Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
336 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe storms likely this afternoon into tonight
  mainly for areas along and east of I-135. All hazards will be
  possible with large hail up to 2 inches, damaging winds up to
  70 mph, and potentially a couple tornadoes. Heavy rainfall
  may cause localized flooding.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected on Friday with additional
  storm chances returning on Saturday and Sunday. Strong to
  severe storms will be possible both days. Stay tuned for
  forecast updates!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Currently, there is an upper shortwave trough over Alberta
stretching into the Northern Rockies with additional troughing
extending from the Northern Plains into the Central Rockies. At the
surface, a low is over southern Manitoba with a cold front draped
down through MN/IA/NE/KS connecting to another low in
central/southern KS. A dryline extends from the southern KS low into
western TX. The pressure gradient has increased across the area
resulting in breezy/gusty winds in eastern KS, leading to efficient
moisture advection and dewpoints in the 60s.

As we continue to move into later this afternoon and tonight, the
cold front will continue to push east/southeast through KS. Storm
initiation is expected along and east of the cold front around 4PM
as convergence and low-level lift increases. Along and east of I-
135, instability will be between 2500-3000 J/kg with 40-50 kts of
effective shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates. Initial storm
development will be more discrete which will support large hail
with sizes up to 2 inches along with damaging wind gusts. While
storms will likely grow upscale quickly into a line of storms
especially closer to central KS given the bulk shear vector is
oriented parallel to the front, the primary threat will
gradually transition this evening to damaging wind gusts up to
70 mph. For areas farther south near the KS/OK border, the LLJ
will continue to increase into this evening. At the same time,
low-level wind shear will also increase as well as 0-3km SRH
with values over 300 m2/s2. This will support a couple tornadoes
in south-central KS into the Flint Hills. Given this risk, a
Tornado Watch has been issued for south-central and portions of
central and southeast KS. Between 9-11PM, convection is expected
to be all linear as the storms to continue to push into
southeast KS, which will decrease the hail and tornado threat
with the primary threat becoming damaging winds and heavy
rainfall. After midnight, the severe threat will decrease with
showers and storms gradually exiting southeast KS into early
Friday morning.

After a lull in showers and storms on Friday, another round of
strong to severe storms will be possible on Saturday and Sunday as
another upper trough moves into the southwestern CONUS. For
Saturday, a shortwave will move into the Central Plains, initiating
storms in western KS that are progged to move eastward in the
afternoon into the nighttime hours. With diurnal heating,
instability will increase to 1500-2000 J/kg with steep mid-level
lapse rates and decent effective shear. This will support damaging
wind gusts and potentially large hail. A couple brief tornadoes
cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Depending on how
activity evolves on Saturday, this may affect Sunday's severe
weather potential. Model guidance continues to hint at a deeper
shortwave moving into the area with the 500 mb jet nosing into
central KS by Sunday afternoon. At the surface, southerly winds will
aid in dewpoints returning to the 60s; however, in our area there
doesn't seem to be a defined surface boundary on Sunday afternoon
though farther south/southwest a dryline looks to setup in parts of
southwest KS into western TX. Given this is still a few days out,
forecast details will continue to be refined, stay tuned!

As we move into early next week, a break in active weather is
expected with mild temperatures in the 70s. Shower and storm chances
may return to the forecast mid to late in the work week, though its
a bit far out to dive into the details of this activity. Continue to
check back for forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The frontal boundary has cleared RSL and GBD with clearing skies
and northerly winds. Cigs are lifting at other sites with MVFR
cigs remaining for southeast Kansas.

As the front marches eastward, storms will fire along the
boundary. Exact location for storm initiation is still rather
uncertain, so PROB30s were utilized for HUT, ICT, and SLN where
probabilities are lower. Storms will reach southeast Kansas
after 00Z.

Northerly winds and clearing skies are expected behind the front
during the overnight hours. Northeasterly winds will increase
above 10 knots between 14-16Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
345 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-242045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
345 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms will develop later this afternoon across Central
Kansas and last through late tonight in Southeastern Kansas. Strong
to severe storms may produce isolated tornadoes, up to 2-inch hail,
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall. A Tornado
Watch has been issued through 9pm for portions of Central, South-
central, and Southeastern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional periodic chances for thunderstorm may occur Saturday
through early Monday. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
Saturday and Sunday.

More thunderstorm chances are in the forecast for mid-week next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
603 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Hail             5 S Mayfield            37.20N 97.55W
04/23/2026  E2.50 Inch       Sumner             KS   Storm Chaser

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
605 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Hail             7 SSW Mayfield          37.17N 97.59W
04/23/2026  M3.50 Inch       Sumner             KS   Trained Spotter

            Report with picture came in via social
            media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
611 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     Hail             4 NNW Cedar Point       38.32N 96.84W
04/23/2026  M1.25 Inch       Chase              KS   Trained Spotter

&&