Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
302 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-1)The heatwave continues in the near term.

2)Releif from the heat and good rain chances in the offering
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave continues in the near term.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Although the ridge that has been overhead
will flatten in the coming days it will take a more significant
shift in the synoptic pattern to temper afternoon heat below
advisory thresholds through Saturday. The low amplitude aloft that
results of the flattened ridge will help some lower dewpoints to mix
down away from the coast for HI values that remain in advisory
thresholds as they did today. Of lower confidence is areas close to
the coast where dewpoints could remain higher and HI values get
closer to but generally fall short of Warning criteria as they did
today. For this reason and to avoid possibly confusing double
headlines have held off on a Heat Watch for tomorrow especially
after collab w neighbors where we feel HI values will fall short
(except for CHS where higher dewpoints have pooled and HIs of 110+
have materialized).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Releif from the heat and good rain chances in
the offering this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The pattern change needed as mentioned
above may take place on Sunday. The ridge that has been plaguing the
east for quite some time will be shifting over the west-central part
of the nation and be amplifying considerably. This will drive a
cold front into the area. With plenty of antecedent heat and
moisture the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, some
storms possibly on the strong side.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR for the most part. Storm coverage much lower today and favoring
NC and less so the seabreeze. FLO probably stays dry.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight
restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for
periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening
showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms
possible Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Little to no deviations from SW flow as
typical of the time of year. Wind speeds do increase Thursday into
Friday as Atlantic High retrogrades and the Piedmont trough
strengthens. A window of SCA late Friday or Friday night. A cold
front on Sunday will bring veering winds even as speeds tick down a
bit, but wave faces could still steepen from the directional
variability.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-
     099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039-
     054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
640 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

NCZ105-106-082330-
Coastal Pender NC-Inland Pender NC-
640 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PENDER COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 640 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Topsail, or 7 miles west of Surf City. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Surf City, Hampstead, Topsail Beach, Topsail, Woodside, and Edgecomb.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 7758 3430 7770 3437 7781 3438 7781
      3439 7783 3438 7784 3440 7787 3454 7779
      3449 7758 3447 7757 3447 7756 3446 7754
      3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 193DEG 1KT 3441 7769

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SCALORA