Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
154 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch issued for this afternoon and evening across our
southeast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1) Thunderstorms are expected through early evening,
with severe storms possible, as well as potential for flooding.

Key Message 2) Drier and cooler conditions expected through the rest
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1)

First round of storms have generally pushed through the region, with
increasing coverage of storms especially in the Tri State and central
Ohio areas at this time. This round has much with greater potential
for strong/severe storms largely through 22-00z. Keeping an eye on
singular/discrete cells and potential for rotation/a tornado or 2 is
possible. Damaging winds remain the main threat though.  Flood watch
was expanded just slightly north as PW values at/just above 2" are
yielding very efficient heavy rain in the thunderstorms this morning.
While overall storms should be progressive, repeated storms over the
same area has prompted the slightly expanded Flood Watch.

Regional atmosphere able to destabilize following morning convection
ahead of the main shortwave trough over the Great Lakes, with
mesoanalysis indicating the potential for SB CAPES recovering to 3000
J/Kg. With the main frontal boundary stretching from NW Ohio into
north Central Indiana, the severe threat is diminishing for the far NW
quadrant of our CWA. Best chance for convective development/severe
storms will be along and ahead of the pre frontal trough -
essentially along/south of I70, with the greatest potential in areas
near/south of the Ohio River and south central/central Ohio. The
main threat with the 50-60kts of bulk shear will be damaging winds,
and with 0-1km shear is 20-25kts in this area, a tornado or 2 can't
be ruled out. The main threat for discrete/rotating storms will be in
the early part of the storm event, largely before 21z, with the
potential for a QLCS continuing through the region - exiting by 00z.

Key Message 2)

High pressure will build into the region behind the front for mid
week. Calmer/drier/cooler weather is expected into the late week.
Temperatures will then begin to slowly moderate toward more
seasonable values as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
In anticipation of additional convective development, with remaining
uncertainty for especially KDAY/KCMH/KLCK, have tweaked potential
timing of the thunderstorms slightly earlier, with TEMPO
thunderstorms largely from 18-22z, though isolated thunderstorms
between 22-00z didn't warrant a tempo or prob at this time.

Gusty winds in excess of 40 knots and very heavy rainfall will be
possible with thunderstorms through 22-00z, and as the frontal
boundary sinks through the area between 21-02z, winds will shift to NW
and gust to near 25kts and then diminish shortly after FROPA.

Drier air moving in behind the front will also lead to a decreasing
cloud trend overnight into Wednesday. Expecting possible MVFR to even
IFR at KLUK.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ073-074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ089>100.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...JDR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1139 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-
060>065-070>072-221545-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Hardin-
Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-
1139 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Occasional thunderstorms are expected into this evening. Some severe
storms will be possible, especially this afternoon into evening.
Damaging wind will be the primary threat. Large hail and an isolated
tornado will also be possible.

In addition, some of the storms will be capable of producing very
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-077>082-088-221545-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1139 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern
Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Occasional thunderstorms are expected into this evening. Some severe
storms will be possible, especially this afternoon into evening.
Damaging wind will be the primary threat. Large hail and an isolated
tornado will also be possible.

In addition, some of the storms will be capable of producing very
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
409 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNE New Richmond      38.99N 84.26W
07/21/2026                   Clermont           OH   Amateur Radio

            Numerous trees into several homes on Wilson
            Dunham Hill Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
410 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

OHZ055-056-065-212045-
Licking OH-Fairfield OH-Franklin OH-
410 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN...FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN LICKING COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

At 410 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Baltimore,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Lancaster, Reynoldsburg, Pickerington, Heath, Pataskala,
Canal Winchester, Baltimore, Buckeye Lake, Hebron, Bremen,
Millersport, Pleasantville, Harbor Hills, Fairfield Beach, Thornport,
Etna, Royalton, Lithopolis, and Thurston.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 111 and 142, and near
mile marker 144.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 8220 3995 8223 3991 8223 3993 8246
      3984 8247 3983 8240 3975 8240 3974 8237
      3971 8237 3969 8283 3999 8281 4004 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 255DEG 38KT 3981 8268

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Clark

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
428 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 ESE Sabina            39.46N 83.52W
07/21/2026                   Fayette            OH   Trained Spotter

            Small branches scattered about in different
            directions.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
429 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 SW Washington Court H 39.49N 83.52W
07/21/2026                   Fayette            OH   Trained Spotter

            Large maple split.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>