Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
833 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and some thunderstorms will occur into tonight.

2) Hot and humid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MCV moving into southern Illinois will continue eastwards across
Kentucky this evening into the overnight. Convection on the northern
periphery of this feature will spread into southern counties late
this afternoon and continue into the evening, slowly weakening as
diurnal cooling gradually occurs. There is an axis of DCAPE around
800 J/kg just ahead of this band. So, there is some potential for
gusty winds into the early evening with any storms, but the
possibility of a severe storm is very low. Locally heavy rainfall
from very efficient storms will continue to be a concern with
precipitable water around 1.8 inches and a deep warm cloud layer. It
seems like this will be progressive enough to keep flooding
potential isolated.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Broad, anomalously strong mid level ridge, peaking over 2 sigma,
will extend across the Ohio Valley, and then some, Monday through
Thursday. As has been well advertised, it will be hot and humid as a
result. Heat advisory conditions may develop near and west of I-75 on
Monday. Will almost certainly exceed the heat advisory threshold
Tuesday through Thursday. Most likely that will continue into Friday,
although the ridge may start to get suppressed southward by then.
Probability of meeting or exceeding the extreme heat warning
threshold of 105 peaks on Thursday around 35 percent near and south
of the Ohio River. Over time, there could eventually be some isolated
diurnal convection, but coverage should be limited enough to have no
effect on the maximum heat index for any particular day. The ridge
will get suppressed substantially on Saturday as a strong short wave
moves from the Great Lakes into New England which will bring an
increase chance of convection and temperatures that are not quite so
hot.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly VFR ceilings in play across much of the local airspace, but
seeing some MVFR cloud decks where showers are located. A larger
complex of showers and storms continues to move east across western
and central KY, with storms on the northern edge getting into N KY
and SE IN. Introduced TEMPOs for CVG/LUK this evening. Farther north,
scattered showers continue drifting northeast along a couple of
lingering boundaries. DAY seeing rain currently with coverage more
spotty and potentially lasting a tad longer toward CMH/LCK.

Given abundant low level moisture in place tonight and Sunday,
expect IFR ceilings tonight into Sunday morning. Still some
uncertainty as to how ceilings evolve Sunday, but at least MVFR
ceilings look to hold through the morning before returning to low-end
VFR Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR visibilities possible Sunday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...JCG/35

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1115 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>072-077>082-088-281515-
Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
1115 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Indiana, northeast
Kentucky, northern Kentucky, south central Ohio and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon into the
evening. Storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The heat index will approach 100 on Monday and then be at or above
100 Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-281515-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-
1115 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana, central
Ohio, south central Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The heat index will approach 100 on Monday and then be at or above
100 Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
829 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

INZ073-074-280100-
Ripley IN-Dearborn IN-
829 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF RIPLEY
AND DEARBORN COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

At 828 PM EDT, a rapidly developing thunderstorm was located near
Versailles, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Aurora, Bright, Hidden Valley, Versailles,
Milan, Osgood, Dillsboro, Moores Hill, Guilford, Wilmington, Logan,
Manchester, Sunman, St. Leon, Holton, West Harrison, Rexville, and
Cold Springs.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 154 and 171.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3912 8544 3931 8508 3930 8482 3910 8483
      3909 8484 3900 8500 3891 8525 3891 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 245DEG 24KT 3901 8521

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JDR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
901 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

INZ073-074-OHZ077-280145-
Ripley IN-Dearborn IN-Hamilton OH-
901 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN RIPLEY...
DEARBORN AND NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 901 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Moores Hill,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison, Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Aurora, Bright, Hidden Valley,
Cleves, Versailles, Milan, Dillsboro, Shawnee, Moores Hill, Taylor
Creek, Miami Heights, Blue Jay, Mack, Dry Ridge, Guilford,
Wilmington, and Logan.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 156 and 171.
 I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 12.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 8508 3930 8467 3918 8464 3914 8473
      3914 8476 3911 8479 3910 8483 3908 8486
      3892 8521 3912 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 243DEG 24KT 3910 8505

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JDR