Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
243 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes with the latest forecast
package. Aviation section updated with the routine 18Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and isolated storm chances continue through
Saturday.

2) Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday night as
a cold frontal system drops south across the area.

3) High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches today and
Saturday. Strong South to North longshore current at east to
southeast facing beaches today.

4) Small craft advisory in effect for the NC Coastal waters from
Surf City to Little River Inlet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerous heat and isolated storm chances continue
through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... As of this afternoon Wilmington (ILM)
has recorded 3 consecutive days of 100 degree heat for the first
time since 2012. This is only the third time this has occurred in
the period of record, dating back to April of 1874. This period of
unusual heat will continue on Saturday with temperatures expected to
reach the mid and upper 90s.

A few thunderstorms (and clusters of thunderstorms) are developing
west of the area along the eastern Appalachians, and in the vicinity
of Charleston, SC. Moisture to our south, weak mid level impulses to
our west, and ample buoyancy should allow convective initiation to
progress toward the Piedmont later this afternoon. Downdraft CAPE
and mid level kinematics are likely to sustain any established
convection to our west and could support a few isolated strong or
severe downdrafts through this evening.

The ridge will be slightly weaker on Saturday, so portions of the
area could see more coverage prior to established convection
arriving from the west. Moisture aloft will be on the rise during
the afternoon, therefore the latest adjustment to the forecast
increased PoPs to an area-wide 40%. Showers and thunderstorm
coverage should increase late Saturday, but this is expected to be
well after peak heating ahead of a cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday
night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Relief from the heat is in sight with
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday
through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the
area.

An upper ridge will continue to degrade this weekend which will
allow above normal temperatures to cool by a couple of degrees on
Saturday. Slightly cooler temperatures and deeper mixing in westerly
flow will keep heat indices a touch cooler on Saturday as well.

Showers and storms increase late Saturday as a mid level trough sags
southward. An approaching cold front on Sunday will bring widespread
showers and thunderstorms and should keep temperatures near normal.
Increased mid and upper level moisture across the area along with
impulses embedded in NW flow aloft should provide multiple
opportunities for much-needed rainfall.

High pressure will be slow to fill in from the north through the
middle of next week resulting in cooler temperatures lasting through
at least early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches
today and Saturday. Strong South to North longshore current at east
to southeast facing beaches today.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Building southerly swell will lead to a
high risk of rip currents for south-facing beaches today and
Saturday. Continued hot weather and weekend timing will contribute
to increased beach attendance - beachgoers should stay out of the
water where a high risk of rip currents is in effect. Conditions
improve on Sunday as the swell weakens, and currently a moderate rip
risk is forecasted for Sunday for south-facing beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Small craft advisory in effect for the NC
Coastal waters from Surf City to Little River Inlet.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...See Marine Discussion Section.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR expected through this evening. A few isolated storms are
possible with the best chance of impacts confined to the inland
terminals of FLO/LBT. Coverage this afternoon will remain
isolated, so did not include this potential in the TAF. Dry sub-
cloud layers are also keeping vicinity thunderstorms rather weak
and VFR during passage. A more organized line of storms is
possible this evening which may allow for a better defined
window of impact. Coastal terminals will likely remain VFR apart
from an outflow this evening. A stronger low level jet should
prevent fog and a dry surface layer favors VFR overnight.
Similar conditions on Saturday, but afternoon storm coverage
should be higher.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR and breezy through Saturday
night. Showers and thunderstorms become more numerous Saturday
night through Monday leading to periodic restrictions. High
pressure to slowly build into the region on Tuesday with a
gradual return to summer-like conditions during the middle of
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong SW flow continues tonight with frequent gusts to 20-25
knots (highest in NC nearshore waters) and seas 3-5 feet (up to
6 feet in NC nearshore waters). Winds decrease slightly on
Saturday as the strongest gradient moves southward. The current
Small Craft Advisory should be allowed to expire late tonight as
mixing over the waters ends and the gradient on Saturday
evening is just below advisory criteria. A cold front drops
southward Sunday with increasing showers and thunderstorms
through Monday. Expect a wind shift to the NE and ENE late
Sunday behind the front and NE winds early next week. Summer-
like conditions gradually return during the middle of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of this afternoon (7/10/2026) Wilmington (ILM) has recorded
3 consecutive days of highs at or above 100 degrees. This is the
first time since 2012 and is only the third time this has
occurred in the period of record, dating back to April of 1874.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-059.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054>056-058.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM

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