Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Wilmington, OH

663 
WGUS71 KILN 020148
FFSILN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
948 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

INC041-047-161-177-020158-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-260802T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fayette IN-Franklin IN-Union IN-Wayne IN-
948 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FAYETTE, WESTERN UNION AND CENTRAL WAYNE
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

&&

LAT...LON 3953 8530 3979 8530 3979 8522 3987 8522
      3987 8520 3993 8520 3994 8495 3981 8490
      3947 8493 3948 8530

$$

Campbell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
213 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered thunderstorms are expected later today. Some storms may
be severe, producing damaging winds and/or heavy rainfall, leading
to localized flood threats. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Additional thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

2) Active weather pattern continues with off and on showers/
thunderstorms throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Previous AM update:
12Z guidance continues to hone in on scattered discrete cells firing
off across the Tri State after 3 PM today then congealing into more
linear segment. While some severe wind gusts are possible, forecast
DCAPE and CAPE values are not robust.

There is a conditional tornadic threat later today, particularly for
the Tri-State, but much will hinge on how much clearing we have
after the AM rain showers. Large scale cyclonic motion/ascent over
the area, bulk shear around 35-40 knots, and 0-1 SRH values between
100 to 150 m2/s2 near the Tri-State all suggest that isolated
tornadic activity is possible. Similarly, machine learning such as
Nadocast and CSU echo this threat with 2-5% contours across
southeastern Indiana and portions of the Tri-State. However, as
mentioned previously, forecast instability appears more limited,
with only a wedge of 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE moving into the Tri-
State this evening. Much will depend on a dry slot pivoting through/
how much cloud clearing we can advect in.

Outside of the severe threat, we do still have concerns for locally
heavy rainfall. While this morning's 12z balloon sampled PWATs just
above the 75th percentile, as the low pivots, additional moisture
will be advected in this afternoon and evening. For areas that have
skinny CAPE present, high PWATs, and  the possibility for both slow
moving and training storms, localized flooding remains a concern.

--

A stagnant pattern remains in place through the rest of the weekend
as the cut off low aloft remains situated right over the Tri-State,
keeping the ILN CWA on the northern side of the low. This will
continue to result in low clouds, periods of rain or drizzle, and
occasional thunderstorms.

Isolated AM rain showers will transition to scattered thunderstorms
by Sunday afternoon, aided by diurnal processes. As the low opens up
into an open wave, deep layer shear becomes more splotchy in nature
across eastern Ohio however, MLCAPE values should once again climb
to 1000 - 1500 J/kg, which should support a low end damaging wind
threat with stronger/ more organized storms in the eastern OH/ KY
corridor. Highest PWAT values should shift off to the east, however,
with training storms some localized flooding concerns may still
arise.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
The surface low will finally be pulled off to the northeast, pulling
in some drier air from the northwest down into the Great Lakes
region. However, aloft, the open wave trough continues to linger
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region, with deeper moisture
stretched from the Gulf through the Appalachians. This keeps periods
of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast primarily for areas
southeast of I-71 through Monday and into Tuesday. Temperatures are
forecast to remain slightly below average, with highs only reaching
the low 80s.

By mid-week, long range guidance suggests that the trough will
finally be picked up by the more progressive northern jet stream and
get carried off to the east. However, with its departure arrives a
series of shortwaves from the west, continuing our active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tricky forecast with the area of closed low pressure over the region.
Periods of MVFR and IFR CIGs are expected throughout the TAF period
as the low pivots around. Guidance hints at some LIFR CIGs during the
early morning hours on Sunday primarily for KDAY and KCMH/KLCK, but
the signal is splotchy, so did not include at this time. In addition,
periods of MVFR VSBYs are possible with rain showers (see more
below).

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected today, with the strongest signal
for storms near the Tri-State at KCVG and KLUK. However, tried to
time out storms using PROB30s at all sites accordingly. Storms may
linger for some time after sunset, but should die down after
midnight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday,
though with more coverage in eastern Ohio/ eastern Kentucky.

Southeasterly winds this afternoon around 12 knots will occasionally
gust to 20 knots. Winds decrease in intensity after sunset and slowly
shift to out of the southwest overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR conditions are possible at
times through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Aiena
AVIATION...Aiena

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
906 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>062-070>072-077>081-
021315-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-
906 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, south
central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which may be
severe. Storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall, leading to isolated flooding concerns. A
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall will pose a localized flooding threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-063>065-073-074-082-088-021315-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-
Ross-Hocking-Pike-Scioto-
906 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Ohio, south central
Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which may be
severe. Storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall, leading to isolated flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Sunday. Some storms may produce gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall
will pose a localized flooding threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
454 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

INZ058-059-066-073-074-012130-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Ripley IN-Franklin IN-Dearborn IN-
454 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN AND
NORTHEASTERN RIPLEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...UNION COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN DEARBORN COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 453 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Bright, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Connersville, Brookville, Liberty, Salem, Blooming Grove, Sunman,
Metamora, Brownsville, St. Leon, Cedar Grove, Mount Carmel,
Dunlapsville, Whitewater State Park, Goodwins Corner, Mounds State
Recreation Area, Cottage Grove, Penntown, Saint Peter,
Springersville, and Alquina.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 153 and 166.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 8492 3921 8515 3968 8519 3972 8500
      3969 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 191DEG 45KT 3928 8502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
558 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-012230-
Fayette IN-Wayne IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-
558 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...WAYNE...UNION AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near New Castle to 7 miles southwest of Batesville,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy
         rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Connersville, Batesville, Brookville, Centerville,
Cambridge City, Liberty, Hagerstown, Fountain City, Dublin,
Oldenburg, Glenwood, Lake Santee, Franklin, Salem, Waterloo, Blooming
Grove, Columbia, Metamora, and Bunker Hill.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 134 and 153.
 I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 148.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 8530 3979 8522 3987 8522 3987 8520
      4001 8520 4001 8485 3942 8482 3932 8482
      3931 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 210DEG 40KT 3984 8533 3924 8533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
629 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-074-OHZ042-060-070-077-012315-
Fayette IN-Wayne IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Dearborn IN-Hamilton OH-
Darke OH-Butler OH-Preble OH-
629 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...WAYNE AND UNION COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...NORTHEASTERN DEARBORN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...
EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN
HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...WESTERN PREBLE COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO...WESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN DARKE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH 715 PM
EDT...

At 628 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hagerstown to near Dillsboro, moving north at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Oxford, Connersville, Harrison, Lawrenceburg, Greendale,
Brookville, Centerville, Cambridge City, Bright, Hidden Valley,
Liberty, Hagerstown, New Paris, Fountain City, Dublin, West College
Corner, Taylor Creek, Blue Jay, and Guilford.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 134 and 156.
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 4.
 I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 158 and 171.
 I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 8.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 8522 3987 8522 3987 8520 4000 8520
      4000 8481 4014 8481 4016 8474 3921 8469
      3907 8499 3979 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 199DEG 29KT 3993 8524 3900 8498

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clark