Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
236 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through
  mid this evening. A marginally severe thunderstorm can't be
  ruled out.

- Numerous/widespread showers and thunderstorms later tonight
  through early afternoon Sunday. Severe weather not expected.

- An isolated severe thunderstorm possible both Sunday and
  Monday late afternoon-evening.

- Better chances for thunderstorms and associated severe
  weather late Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances possible next Friday-
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A subtle mid-level wave approaching from
the west amidst a moist, unstable, and uncapped airmass should
support isolated to widely scattered hit-or-miss
showers/thunderstorms areawide. Poor mid-level lapse rates and
marginal deep layer shear should preclude widespread severe weather,
although the marginal buoyancy/shear combination in conjunction with
the approaching mid-level wave may support a marginally severe
thunderstorm through 10 PM, especially west of the KS Turnpike.
Additionally, anomalously high precipitable waters will support
pockets of heavy rainfall.

LATER TONIGHT--SUNDAY MORNING...Another subtle wave approaching from
Mexico will be the focus for widespread/numerous showers and
thunderstorms well after midnight through midday Sunday, with the
highest chances generally along and southeast of the Kansas
Turnpike. Once again, the primary threat will be pockets of heavy
rainfall and perhaps some localized minor flooding given the deep
fetch of anomalous precipitable waters.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...In wake of the departing upper
wave, thinking large-scale subsidence will overspread the forecast
area by late Sunday, which should tend to suppress additional
thunderstorm development. However, some modest dryline convergence
may support an isolated thunderstorm or two after 5-6 PM generally
along/west of I-135. Given the increasingly favorable combination of
vertical shear and buoyancy, severe weather will be possible with
any storm that can manage to develop.

MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING...Similar to Sunday, Monday's severe
weather threat is conditional, as storm development will likely
struggle given only modest dryline convergence and little to no
upper forcing. However, if a storm or two is able to develop, a very
favorable combination of strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of shear
oriented perpendicular to the dryline would support supercells
capable of all severe weather hazards. Area and time would be mainly
west of the Flint Hills after 5 PM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...This period appears to have the
greatest potential for severe thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave
approaching from the west interacts with a very moist/unstable warm
sector along/east of a sharpening dryline. While there remains some
forecast uncertainty given this is still 3-4 days out (namely robust
dryline convergence for storm initiation may be lacking), the degree
of buoyancy and shear would support the greatest severe weather
threat, with supercells capable of all severe hazards. Regarding
timing, the latest ECMWF keeps the thunderstorm threat through
Wednesday evening given a slower shortwave motion. Stay tuned as we
refine forecast details in the coming days.

NEXT FRIDAY--SATURDAY...Deterministic and ensemble consensus
supports a reloading moist/unstable warm sector by late week, as
another western CONUS upper trough deepens. This could support
another round of thunderstorms (possibly severe?) as we head into
Friday--Saturday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out, stay
tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee
troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above
average temperatures look to likely persist through much of next
week. The warmest days look to be Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday,
when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for
most across the forecast area. As we head into next weekend, model
consensus supports a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with
potential below average temperatures possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A upper level wave will move across the region this afternoon
with scattered showers/storms developing over the area.
Meanwhile gusty south winds will prevail across the area into
the evening hours. Another round of showers/storms is expected
late tonight mainly for locations along and east of the Kansas
turnpike. This activity will spread slowly eastward and linger
over southeast Kansas during the morning hours on Sunday. In
addition, low clouds in MVFR/IFR category will develop late
tonight over southern and southeast Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

MONDAY--TUESDAY...Lower relative humidity west of a dryline amidst
continued breezy/gusty south to southwest winds may support VERY
HIGH grassland fire danger generally west of Interstate 135.
Otherwise, spring green-up amidst rather high daytime humidity
values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas
generally east of I-135 the next 7 days.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
258 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-122000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
258 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Hit-or-miss isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected across the region through mid to late evening. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, an isolated strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out, especially west
of the Kansas Turnpike before 10 PM.

Later tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
from the southwest, mainly over southern Kansas. Locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over mainly
southeast Kansas Sunday morning through early afternoon. Pockets of
heavy rainfall and localized minor flooding will be the primary
hazard.

An isolated thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out late Sunday
afternoon and evening, mainly west of Interstate 135. If a storm is
able to develop, severe weather is possible.

Similar to Sunday, an isolated thunderstorm or two can't be ruled
out late Monday afternoon and evening. If a storm is able to
develop, severe weather is possible.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon
and evening, and possibly again Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are
possible. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming
days.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday...stay tuned.

Very high grassland fire danger is possible generally west of
Interstate 135 Monday and Tuesday, due to low humidity and gusty
south winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict