Beach Hazards Statement 15, NWS Wilmington, NC

977 
WHUS42 KILM 312330
CFWILM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
730 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

NCZ106-SCZ054-010030-
/O.EXP.KILM.BH.S.0015.000000T0000Z-260601T0000Z/
Coastal Pender-Coastal Horry-
730 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

$$

NCZ108-SCZ056-010030-
/O.EXP.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-260601T0000Z/
Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Georgetown-
730 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
555 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 12Z aviation section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Good chances for rain will develop again Monday as low
pressure moves offshore.

2) Canadian air spreading southward could bring temperatures 10
to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

3) A high risk of rip currents is expected at New Hanover and
Georgetown county beaches today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Good chances for rain will develop again Monday
as low pressure moves offshore.

The backdoor cold front that blew through the area Saturday
evening into early this morning should stall out later today
across Georgia. Easterly winds within the cool airmass extend
vertically up through 5000-6000 feet with west to northwesterly
flow noted aloft.

A weak bubble of high pressure moving from the Great Lakes this
morning to the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon should begin to
veer our low level winds more southeasterly with time. A
shortwave trough crossing the Ozarks this morning will get close
enough to the area tonight to develop surface low pressure
along the stalled front in Georgia. Increasing Atlantic low
level moisture plus an ascending plume of Gulf moisture lifted
northeastward and into the mid levels by the developing
baroclinic low should lead to a winter-like shield of rain
developing across the Southeast tonight and lasting into
Monday.

Confidence is quite high that measurable rain will fall across
our South Carolina counties. There may be a distinct edge to
the precipitation across southeastern North Carolina through
early Monday afternoon which may reduce rainfall totals
here. As the surface low pushes offshore Monday afternoon and
Monday night, models develop a separate area of showers along a
new cold front pulled southward behind the departing low. Any
areas that don't get rain from the first half of the event will
probably see measurable amounts from this second wave.

Uncertainty increases on Tuesday about how much rain may linger.
The 00z GFS is essentially dry across the area while the 00z
Canadian and yesterday's 12z ECMWF maintain a wetter pattern.
Questions surrounding an amplifying upper trough along the East
Coast suggest keeping at least some rain chances in the
forecast through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Canadian air spreading southward could bring
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday and
Wednesday.

An exceptionally amplified upper air pattern for early June
should feature a strong ridge along the Mississippi Valley into
the Great Lakes and a deep trough along the East Coast, perhaps
leading to a cutoff upper low near the Outer Banks Wednesday and
Thursday. While the system appears at this time that it will be
located too far east for any wet weather to occur across our
area, a deep flow of Canadian air should bring temperatures
well below normal to the Carolinas.

Forecast 850 mb temp of +7C to +9C is cooler than the
climatological 10th percentile at the MHX upper air site for
early June. An airmass this cool and dry could allow Tuesday
night's and Wednesday night's low temperatures to slip deep into
the 50s all the way down to the beaches. Our forecast low of 54
in Wilmington Wednesday morning would be the coldest June
temperature since 52 degrees was recorded here on 6/5/2023 and
would match another 54 degree morning on 6/9/2017. No record
lows appears to be threatened.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A high risk of rip currents is expected at New
Hanover and Georgetown county beaches today.

A 4 to 5 foot 6 second psuedo-swell will lead to a high risk of
rip currents at New Hanover and Georgetown county beaches today,
especially during low tide. Elevated swells will likely
maintain a moderate, possibly high, risk of rip currents at
east-and southeast facing beaches through  Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR today with only high level moisture/clouds present. NE winds
will be turning to the E and then SE. Clouds lower/thicken from SW
to NE this evening with MVFR/IFR by tonight. Showers and storms will
also spread NE across the region tonight leading to occasional MVFR
vsby restrictions with brief dips to IFR possible in any deeper
storms though such restrictions will be short-lived and at most may
require the intro of some TEMPO groupings.

Extended Forecast...There is a moderate to high potential for
periodic MVFR/IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms late
Sunday night into the first half of Tuesday as a low pressure system
and cold front impact the area. VFR conditions should develop
Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
The backdoor cold front moved across the coastal waters late
Saturday evening with ENE winds 20-25 knots still ongoing now.
Wind speeds are anticipated to decrease slowly through the
morning hours as high pressure over the Great Lakes builds
southeastward. The Small Craft Advisory will expire at 1pm today
as seas begin to fall below 6 feet inside 20 miles of shore.

The front will stall across Georgia later today. Low pressure
developing along the boundary tonight will move east and into
the Atlantic on Monday. This winter-like pattern should lead to
another wave of rain Monday into early Tuesday. While there
won't be an immediate increase in wind as the low moves to our
south Monday, the gradient between the low and a new area of
high pressure building across the Great Lakes on Tuesday and
Wednesday should lead to increasing northerly winds which have
at least a moderate potential to reaching Small Craft Advisory
thresholds. Objective model blends show about a 40 percent
chance that wind gusts across the 20-60 mile offshore waters
could reach the 34 knot gale threshold Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA