Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening
  east-southeast KS.

- Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather
  possible Friday afternoon-evening.

- Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the
  weekend, warmup by next week.

- Periodic elevated grassfire danger, highest Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

THUNDERSTORMS:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A sharpening dryline combined with
increasing large-scale ascent immediately ahead an approaching
shortwave should support scattered to numerous thunderstorm
development by 2-4pm, generally east of a line extending from Eureka
to Dexter. Strong effective deep layer shear on the order of 50-60
kts combined with CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg favors severe
weather. However, strong forcing coupled with deep layer shear
vectors oriented mostly parallel to the dryline should favor rapid
storm mergers and a mostly messy storm mode, which should temper a
higher-end severe threat. Still, could see a few supercells with
large to very large hail, especially early on and/or if storms can
remain a bit more discrete. Damaging winds and heavy
rainfall/localized flooding are threats as well. While an isolated
brief tornado can't be ruled out given the decent low-level
buoyancy, unfavorable low-level shear and a messy storm mode should
temper the overall tornado threat. Activity should exit southeast KS
by 7-9 PM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus
continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector, as a
potent upper trough and associated strong cold front/dryline
combination approaches from the west. Strong instability combined
with strong shear should support another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms across the region. Storm mode and associated higher-
end severe potential remains in question, as guidance has been
speeding up the cold front, which would tend to support more of a
messy storm mode, limiting the very large hail and tornado threat.
Location and time...mainly along/southeast of a line extending from
Hillsboro to Kingman between 2-11pm. Stay tuned as we refine
forecast details the next few days.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports
another digging western CONUS trough next week along with returning
moisture/instability, which could spell another couple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms across the region Wednesday through Friday of
next week. Stay tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee
troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above
average temperatures will persist through Friday. The warmest days
look to be Thursday and Friday, when low-level thickness supports
high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As
we head into late Friday through the weekend, model consensus
continues to support a substantial cool down in wake of a strong
cold front, with below average temperatures Saturday and even
possible near freezing temperatures early Saturday and early Sunday
over central Kansas.

Rebounding temperatures back to above average levels are expected as
we head into next week.

FOG:

With rich low-level moisture sloshing back northwest later tonight
into a radiated-out airmass, thinking fog is possible later tonight
into Thursday morning, generally south of a line extending from
Cottonwood Falls to Newton to Kingman. Unsure of dense fog
potential, so will let the evening-night shifts diagnose that
further.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at central KS sites through
the end of the period, while MVFR cigs and vsbys may impact south
central and southeast KS sites early Thursday morning.

Stout westerly winds observed across central and south central KS
early this afternoon are expected to continue into the early evening
before dissipating and becoming southerly. To the southeast,
introduced a TEMPO at CNU for TSRA during the 20-23Z timeframe per
the latest short-term guidance.

While skies are expected to remain mostly clear for central KS for a
majority of the period, low-level moisture flowing in from the south
is expected to result in lower cigs and fog across far southern and
southeast KS. Still not entirely sure if this reaches ICT, so
decided to hold to MVFR for this issuance. Confidence is higher in
MVFR to near-IFR conditions at CNU where greater moisture is
expected to reside through Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

THURSDAY...Increasing southerly winds in concert with low humidity
and warm temperatures should support another round of very high to
extreme grassland fire danger Thursday, highest over central and
north-central KS, where a fire weather watch will likely be issued.
Later shifts may need to consider adding Rice, Reno counties as well.

FRIDAY...Strong northwest winds behind a cold front may support very
high grassland fire danger Friday over central and north-central
Kansas.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...Increasing southerly winds may support more very
high grassland fire danger over central and north-central
Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-
047.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK

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