431 3921 8429
      3917 8432 3925 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 210DEG 29KT 3929 8456

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hatzos