Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
645 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Convection late this morning through this afternoon
could bring the threat of isolated severe storms to the area.

2) Another cold front will bring some more rainfall late
Wednesday into early Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Convection late this morning through this
afternoon could bring the threat of isolated severe storms to
the area.

The afternoon seabreeze and an evening cold front will lead to
showers and thunderstorms today with an isolated severe threat
mainly east of I-95. The environment this afternoon will have 800-
1500 J/kg of CAPE, DCAPE 500-800 J/kg, and bulk shear increasing to
40-50 kts supporting some storm organization, particularly along
boundaries like the seabreeze and front. The main threat will be
damaging winds but hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
Rainfall totals east of I-95 are ~0.25-0.5" and <0.25" further west.
Isolated higher rainfall totals near 1" in storms are also possible
due to PWATs ~1.5", but storms shouldn't be moving slow enough to
where flash flooding will be an issue. The front should clear the
area this evening with showers and storms moving offshore, a NE
breeze limiting fog formation overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Another cold front will bring some more rainfall
late Wednesday into early Thursday.

A cold front looks to approach Wednesday into Wednesday night but
with limited moisture/forcing we don't expect a blockbuster rain
event. However, up to ~0.5" will be possible, especially in NC which
will be closer to the upper forcing. There is some uncertainty
regarding dewpoints and how much instability will develop but there
could be a few mainly elevated thunderstorms. As usual, there is
plenty of deep layer shear to support organized convection and
severe weather but limited instability will keep this risk very low
at best.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions this morning will linger through 13Z but have not
been accounted for in the TAFs due to the complications later in
the day with precip and frontal passage timing. Showers will
likely dip VSBYs <6 SM with storms bringing MVFR/IFR. Isolated
severe storms are possible (mainly damaging wind gusts but
hail/tor also possible) starting late this morning through the
afternoon with the seabreeze. Storm coverage should be better
near the coast. 20-21Z W/NW winds will flip around to the NE
with the frontal passage, winds increasing to 12-15 kts, gusts
near 20 kts. A NE breeze could linger through the majority of
the night, inhibiting fog formation though IFR CIGs may be an
issue.

Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR ceilings could linger into pre-
dawn Tuesday. VFR should then prevail through early Wednesday.
Potential for flight restrictions increases with another cold
front late Wednesday. VFR should return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... SW winds ~10 kts through the majority of the day
ahead of a cold front, with a sharp turn to the NE as the front
moves through in the late afternoon/evening. Winds will increase to
20-25 kts from the SE NC waters to the NE SC waters, with a Small
Craft Advisory in place from this evening through the rest of the
period. Similarly, seas 2-3 ft will increase to 4-6 ft tonight, 7-9
ft for the offshore waters.

Tuesday through Friday night...Elevated NE winds/seas will subside
Tue as high pressure builds closer. Winds will subside first but it
will take a bit longer for seas to diminish with SCA conditions
ending latest for the SC waters toward evening.

Offshore high pressure will then prevail until a weak cold front
approaches later Wed and Wed night. The front should finally move
through Thu night but conditions still are likely to stay below SCA
levels.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ254-256.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/LEW
DISCUSSION...RJB/LEW
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/LEW

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