Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted pops a little quicker and QPF higher.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected from this
afternoon into Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will
continue to be a concern.

2) Warmer temperatures will develop over the weekend with lesser
coverage of showers and storms until a cold front moves through the
region Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Active weather pattern to continue overnight into Friday.  Another
MCS moving thru east-southeast thru northern Illinois. This system
will likely dive more southeast closer to the instability gradient
into portions of eastern Indiana and western Ohio this evening. CAM
solutions show a favorable overlap of shear/instability with some of
the storms on the leading edge of this cluster having potential to
become severe. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard,
although a brief tornado and marginally severe hail are also
possible. CAM solutions differ on the exact placement and timing
with the 00Z HRRR having the placement of the current storms.
Following this solution - the most favorable location and time for
severe weather is across eastern Indiana, southwest Ohio, and
northern KY - this evening into the early overnight hours.

Additional storm development is expected where favorable 8H moisture
convergence will setup. Storms oriented from northwest to southeast
to track into ILN/s FA thru the overnight hours and slowly sag south
thru the area Friday morning. Environment is primed for heavy rain
with PWAT values expected to be near 2 inches. The potential for
stripes of 2 to 4 inch rainfall and locally 5 plus in repeated storms
overnight. This heavy rain will potentially affect areas already
hard hit by flooding.

In the wake of this activity, there is not much of a signal for additional
storms the rest of Friday. The flood watch continues tonight into
Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Mid level ridge will build a bit northward over the weekend. This
will push the active pattern of storms north of the area. It will
also allow for temperatures to warm substantially. There will be the
potential for heat indices reaching advisory criteria on Saturday and
Sunday. Convection will be much more limited until a cold front
slides southeast across the region on Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A storm complex will likely dive more southeast closer to the
instability gradient into portions of eastern Indiana and western
Ohio this evening. The potential exists for a few of the storms to
become strong to severe this evening into the overnight hours.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard, although a
brief tornado and marginally severe hail are also possible.

Additional storm development is expected behind these storms and will
sag slowly south thru the area into Friday morning.

Have prob30 mention for initial more scattered storms and then
widespread showers and tempo groups for the storms overnight. VFR
conditions will drop to MVFR to brief IFR in storms. Expect
conditions to become widespread MVFR to IFR area wide overnight.
Conditions will slowly improve to MVFR by late morning

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR visibilities possible Friday night in fog.
Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Friday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     080.

&&

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
322 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

KYZ099-100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-062>065-072>074-079>082-
088-141930-
Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Greene-Fayette-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
322 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern
Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west
central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, the heat index will be around 100 Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ060-061-070-071-077-078-
141930-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Preble-Montgomery-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-
322 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, southwest Ohio and west
central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
and this evening. Damaging wind is the primary threat. Isolated
tornadoes and large hail are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

The heat index may approach 100 on Saturday and be at or above
100 on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
707 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

INZ080-KYZ089>096-132345-
Switzerland IN-Boone KY-Pendleton KY-Carroll KY-Owen KY-Kenton KY-
Campbell KY-Gallatin KY-Grant KY-
707 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SWITZERLAND...
EASTERN CARROLL...SOUTHERN KENTON...SOUTHERN CAMPBELL...SOUTHERN
BOONE...GRANT...OWEN...PENDLETON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM
EDT...

At 706 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Florence,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Williamstown, Walton, Falmouth, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Vevay, Warsaw,
Owenton, Butler, Florence, Kentucky Speedway, Morgan, Glencoe,
Fairview, Ghent, Sanders, Corinth, Sparta, Patriot, and
Stewartsville.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 50 and 76.
 I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 144 and 172.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 8493 3889 8518 3890 8491 3884 8426
      3858 8423 3856 8439 3856 8442 3854 8442
      3853 8444 3853 8446 3854 8447 3851 8449
      3851 8452 3849 8456 3843 8463 3842 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 306DEG 24KT 3884 8500

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Clark

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