Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Wilmington, OH

418 
WGUS71 KILN 121629
FFSILN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1229 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

OHC017-121639-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-260812T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Butler OH-
1229 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BUTLER COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A
FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 3957 8447 3929 8435 3931 8463 3931 8482
      3955 8481 3957 8480

$$

Aiena

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
611 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch was extended until Wednesday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe weather and flash flood potential remains elevated early
this morning and throughout today, primarily for southeast Indiana,
southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky.

2) Additional rounds of rainfall are expected through the remainder
of the forecast, but periodic breaks of dry weather will also occur.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
At the time of this writing, thunderstorms have erupted over eastern
Indiana along a convergence axis associated with the 850 mb theta-e
ridge. This theta-e gradient will attempt to shift eastward into
daybreak, but it will be competing against the thunderstorm growth
that will resist the movement east. PWATs are not incredibly high,
but they are still anomalous with values around 1.6" advecting into
this corridor. Southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio have received
some rain from the previous rounds of thunderstorms, but flooding is
not actively ongoing. This will require multiple thunderstorms to
move through a localized area to elevate the potential for flash
flooding. The most recent SPC HREF LPMM suggests rainfall maximums
could reach between 4-6" locally. If the band can slip slowly
eastward over the next 3-5 hours, this should limit the more
significant flash flood potential that materialize if the line
remains stagnant.

After daybreak, plentiful heating will take place over the cold pool
air mass currently laid out over the entire Ohio Valley. Surface
based instability values will respond, and will become supportive of
diurnally driven thunderstorm development. The band of thunderstorms
overnight likely determine the eastward extent of the best heating
for afternoon thunderstorms. A shortwave dropping through the lower
Midwest initiates thunderstorms over Illinois and Indiana by the
late morning. Through the afternoon, these thunderstorms will drop
south- southeastward, merging with the remainder thunderstorms
lingering from this morning. Effective bulk shear is a bit lower
today when compared to yesterday's significant damaging wind
outbreak. Large hail and damaging winds are still a threat, but the
higher wind values will be less widespread. Due to the location of
the morning storms, confidence is high that the severe threat would
be favored over southeast Indiana, southwest Ohio, and the western
portion of northern Kentucky. If these mornings storms fail to move
east, the flash flood threat would be higher but the severe threat
would trend lower.

The flood watch was extended through the evening today because the
shortwave could still bring locally heavy rainfall over saturated
ground over central Ohio. The potential is lower, but it is not zero.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
After Wednesday's weather event ends, additional rainfall remains in
the forecast into Thursday and Friday. Additional weak shortwaves
within the persistent northwesterly upper level flow will provide
the potential for additional clusters of thunderstorms and periods of
heavy rain. The focus for the heaviest activity is expected to be
farther south as the front moves through Wednesday night. Therefore,
the severe threat is likely lower even with thunderstorms in the
forecast. Temperatures will also be cooler with area highs ranging
from the low to mid 80s.

Going into the weekend, the ridge builds northward again, pushing all
the way into the upper Midwest. Temperatures will increase as a
result with 90s returning. Cannot rule out lower chances for
thunderstorms on Saturday as the front lifts back to the north,
however coverage should remain scattered due to the lack of better
upper level forcing. That changes moving into Sunday.

The next trough pushes into southeast Canada Sunday night into
Monday. Bulk shear values around 25 knots and significant amounts of
CAPE suggest there will be a renewed chance for severe weather. Drier
air would then filter in behind the front Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thunderstorm complex has developed near the Indiana/Ohio State line -
at the nose of a 30 KT westerly low level jet, where favorable
moisture advection exists. These elevated storms moving south-
southeast affecting the western TAF sites early this morning. This
thunderstorm complex is expected to slowly weaken and progress a
little eastward thru the morning hours.

Upstream shortwave will result in additional thunderstorm development
this afternoon. There is some uncertainty on the exact location with
an expectation that the main impacts from this next complex will
likely be a little west of the current system. Therefore, the best
chances for thunderstorms this afternoon will be CVG/LUK/DAY/ILN.
Activity will diminish after 00Z with MVFR to IFR CIGs possible
overnight with MVFR vsby restrictions due to fog.

Winds will mainly be light and variable early before becoming
southwesterly by afternoon and light and variable tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are expected at times through Friday.
Additional thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through this evening for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

DISCUSSION...McGinnis
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
211 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-051-053-060>063-
070>073-077>082-088-130615-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Miami-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-
Pike-Scioto-
211 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Additionally, several rounds of thunderstorms are expected this
morning through the afternoon. A line of storms could bring an
elevated chance for damaging winds this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances continue into Thursday. A few strong to severe
storms are possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052-054>056-064-065-074-130615-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union-Delaware-Champaign-Madison-
Franklin-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-Hocking-
211 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Ohio and west central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
930 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W West Union          38.80N 83.59W
08/11/2026                   Adams              OH   Public

            3 large hickory trees down on Indian Hill
            Drive property. Neighbors house is damaged
            from fallen tree.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

OHZ026-035-044-121415-
Logan OH-Auglaize OH-Hardin OH-
941 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN AND NORTHEASTERN AUGLAIZE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1015 AM EDT...

At 940 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fort Shawnee,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and
         very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Lightning can
         cause serious injury or death. Visibility will be poor and
         hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kenton, Fort Shawnee, Cridersville, Alger, Waynesfield, Belle Center,
Chippewa Park, Northwood, Roundhead, Rushsylvania, Mcguffey,
Uniopolis, Silver Creek, Jumbo, Huntersville, Walton, New Hampshire,
Big Springs, and State Route 195 at State Route 235.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 115 and 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 8355 4043 8366 4059 8414 4066 8422
      4066 8411 4064 8411 4065 8388 4076 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1340Z 289DEG 38KT 4071 8418

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<35 MPH

KC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
953 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Rain             Milton                  39.79N 85.16W
08/12/2026  M6.00 Inch       Wayne              IN   Public

            Rain gauge maximum 6 inches has overflowed.
            Time estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1001 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Butler             38.79N 84.36W
08/11/2026                   Pendleton          KY   911 Call Center

            Tree blocking KY177.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1012 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 E Falmouth            38.67N 84.24W
08/11/2026                   Pendleton          KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down on KY22 and Ryan Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1017 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE Urbana            40.10N 83.75W
08/12/2026                   Champaign          OH   Public

            Tents sustained wind damage at the Champaign
            County Fairgrounds.

&&