Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
719 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall and the threat of
flooding will continue to be a concern. In addition, some storms
could be severe.

2) Warmer conditions will spread into the area through the weekend.
After the passage of a cold front, temperatures will drop to or
slightly below normal temperatures for the early part of next week
and it will become less humid.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Thunderstorm complexes to continue to affect the area as impulses
track thru the active band of westerlies around the periphery of a
mid level ridge over the southeast CONUS. There is some uncertainty
but an MCV moving across Indiana combined with diurnal heating will
likely lead to additional storm development during the mid afternoon
across west central Ohio and then track across the FA thru this
evening. Overlap of favorable shear and instability (ML CAPE of
2000-2500 J/KG) will present a threat for severe weather. Damaging
winds will be the main threat, but can not rule out an isold
tornados threat given the low level shear.

After this evenings thunderstorms expect a general lull in coverage
of convective activity heading into the overnight hours. Thunderstorm
coverage to increase ahead ahead of a surface front as we head into
Sunday afternoon. Strong heating will yield moderate instability,
with scattered storms developing during the afternoon and spreading
to the east-southeast. Severe storms will again be possible with
damaging winds being the main threat. There is also an isold tornado
threat due to shear profiles.

The environment is still characterized by anomalously high
precipitable water and a very deep warm cloud layer. So extremely
efficient rainfall rates are expected. This could lead to flash
flooding, especially if any areas get repeated rounds of storms. HREF
LPMM suggest that the potential exists for bands of 2 to 4 inches
with locally higher amounts. Therefore, the flood watch has been
continued.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A north-south temperature gradient looks to set up Sunday with
areas along and south of the Ohio River approaching 90 degrees for
highs. Combined with mid 70s dew points, the heat index will be near
100 in that part of the area.

A cold front will move through the region late Sunday and Sunday
night. In the wake of the front, temperatures will fall to or
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Additional thunderstorms have develop in the heating of the day
ahead of an MCV. These storms will move across the area thru the
late evening. Some of the storms may become strong to severe. After
these storms pass, there is the potential for MVFR ceilings to
develop. At this point, the Columbus terminals have the greatest
potential for MVFR conditions. Additional storms are expected to
impact the TAF/s Sunday with a front that tracks southeast across
the area. Southwest winds shift to the west during the afternoon
with gusts up to 20 kts possible.

OUTLOOK..MVFR ceilings possible late Sunday night into Monday
morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-080>082-088.
KY...None.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
336 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
080>082-088-160745-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
336 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, central Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio
and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, some storms could become severe this afternoon into
this evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat, although an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

More storms are possible on Sunday afternoon and evening. Once again,
a few storms could be severe with damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-160745-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-
336 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Indiana, northeast
Kentucky, northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A couple of rounds of thunderstorms may move across the region. Some
storms could become severe this afternoon into this evening. Damaging
winds are the primary threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out. In addition, the heat index will approach 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

More storms are possible on Sunday afternoon and evening. Once again,
a few storms could be severe with damaging winds. The heat index will
be near 100 again on Sunday as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
930 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     Tornado          2 N Saint Paris         40.16N 83.95W
08/15/2026                   Champaign          OH   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Ward Road property.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1004 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Saint Paris       40.12N 83.93W
08/15/2026                   Champaign          OH   Emergency Mngr

            Damage to barn siding and tree damage.
            Possible tornado.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1112 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     Flood            1 S Whitehall           39.95N 82.88W
08/15/2026                   Franklin           OH   Trained Spotter

            High water between in E. Livingston and Main
            Street areas.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1120 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     Flood            1 WNW Dublin            40.10N 83.14W
08/15/2026                   Franklin           OH   Amateur Radio

            Flooding reported at SR33 and 270.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1122 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     Rain             1 NNE Marble Cliff      40.00N 83.05W
08/15/2026  M1.09 Inch       Franklin           OH   Cocorahs

            1.09 inches in 25 minutes.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>