Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
549 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible late this evening into early
Friday morning. Ping pong ball size hail and wind gusts around 55-65
mph are the main concerns.

- Another round of strong to severe storms may develop across the
area late Friday afternoon and last into Friday night. Large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible.

- A break in the activity is forecast for this weekend, but storm
chances look to return on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently, a short wave mid/upper level ridge is situated over the
area with strong low/mid level moisture advection. Low clouds and
patchy fog continue to impact much of the forecast area early this
afternoon. A trough to the west will continue to deepen and approach
our area. As we move into the early evening hours tonight, the LLJ
will strengthen after 00Z. This feature, along with broader scale
lift, will be more than enough to kick off some storms to our south
and west. This activity will progress northeastward through the
evening hours, reaching our doorstep between 03-06Z. Favorable
instability between 1500-2000 J/kg and shear values around 40 knots
will support a few severe storms across south-central and into
eastern Kansas. Storm mode will be multi-cell or linear with
damaging straight line winds and large hail being the primary
threats. This activity looks to weaken beyond 09Z with only a few
lingering showers across eastern Kansas by 12Z.

Moving into Friday, a thick stratus layer will continue to plague
the region through much of the day as southerly flow and low level
moisture transport persist. Despite this, strong WAA will aide in
temperatures warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Additional
storm chances will increase across the area for Friday afternoon and
Friday evening as the trough begins to pass over the Central Plains.
This feature will drive a cold front into the area by the evening
hours. Previous concerns about storms firing along the dryline have
lessened as it appears the cold frontal boundary will overtake the
dryline before it reaches central Kansas. As such, storm mode will
likely be linear as the front interacts with the warm moist
environment across south-central and southeast Kansas and drives
convective initiation. The main hazard concern with this activity
will be damaging straight line winds with large hail and a few
tornadoes remaining a possibility through initial development of
storms. The frontal boundary, and consequently the storm threat,
will push off to the east between 06-09Z.

For the weekend into early next week, zonal flow will take over and
a more stable pattern is expected. Temperatures on Saturday will
cool off behind the front to near normal, with temperatures
rebounding on Sunday and Monday into the middle to upper 70s. By
Tuesday, strong moisture advection will return with continued well
above normal temperatures. A couple of frontal boundaries look to
dive across the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to a
prolonged time frame for possible shower and thunderstorm
development. Given the time of year and the state of the
environment, another chance for severe weather looks possible
with this activity. There's still plenty of time to iron out the
details of this next event.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Multiple aviation hazards over the coming TAF period with low
CIGS/VSBY and a TSRA potential. Widespread drizzle and fog are
ongoing across portions of central and south-central KS. The
reduced VSBY related to the FG will continue through 06Z or so
with improving VSBY thereafter. Low CIGS are expected through
most of the upcoming period. LLWS concerns increase after 03Z as
a 45-55 kt LLJ develops across the area. LLWS will subside by
mid-morning Friday. Finally, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to move across portions of south-central and southeast
KS late this evening and overnight. ICT and CNU stand the
greatest potential for TSRA and have opted for TEMPO mentions
there. Confidence decreases with northward extent and opted for
PROB30 mentions at the remaining sites. A strong cold front will
move through the area near the end of the TAF period, shifting
winds from the northwest and introducing additional TSRA
chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Warm and breezy conditions this afternoon will result in very
high grassland fire danger across central KS, then again on
Friday afternoon across the forecast area. However, rainfall is
expected to largely preclude fire weather concerns.

Very high grassland fire danger may return to the area on Monday and
Tuesday of next week.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF
FIRE WEATHER...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
451 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-062300-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
451 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of fog, dense at times, will continue through at least
midnight across portions of central and south central Kansas.

Strong to severe storms are possible late this evening and tonight.
The primary threat will be hail up to the size of ping pong balls
and 60 mph wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

As we move into Friday afternoon and Friday evening, additional
strong to severe storms are forecast to develop. The main concerns
will be large hail, damaging winds, localized flooding, and perhaps
a couple tornadoes.

Additional storm chances are forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday;
strong to severe storms may be possible with this activity.

Very high grassland fire danger is forecast during the afternoon
hours on Friday, as well as for Monday-Wednesday. However, rainfall
and more moisture should dampen more widespread fire weather
potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict